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The Dog Days of Summer: August 2015 Discussion


dmillz25

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Great news on the heat coming. Its been a solid summer and August proved alot of people wrong

I'll admit that-the "Cooldown" was wimpy and now looks at or above normal for the rest of the month.  Wonder if the super warm water off the coast had anything to do with it (the cooldown being meh) now that we're into August.

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Overnight guidance continues to advertise a warm to hot second half of august beginning on/around 8/15 with the first surge 8/17 - 8/19 as 850 temps are forecast to exceed 15C and approach 20c on occasion. Beyond there, heights look elevated with additional surges of heat possible (8/20 - 8/24)

Yay. More heat on my Birthday like every single year since birth. Especially in 1991.
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The trend for the last 10 years and I feel it will be the norm is for hot summers. This year has been normal for recent years not at all hot. Interior areas of NW Jersey and New York state and also Northern Pa have barely hit 90 outside of the cities there.

 

Yeah deifinitely not an extremely hot Summer, it depends where you are though.  Inland NW Jersey hasn't done bad at all.  I've hit 90 degrees plenty of times.

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Great news on the heat coming. Its been a solid summer and August proved alot of people wrong

It's been a boring summer as far as heat and convection go. Who cares about some low to mid 90s (it's common), I was waiting for some 100s to show up but nope. Very mundane and typical heat.

The heat surge looks interesting for 2nd half of August but will it be record breaking; fingers crossed.

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What does not having to do with hitting 90, have to do with an AN summer? I have had several 90's this summer. Its been a great summer, not extremely warm, but its been warm.

 

I don't know.  I was just responding to him saying that some areas in NW New Jersey haven't hit 90, because most places around here did, including those over a 1000'.

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Just remember that the warm periods never end up being as warm as advertised just like the cooler periods never end up as cool. There is a reason why the averages are what they are. The same can be said about wet/dry periods. 

 

This is a big win for the heat lovers, keep in mind that the average high is dropping and will continue to drop so a high in the lower 90's is now well above normal.

 

610temp.new.gif

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The GEFS ensembles look very favorable for Tropical systems impacting the Southeast United States if they develop West of 60W with a large ridge centered near Quebec and low shear in the Gulf and off the Southeast US coast. All of this as we are nearing the statistical peak of hurricane season. The GFS is finally starting to show hints of a more active season with stronger waves begin to exit the African coast North of 15N. Cape Verde season is starting.

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The GEFS ensembles look very favorable for Tropical systems impacting the Southeast United States if they develop West of 60W with a large ridge centered near Quebec and low shear in the Gulf and off the Southeast US coast. All of this as we are nearing the statistical peak of hurricane season. The GFS is finally starting to show hints of a more active season with stronger waves begin to exit the African coast North of 15N. Cape Verde season is starting.

According to TIp the problem has been the lack of strong waves not the shear per say like we saw in 97 and not the dry stable air of the last 2 seasons.

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According to TIp the problem has been the lack of strong waves not the shear per say like we saw in 97 and not the dry stable air of the last 2 seasons.

Yes,

 

It was nice to see some stronger waves emerging on the 12z GFS. Of course this is all noise for now but we are starting to get close to when we should start expecting things to heat up so keeping my fingers crossed. Can't remember the last time we made it through August without even fantasy storms showing up on the models.

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Just remember that the warm periods never end up being as warm as advertised just like the cooler periods never end up as cool. There is a reason why the averages are what they are. The same can be said about wet/dry periods. 

 

This is a big win for the heat lovers, keep in mind that the average high is dropping and will continue to drop so a high in the lower 90's is now well above normal.

 

610temp.new.gif

 

Very true.  90 degrees is relative.  July 14, nothing special, August 14, much more impressive.

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Yes,

 

It was nice to see some stronger waves emerging on the 12z GFS. Of course this is all noise for now but we are starting to get close to when we should start expecting things to heat up so keeping my fingers crossed. Can't remember the last time we made it through August without even fantasy storms showing up on the models.

waters are running cooler than normal in the south Atlantic which doesn't help

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This could possibly be the first time for NYC that August registers the warmest departure

of summer since that other El Nino summer of 2009. The other developing El Nino

summer of 2002 featured backloaded warmth and August also had the warmest

departure of summer. Let's hope the following winter pattern holds for those

two years if NYC pulls this off.

 

June......-0.2

July.......+2.3

August..+2.1...so far with warm stretch ahead

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This could possibly be the first time for NYC that August registers the warmest departure

of summer since that other El Nino summer of 2009. The other developing El Nino

summer of 2002 featured backloaded warmth and August also had the warmest

departure of summer. Let's hope the following winter pattern holds for those

two years if NYC pulls this off.

June......-0.2

July.......+2.3

August..+2.1...so far with warm stretch ahead

Even today's min in NYC couldn't get lower than a +2.

Yesterday with rain could have been below average, but it as average instead.

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8/6:

 

NYC: 83/67 (-1)

EWR: 85/66 (-1)

LGA: 82/70 (-1)

JFK: 86/69 (+2)

TTN: 85/60 (-2)

PHL: 85/68 (-1)

 

8/7: (so far)

 

NYC: 84/69 (+1)

EWR: 84/67 (-1)

LGA: 82/69 (-1)

JFK: 86/69 (+2)

TTN: 85/65 (+0)

PHL: 87/69 (+0)

 

8/8

 

NYC: 82/68 (-2)

EWR: 83/65 (-3)

LGA: 81/69 (-1)

JFK: 83/68 (+0)

TTN: 83/61 (-3)

PHL: 87/69 (+0)

 

 

8/9

 

NYC: 85/68 (+1)

EWR: 85/69 (+0)

LGA: 84/70 (+0)

JFK: 87/66 (+1)

TTN: 86/63(+0)

PHL: 86/71 (+1)

 

 

 

8/10:

 

NYC: 84/70 (+1)

EWR: 81/68 (-2)

LGA: 81/70 (-1)

JFK: 81/68 (-1)

TTN: 81/63 (-3_

PHL: 79/69  (-3)

 

 

8/11:

NYC: 81/71 (+0) 1.18

EWR: 82/71 (+0) 1..17

LGA: 82/71 (+0) 0.96

JFK: 81/72 (+2) 1.13

TTN: 83/69 (+1)  1.28

PHL:  85/71 (+1) 0.76

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