SnoSki14 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Well so much for a cool, stormy August. It looks like it'll end up above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 The Euro and ensembles are showing the heat ridge building over the Rockies and Plains next week. The more conservative ensemble mean is hinting that we could see 90 degrees or higher reach our area as the 16C 850 T ensemble line gets close day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Well, well, 00z GFS caving to the Euro for next week. 6 GFS 7 day precip total. Outstanding weather looks to continue with not much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 6 GFS 7 day precip total. Outstanding weather looks to continue with not much rain. We'll probably have a shot at convection with the passage of the warm and cold front on Tuesday. But aerial coverage with convection is tough to pin down too far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Well so much for a cool, stormy August. It looks like it'll end up above normal. Agree. If miss the storm early next week we're going to get to 8/15 or so with very little rainfall. Typhoon going straight west into Taiwan also teleconnects to an eastern ridge down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 The hr 84 NAM has the low sitting over Lake Ontario. Textbook case for why this will end up being closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 6 GFS 7 day precip total. Outstanding weather looks to continue with not much rain. 00z was wetter and a much longer duration overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Can't see the precip maps but it looks like the 00z UKMET would deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 The 12z GFS gets around 2500 J/KG of SBCAPE into NE PA on Tuesday afternoon. If we could get this to dig a bit further Southeast like some previous runs had we could have a big convection day. There is also a pocket of stronger winds aloft just to our North and Northwest. If me miss out this is going to be a real shame as things look to quiet down for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 ECMWF is back on board on 12z run. Just a bit less progressive, a bit sharper with the trough and a hair more amplified and makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 ECMWF is back on board on 12z run. Just a bit less progressive, a bit sharper with the trough and a hair more amplified and makes a huge difference. storm or convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 storm or convection? Storm, trough goes negative tilt and it spawns a low pressure along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 DCA got a total of .05" of rain. if this were winter there would be mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 18z NAM gets scattered showers/storms in here as early as Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 The 12z EPS mean is even wetter than the OP. Low on the mean passes off the NJ coast, then up through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 First week temp departure here is +1.5 degrees...all that departure is from the max temps as mins have been normal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 Already down to 73 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Today's highs TEB: 84 NYC: 84 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 86 ISP: 83 New Brunswick: 84 BLM: 81 TTN: 85 PHL: 87 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Cooldown 8/6: NYC: 83/67 (-1) EWR: 85/66 (-1) LGA: 82/70 (-1) JFK: 86/69 (+2) TTN: 85/60 (-2) PHL: 85/68 (-1) 8/7: (so far) NYC: 84/69 (+1) EWR: 84/67 (-1) LGA: 82/69 (-1) JFK: 86/69 (+2) TTN: 85/65 (+0) PHL: 87/69 (+0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 The 00z NAM now matches the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 The 00z NAM now matches the 12z ECMWF. This look convective more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Already down to 73 here Yeah, beautiful, comfortable evening for early August. Down to 62F with crystal clear skies here. Feels like an end of August type night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 This look convective more than anything It's a surface low pressure in response to the strong shortwave rounding the base of the negatively tilted trough. You can see here how it has closed off a mid-level center The graphics I posted before is the 12k NAM, not even the high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 Yeah, beautiful, comfortable evening for early August. Down to 62F with crystal clear skies here. Feels like an end of August type night. I could almost guarantee we will only get down to about 65 while you guys end up in the mid 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 It's a surface low pressure in response to the strong shortwave rounding the base of the negatively tilted trough. You can see here how it has closed off a mid-level center The graphics I posted before is the 12k NAM, not even the high res. If that's the case it should look more synoptic. But i can see the response to the shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 If that's the case it should look more synoptic. But i can see the response to the shortwaveThere is definitely convection involved here but it's an organized system. One of the reasons why this has so much potential to really dump. Winds could be quite gusty as well. PWAT's exceed 2" on the 00z NAM with dew points near 70. Wish this would just dig a bit more and close off over SNJ or DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Models are trending wetter for Sunday night into Monday as well with decent CAPE. That looks much more scattered however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 There is definitely convection involved here but it's an organized system. One of the reasons why this has so much potential to really dump. Winds could be quite gusty as well. PWAT's exceed 2" on the 00z NAM with dew points near 70. Wish this would just dig a bit more and close off over SNJ or DE. I see. This looks more a potential than the last one but I don't want to get my hopes up. This could turn out being more of a tstm event which I hope its widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Finally some decent agreement now with the GGEM and GFS both caving. Now if only we could get this to stay exactly as is for the next three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Departures thru Aug 7 NYC: +2.8 EWR: +2.1 LGA: +2.0 JFK: +3,7 TTN: +1.3 PHL: +2.7 Been a tremendous stretch of summer weather since Jul 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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