IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 It still beats all the other models in the overall verification scores. But being the best doesn't mean perfect. Exactly, weather isn't an exact science and particular model bias vs pattern makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Exactly, weather isn't an exact science and particular model bias vs pattern makes a huge difference. We are never going to get a level of perfection out of the models that is going to make everyone happy. But compared to all the misses that I regularly experienced during the 1970's and 1980's, we are light years ahead of then. The forecasters in those days really had a challenge even putting together a forecast under 72 hrs with the poor quality of the guidance. I got to see the old model charts on the difax in the 1980's and they weren't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Another tease, but at least we don't ruin a summer Friday and Sat. driest it's been around here all summer-grass is quickly going brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 sref mean is south. at this rate dc might not get much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 sref mean is south. at this rate dc might not get much The 12z NAM is a little bit better but it does look like this one is going to end up being a lost cause. Just hope we don't end up showery and cloudy for most of the weekend. Either bring the flooding rains or the sunshine. I support whatever is in the best interest of getting the big storm early next week and if that means sacrificing this one to the gods, then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The 12z NAM is a little bit better but it does look like this one is going to end up being a lost cause. Just hope we don't end up showery and cloudy for most of the weekend. Either bring the flooding rains or the sunshine. I support whatever is in the best interest of getting the big storm early next week and if that means sacrificing this one to the gods, then so be it. doubt we even see a shower from this POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 the euro is better in -nao patterns Agree. GFS physics seem to be superior for fast flow regimes. And there is a tendency for more of that in -ENSO, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The 12z NAM is a little bit better but it does look like this one is going to end up being a lost cause. Just hope we don't end up showery and cloudy for most of the weekend. Either bring the flooding rains or the sunshine. Anything that brings clouds and below average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Looks quiet and 3-5 degrees below average next 7 days give or take. Doubting the Euro's fantasy storm for next week personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The drought conditions across Long Island into CT will eventually end. We just need one storm to really overperform with follow up storms in its wake to begin turning the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Shouldn't we be seeing more precipitation due to the strong Nino? It's been pretty dry lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Shouldn't we be seeing more precipitation due to the strong Nino? It's been pretty dry lately. It will hopefully come. August 2011 started off hot and dry and we all know how it ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The drought conditions across Long Island into CT will eventually end. We just need one storm to really overperform with follow up storms in its wake to begin turning the tide. 90dPDeptNRCC.png think August 2002. Bone dry and torrid. Hit Labor Day and it was noreaster after noreaster that didn't stop til the next spring....let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Shouldn't we be seeing more precipitation due to the strong Nino? It's been pretty dry lately.that usually happens in september as the nino approaches its peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 that usually happens in september as the nino approaches its peakMuch like September of 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Euro still locked and loaded for next week although the low develops a little further North so we dry slot a little faster. It still shows 2-3" of rain. The main difference appears to be that it doesn't close off the 500mb low as quickly or quite as far South. The system would have quite a tropical feel as dew points surge into the low-mid 70's as far North as Boston by Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 It's been a nice day out there so far. Clouds up there with some haze, but the sun has been burning through it pretty much all day. 80° and the dewpoint is 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The 18z NAM now shows < 0.10" of rain for the DC area. What a terrible model bust up and down the entire coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 The 18z NAM now shows < 0.10" of rain for the DC area. What a terrible model bust up and down the entire coast. LOL-what a tease. I'm sure we'll do it all again next week too. Give me some heat and let's get some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 KNYC only got a -1.5 departure today. Newark finally broke the 90's streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not if you didnt fall for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Not if you didnt fall for it fool me once....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 not thrilled about all the confluence that has to get out of the way first. i think the gfs is most likely to be rightalways be wary of big precip totals when the models are showing a confluence battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 always be wary of big precip totals when the models are showing a confluence battleHow do you think next week works out? Completely different scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 How do you think next week works out? Completely different scenario.12z GFS was a frontal passage with not much rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 It will hopefully come. August 2011 started off hot and dry and we all know how it ended. 6+ inches of rain here with Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 6+ inches of rain here with IreneAbout double that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Well, well, 00z GFS caving to the Euro for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Well, well, 00z GFS caving to the Euro for next week. something to watch but until we get to Sunday, this one is somewhat fantasy, in the meantime, fantastic weekend shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 7, 2015 Share Posted August 7, 2015 Yep. Wouldn't even pay this much mind until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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