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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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Yeah, NYC is currently in the top ten warmest Augusts at 78.1. A finish of 77.7 or greater would keep them there.

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Can't really judge that way though since averages naturally decline towards the end of August. It's hard to maintain a high mean like that towards the end of the month. We usually get a shot of autumnal weather after August 20th.
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The 12z GFS develops a low coming off the African coast on Saturday and gets it to about 40W before weakening about seven days later. Behind it, two more waves look to develop. 

 

You can see the system sitting here on the 12z GEFS mean with a strong ridge overhead and seemingly in a low shear environment. The main culprit here appears to be some drier than average air just East of the Islands. Should something survive the trip to 60W, the door to the United States is swinging wide open. The Gulf and northern Caribbean are plenty moist and void of any ULL.

 

gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_atl_35.png

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Too bad there aren't any. :whistle: Seems like we either get the storms and the pattern is bad for a strike or vice versa.

Even 97 managed a long track major Cape Verde storm. Granted it was a fish but i remember surfing the swell for days. This season can not be written off yet. In fact some factors are much better then the last two

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I was talking to easternsnowman. He seems very premature.

I don't know what you mean by premature...makes non sense! 90 or above obviously means nothing, in the cities and nearby 95 or more is  hot for today's climate, but summer has only been about average this year and that's all I was trying to say.

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Guest Pamela

Very true.  90 degrees is relative.  July 14, nothing special, August 14, much more impressive.

 

The average highs on both days are within a couple of degrees of each other...even in mid September, the average high is around 78 F.

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Guest Pamela

Well August is still very summery in general so more heat isn't a shock.

For me the cool season doesn't even begin until post 9/20-25.

 

The warm season runs May through October...the cold season runs November through April...at least from my P.O.V.

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The average highs on both days are within a couple of degrees of each other...even in mid September, the average high is around 78 F.

 

Well yes, but my point was that as we near next week, a 90 degree day is less common.  I'm not saying 90 can't happen during the third week of August, although it seems like it after the last few August's we've had :lol:

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Guest Pamela

To me the warm season ends on Columbus Day and begins on Mothers Day. Cold Season starts on Thanksgiving and ends in mid March when we start breaking 60 regularly.

 

Its a subjective affair and no one answer is demonstrably "right"...though my divisions are also based on the fact that there is little wind around here from May through October with a general increase in overall wind speed starting in November as the mean jet works south, the temperature contrast between the pole and the tropics increases, and convective precipitation loses its significance with regards to the rainfall budget as mid latitude cyclones begin to predominate.

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Guest Pamela

To me the warm season ends on Columbus Day and begins on Mothers Day. Cold Season starts on Thanksgiving and ends in mid March when we start breaking 60 regularly.

 

So the period between Columbus Day and Thanksgiving is essentially indeterminate? 

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Its a subjective affair and no one answer is demonstrably "right"...though my divisions are also based on the fact that there is little wind around here from May through October with a general increase in overall wind speed starting in November as the mean jet works south, the temperature contrast between the pole and the tropics increases, and convective precipitation loses its significance with regards to the rainfall budget as mid latitude cyclones begin to predominate.

 

 

I was talking with someone today about that very point actually, namely how the windy season tends to begin around November 1st and last through late April. Although there's usually at least a slight breeze in the summer months, there's certainly a higher percentage of days in which the mean wind speed is < 1mph (near calm).

 

Looking through my data, my maximum wind gusts for this year so far agree with the Nov-Apr / May-Oct split:

 

Sep '14: 29mph

Oct '14: 29mph

Nov '14: 39mph

Dec '14: 34mph

Jan: 38mph

Feb: 39mph

Mar: 39mph

Apr: 45mph

May: 29mph

Jun: 25mph

Jul: 33mph

Aug: 22mph

 

 

Similar story going further back, save for the occasional strong T-storm that has caused 40mph+ gusts.

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The average highs on both days are within a couple of degrees of each other...even in mid September, the average high is around 78 F.

 

 

90 degree highs in mid September have a much different feel; however, due to the sun angle. The airmass can feel very warm and humid, but the sun loses its "bite" so to speak. Doesn't feel anywhere near as scorching.

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