PB GFI Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 2nd half of AUG brings the heat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 The rain will come in earlier and tomorrow will end up mainly dry except for late day storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 True dat...many here have egg on their face not every el nino August was cool...this is an exception year...It should end up above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 not every el nino August was cool...this is an exception year...It should end up above average... Perhaps it bodes well for winter then if we're fighting against the typical strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty much proves analogs are useless,@the situation that El Niño August temps are usually cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 not every el nino August was cool...this is an exception year...It should end up above average... This summer has the potential to be warmer than 2013 in terms of 90+ days and duration of warmth. May - Sep may wind up +2.5 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Was August 1997 cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 This summer has the potential to be warmer than 2013 in terms of 90+ days and duration of warmth. May - Sep may wind up +2.5 . this could be the warmest el nino August since 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Was August 1997 cool? yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 August through today is cooler than normal across most of the nation: ECWMF for the next 5 days: The 17th-23rd: There should be significant warming in late August; however, to say August thus far has contradicted the analog consensus is wrong. Through August 15th, most of the nation will be near or below normal. August will be cooler than normal across a large portion of the nation. I think we could see a heat wave in late August, though current modelling might be rushing it slightly. The forcing pattern in the tropical pacific argues for continued trough amplifications through the 20th or so in the Lakes/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Aug. 1997 was cool to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 One can see the difference between suburbia stations and urban stations thus far in August, due to radiational cooling allowing for cooler nights. NYC: +2.4 JFK: +2.8 TTN: +0.7 Reading PA: +0.2 Wilmington DE: +0.4 Atlantic City, NJ: +0.1 Allentown PA: -0.6 EWR at +1.2 with some radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 July-Aug 1997 precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 One can see the difference between suburbia stations and urban stations thus far in August, due to radiational cooling allowing for cooler nights. NYC: +2.4 JFK: +2.8 TTN: +0.7 Reading PA: +0.2 Wilmington DE: +0.4 Atlantic City, NJ: +0.1 Allentown PA: -0.6 EWR at +1.2 with some radiational cooling. Yes it can be seen at my station also where after today the departure will be very close to 0 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 KNYC running well ahead of nearby stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty much proves analogs are useless,@the situation that El Niño August temps are usually cool. August 1997 was not particularly cool. 1972 had a nice heat wave centered around August 20. August 1969 had some heat though not concentrated in a heat wave. 2009 had its heat waves in April and August. August 2009 was warmner than July. I do know that some Nino Augusts were cool, such as 1982 and 1994. But I don't see that as an overall pattern. This summer has the potential to be warmer than 2013 in terms of 90+ days and duration of warmth. May - Sep may wind up +2.5 . That wouldn't be hard for August. July 2013 is hard to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Was August 1997 cool? No. My second baby was born right around the middle of August. My wife's last two weeks of pregnancy were not particularly cool. Trust me on that. And the weekend after and the leadup to Labor Day were hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 No. My second baby was born right around the middle of August. My wife's last two weeks of pregnancy were not particularly cool. Trust me on that. And the weekend after and the leadup to Labor Day were hot. The temperature departures were already posted on this page showing a cooler than normal august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 This has been a fairly textbook summer El Nino temperature pattern across the US. Cooler over the Great Lakes across New England and warmer in most other places. But record warmth in the West has been stronger than usual due to the drought coupled with the record SST's and ridging continuing. El Nino summer composite and trend to account for warming over time Summer 2015 temps so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 quite the gradient b/w NNE and the mid Atlantic and even SNE. Imagine that in the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 quite the gradient b/w NNE and the mid Atlantic and even SNE. Imagine that in the winter.... I will be happy with the standard reversal of the pattern for the winter with the warmth along the Northern Tier to the Great Lakes. With close to normal -1 to +1 here and more snow than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I will be happy with the standard reversal of the pattern for the winter with the warmth along the Northern Tier to the Great Lakes. With close to normal -1 to +1 here and more snow than average. elnino.jfm.temp.gif elnino.djf.snow.gif Ripping S+ in DCA from a miller B with light rain in Boston 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Pretty much proves analogs are useless,@the situation that El Niño August temps are usually cool. They can give some ideas, but many variables are involved. ENSO is an important one, but not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 83 NYC: 84 EWR: 81 LGA: 81 JFK: 81 ISP: 79 New Brusnwick: 85 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 PHL: 79 ACY: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Updated weekly sst anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Ripping S+ in DCA from a miller B with light rain in Boston 2009-2010 09-10 shows that we can have a good snowfall outcome without a very cold winter as NYC finished DJF -0.8 and only dropped to 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Pretty much proves analogs are useless,@the situation that El Niño August temps are usually cool. The one generality that usually holds is the NYC finishes the summer with a warmer departure than Chicago. Some El Nino summers in NYC finish with above normal temperatures and others below. But we generally don't get the extreme major heat signal of summers heading into a La Nina or a -PDO pattern like a 2010, 2005, 1966, or 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Might get into some clearing or at least breaks in the clouds by noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Latest guidance continues with a return of warmth on/around 8/15 and potential period of sustained above to much above normal into the week of 8/18... Ridge building east of HI with subsequent troughing into the WC and building heights into the EC. Overnight guidance continues to advertise a warm to hot second half of august beginning on/around 8/15 with the first surge 8/17 - 8/19 as 850 temps are forecast to exceed 15C and approach 20c on occasion. Beyond there, heights look elevated with additional surges of heat possible (8/20 - 8/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Might get into some clearing or at least breaks in the clouds by noon? Noticed that too. Seems like we might clear up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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