SACRUS Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Looking Ahead 8/7 - 8/8: Near normal to slighly above 8/9 - 8/14 : Trough over the NE. Increased rain/storm chances. Days with remain could be much below normal. 8/15 - 8/20 : Above normal regime returns with chance for widespread heat 1-3 days (8/17 - 8/19).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Looks more like a quick convective rain and not an organized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Departures thru Aug 7 NYC: +2.8 EWR: +2.1 LGA: +2.0 JFK: +3,7 TTN: +1.3 PHL: +2.7 Been a tremendous stretch of summer weather since Jul 13. +1.5 here...noticed that JFK has been running significantly warmer temp departures than other sites since June...sensor problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 +1.5 here...noticed that JFK has been running significantly warmer temp departures than other sites since June...sensor problem? No, warm offshore water temps. This cuts down on the sea breeze. More west winds an jfk cooks on a west wind any time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 sorry, i didn't forget y'all, been busy trying to stay active.. and i realized it's a discussion thread and feel guilty but oh well.. i'll derail for one last post! Wow that must have been a sight. I couldn't imagine a tornado like that hitting NYC it would be a nightmare.. there's been a few weak tornadoes in the city in the past, hasn't there? i thought there was one a couple years back, i'll go read up on that shortly..it was a sight.. and there are far too many people here in Rockland alone, it would be an absolute disaster if it ever happened in this county alone! Rockland Co sucks....so does NE I live in the worst area for thunderstorms in the northeast. It's depressing. i'm slowly warming up to it.. it's pretty, not as pretty as Orange county, but man.. too many people here.. I thought you were in a decent spot, think you got a few more storms out your way than out this way, last summer at least..it's been awesome lately, much cooler but way better for enjoying outdoor stuff.. I've been working on the bushes outside and not dying in the process.. it could stay this way for the rest of August and I'd be ok with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Looking Ahead 8/7 - 8/8: Near normal to slighly above 8/9 - 8/14 : Trough over the NE. Increased rain/storm chances. Days with remain could be much below normal. 8/15 - 8/20 : Above normal regime returns with chance for widespread heat 1-3 days (8/17 - 8/19).. Latest guidance continues with a return of warmth on/around 8/15 and potential period of sustained above to much above normal into the week of 8/18... Ridge building east of HI with subsequent troughing into the WC and building heights into the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Cooldown 8/6: NYC: 83/67 (-1) EWR: 85/66 (-1) LGA: 82/70 (-1) JFK: 86/69 (+2) TTN: 85/60 (-2) PHL: 85/68 (-1) 8/7: (so far) NYC: 84/69 (+1) EWR: 84/67 (-1) LGA: 82/69 (-1) JFK: 86/69 (+2) TTN: 85/65 (+0) PHL: 87/69 (+0) 8/8 NYC: 82/68 (-2) EWR: 83/65 (-3) LGA: 81/69 (-1) JFK: 83/68 (+0) TTN: 83/61 (-3) PHL: 87/69 (+0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 The only model under an inch of rain for Tuesday is the GFS now. GGEM the wettest with 3-4". NAM in second with 2-3" and Euro in 3rd with 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 The exact position of the warm front on Tuesday will determine where the best thunderstorm action sets up. We generally do better with these warm frontal set ups during the summer than cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Ive counted 16.5 of 19 weekends or 32 of 39 weekend days since April 5 as being mainly dry and very nice. Been a great stretch of weather. Overall great stretch of summers since the heat of 2010 and subsequent scorcher of 11, 12 and 2/3 of 13, the normal but very pleasant 14 and now 15 as a mild summer. 16 of 18 summer months above normal. If you extend it out to include May/Sep 23 of 28 months above normal. Date....EWR // NYC 5/10: +3.5 // +2.9 6/10: +3.8 // +3.2 7/10: +4.9 // +4.9 8/10: +1.9 // +2.2 9/10: +3.4 // +3.1 5/11: +2.9 // +2.1 6/11: +2.0 // +0.9 7/11: +5.3 // +3.8 8/11: +1.1 // +0.1 9/11: +3.0 // +2.0 5/12: +3.7 // +2.7 6/12: +0.0 // -0.5 7/12: +3.5 // +2.3 8/12: +1.8 // +1.5 9/12: +1.3 // +0.8 5/13: +0.7 // +0.4 6/13: +0.9 // +1.2 7/13: +3.5 // +3.4 8/13: -1.1 // -0.6 9/13: -1.0 // -0.1 5/14: +1.4 // +1.6 6/14: +0.4 // +1.0 7/14: -0.3 // -0.3 8/14: -1.3 // -0.7 9/14: +1.6 // +1.7 5/15: +5.5 // +6.1 6/15: -0.4 // -0.3 7/15: +1.6 // +2.3 8/15: 9/15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 How were the overnight models for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 The euro has forecasted heat in the long term on many occasions must have not verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 The euro has forecasted heat in the long term on many occasions must have not verified. The GEFS agree with the Euro ensembles so this potential looks legit. The Euro has struggled when the OP disagreed with the ensembles. But they are on the same page now. More 90 degree heat looks likely with the potential for Newark to reach 95 or higher between 8/15-8/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 The GEFS agree with the Euro ensembles so this potential looks legit. The Euro has struggled when the OP disagreed with the ensembles. But they are on the same page now. More 90 degree heat looks likely with the potential for Newark to reach 95 or higher between 8/15-8/31. the typhoon going straight west into Taiwan teleconnects to an eastern ridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 It's difficult to get the urban centers sub normal at night due to the lack of CAA in the summer. Overnight cooling is primarily driven by radiational cooling at this time of year. Case in point, 3 out of the past 4 nights have fallen into the upper 50s here, with the 4th night low 60s. As a result, my August temperature departure is 0.0 thus far, following a +0.3 July and -0.1 June. Essentially about as normal a summer as one can get. Mid/late week looks like another period in which suburbia will probably fall into the 50s at night while urban centers are much warmer. Summer to date has been going pretty much as expected with the warm anomalies centered in the SE US and PAC NW. I still believe late summer and September will be warmer than normal for our area. However, I think models might be rushing the warmth a bit. We've seen some strongly negative SOI's lately, and tropical forcing argues for a couple more trough amplifications in the Northeast. My guess is post August 20th will deliver the higher heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 It's difficult to get the urban centers sub normal at night due to the lack of CAA in the summer. Overnight cooling is primarily driven by radiational cooling at this time of year. I don't know if there is a logical inconsistency or disconnect in your assertion...I mean, how were these so-called normals established in urban areas (say since 1980 because I don't think the UHI is any worse now than it was 35 years ago) if it is difficult to get to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 It's usually rain that drives below average departures in summer, especially in the urban areas...when it's sunny and dry, it's hard to get major sites like NYC below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 It's usually rain that drives below average departures in summer, especially in the urban areas...when it's sunny and dry, it's hard to get major sites like NYC below average. With regard to afternoon maxima yes; with regards to morning minima...quite the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 I don't know if there is a logical inconsistency or disconnect in your assertion...I mean, how were these so-called normals established in urban areas (say since 1980 because I don't think the UHI is any worse now than it was 35 years ago) if it is difficult to get to them?They were predicated on the fact that it's usually cloudy or rainy some days. This stretch has been exceptionally sunny and dry so hence the cities haven't been much below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 With regard to afternoon maxima yes; with regards to morning minima...quite the contrary.Rainy days can have low minima in mid summer though because heavy precipitation drives down cold air...if it gets down to 67 or 68 in Central Park due to heavy rain or thunderstorms, that can be the minimum for the day given average lows are like 70. Also, northeast winds in rainy/troughy patterns can bring cooler minima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Rainy days can have low minima in mid summer though because heavy precipitation drives down cold air...if it gets down to 67 or 68 in Central Park due to heavy rain or thunderstorms, that can be the minimum for the day given average lows are like 70. Also, northeast winds in rainy/troughy patterns can bring cooler minima. There is some truth to that; however, summer rain is often accompanied by dew points spiking well into the 70's...making that the farthest one can hope to descend during the 24 hour interlude. Moreover, chilly northeast winds are a rara avis in the July through mid August time frame...often entirely absent during many summers as the influence of the Labrador Current wanes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Upto 81 from a low of 59f. This summer has been a gem the last 6 weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 They were predicated on the fact that it's usually cloudy or rainy some days. This stretch has been exceptionally sunny and dry so hence the cities haven't been much below normal. Day long rain during the summer in this part of the country is pretty uncommon...with the mean jet having retreated to the US / Canadian border and synoptic affairs restricted to places from James Bay north...most of our summer rain is convective in nature...brief & intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 It's difficult to get the urban centers sub normal at night due to the lack of CAA in the summer. Overnight cooling is primarily driven by radiational cooling at this time of year. Case in point, 3 out of the past 4 nights have fallen into the upper 50s here, with the 4th night low 60s. As a result, my August temperature departure is 0.0 thus far, following a +0.3 July and -0.1 June. Essentially about as normal a summer as one can get. Mid/late week looks like another period in which suburbia will probably fall into the 50s at night while urban centers are much warmer. Summer to date has been going pretty much as expected with the warm anomalies centered in the SE US and PAC NW. I still believe late summer and September will be warmer than normal for our area. However, I think models might be rushing the warmth a bit. We've seen some strongly negative SOI's lately, and tropical forcing argues for a couple more trough amplifications in the Northeast. My guess is post August 20th will deliver the higher heights. I agree, radiational cooling is the main cause of cool low temperatures at night in August. Anytime you get a clear sky, and no wind, it helps one get into or close to the 50's, in more rural areas of course. It's been pretty much average here for August as well. We'll see how the heat turns out later in the month and how greatly it effects the averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 July had a big -AO and MJO to support a deeper EC trough. Those signals are weaker the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 July had a big -AO and MJO to support a deeper EC trough. Those signals are weaker the next few weeks. And with that, July was warmer than normal and especially from the 13 - 31st it was 2 - 4 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Gorgeous in Dobbs Ferry. Just a few puffy clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Well the cool August thing is going to be very wrong, which will make warlock extremely happy. I wonder if urban locales could have a +2 or better August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 GFS now one of the wettest models. No run to run continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2015 Share Posted August 9, 2015 Over the last 10 years summers have been about 1 degree above the 1981-2010 normal so this summer will fit in. One thing noticeable is how much cooler the nights especially in northwest New Jersey and Northeast Pa compared to Philly and NYC, sometimes a 20 degree difference this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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