JerseyWx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 7:51 PM, IsentropicLift said: GGEM on crack? Takes the energy sitting near Bermuda and sends it into Nova Scotia. NHC gave it a 40% chance. It's onto something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 In all seriousness, the GFS, Euro, NAM, GGEM and NAVGEM all show some type of development with the ULL energy with moisture over or near our area this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 And of course those big storms skipped over my backyard and redeveloped too far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 7:54 PM, IsentropicLift said: In all seriousness, the GFS, Euro, NAM, GGEM and NAVGEM all show some type of development with the ULL energy with moisture over or near our area this weekend. This would delay the frontal passage and may actually help pull that system in closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 7:58 PM, stormwarn said: This would delay the frontal passage and may actually help pull that system in closer to the coast. You can see looking at H5 how the flow backs onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 12:21 PM, bluewave said: The storm motion is only forecast to be 8KT with PW's of 2.00" or greater. So spots around the region can do very well if they end up under the best training. 06_GFS_057_40.67,-73.5_skewt_ML.gif anomalously warm sst's during climo peak will blunt the stabilizing effects of SE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Of course, the convection didn't touch the city, while a little west got inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 7:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: And of course those big storms skipped over my backyard and redeveloped too far North. Well yeah, I only got a 7 minute downpour and then the sun came back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 7:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: Good job by the 12z RGEM forecasting the area of heavy convection over NNJ today. Where is AG3 to point this out? Rgem has done great over the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 .9" and counting in nw union co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 8:05 PM, Morris said: Of course, the convection didn't touch the city, while a little west got inches of rain. Looks as if the Scotch plains area was the bulls-eye with nearly 5" of radar estimated rainfall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 8:12 PM, stormwarn said: Looks as if the Scotch plains area was the bulls-eye with nearly 5" of radar estimated rainfall . Saw some 3+ inch readings on weather stations, crazy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 19, 2015 Author Share Posted August 19, 2015 Got some ominous clouds to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 8:05 PM, Morris said: Of course, the convection didn't touch the city, while a little west got inches of rain. That's the nature of training convection. The city got hit the last two days while I was bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Zippo here. South Flow off the ocean leading to clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Was beautiful today in Asbury Park...mostly sunmy and light breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 A few potent cells to the north. No severe anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY430 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0418 PM FLASH FLOOD SCOTCH PLAINS 40.63N 74.37W08/19/2015 UNION NJ PUBLIC ALL LANES CLOSED ON US-22 BETWEEN BONNIE BURN ROAD AND MOUNTAIN AVENUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Looks like those cells near Rt 78 are trying to redevelop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Radar now estimating upwards of 8" of rain just to the northwest of Scotch Plains, NJ. Seeing numerous photos of cars submerged under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 I'm sure the terrain of the "mountain" helps drown those on Route 22 and other low lying areas. Hope everyone's ok. Any photos rolling in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 9:06 PM, ForestHillWx said: I'm sure the terrain of the "mountain" helps drown those on Route 22 and other low lying areas. Hope everyone's ok. Any photos rolling in? I may take a drive over there for some photos. I have to look at traffic. Don't want to sit in traffic for two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Moved to scotch plains a few months ago...really flooded over here by "bowcraft" in Scotch plains. Route 22 was/is closed from near mountain ave in Watchung, eastward. Roads near route 22 (martine ave, etc..) were jam packed with traffic. Fanwood got nailed really hard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Mountainside, NJ report 6.24" in 3hrs: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=MTSN4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 On 8/19/2015 at 10:04 PM, Weathergun said: Mountainside, NJ report 6.24" in 3hrs: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=MTSN4 The problem now for those areas of western Union County that were hit hard this afternoon is any additional heavy rain in that area over the next few days will really cause problems with the ground now being so saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Wabc TV news had a reporter at the scene on route 22. Portion of the roadway completely buckled from the flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 http://www.nj.com/union/index.ssf/2015/08/flash_flood_drenches_scotch_plains_closes_route_22.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 On 8/10/2015 at 7:55 PM, BxEngine said: The temperature departures were already posted on this page showing a cooler than normal august. There was at least one record high for KHPN, of 93, on August 17. The month ended hot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 On 8/12/2015 at 3:37 PM, nzucker said: Can't really judge that way though since averages naturally decline towards the end of August. It's hard to maintain a high mean like that towards the end of the month. We usually get a shot of autumnal weather after August 20th. We managed to avoid that in 1970, 1972, 1973, 1983, 1991, 1995, 2005, and 2010. At least after August 24. Some of those summers I was still at camp or away so not sure on all of them. And that's going from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Today's highs: HPN: 85 TEB: 88 NYC: 87 EWE: 86 LGA: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 New Brunswick: 90 BLM: 84 TTN: 90PHL: 92ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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