August 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Okay, back from my vacation and here's the update on the anomalies, meanwhile the seasonal max contest a few posts back has been updated too.

 

 _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

______ (21d) ______ +1.9 _ +3.7 _ +2.4 ___ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.3 _____+1.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.2

______ (22d) ______ +1.7 _ +3.6 _ +2.2 ___ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.3 _____+1.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.1

______ (23d) ______ +1.5 _ +3.6 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.3 _____+0.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.1

______ (24d) ______ +1.6 _ +3.7 _ +1.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.4 _____ +0.6 _ +3.6 _ +2.9

______ (25d) ______ +1.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.0 ___ +0.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 _____ +0.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.9

______ (26d) ______ +1.4 _ +3.8 _ +2.1 ___ --0.1 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 _____ +1.1 _ +3.3 _ +2.9

______ (27d) ______ +1.2 _ +3.7 _ +2.1 ___ --0.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _____ +1.2e_+3.3 _ +3.1

______ (28d) ______ +1.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 ___ --0.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 _____ +1.1 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

______ (29d) ______ +1.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 ___ --0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 _____ +1.1 _ +3.2 _ +2.9

______ (30d) ______ +1.1 _ +3.7 _ +2.3 ___ --0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.5 _____ +1.4 _ +3.2 _ +2.7

..

..

______ (31d) ______ +1.2 _ +3.8 _ +2.6 ___ --0.6 _ +0.5 _ +0.4 _____ +1.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.6

 

(Sept. 1st) _ As of 1445h EDT the final anomalies are all confirmed and the August scoring table below this post is now final (after some issues with parts of it disappearing when edited), also the other tables including annual totals, four seasons award, and extreme forecasts, are all updated. 

[Roger Smith]

 Final scoring for August 2015

 

These scores are calculated from the final monthly values in the post above. High scores are only awarded after time penalties are included.

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS ___ clas ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ exp ___ TOTALS

 

SD _______________________96 _ 34 _ 38 ___ 168 ____ 92 _ 90 _ 98 ____ 280 _____ 448

Roger Smith _______________ 90 _ 34 _ 54 ___ 178 ____ 98 _ 90 _ 78 ____ 266 _____ 444

hudsonvalley21 _____________84 _ 22 _ 42 ___ 148 ____ 92 _ 88 _ 96 ____ 276 _____ 424

Tom ______________________74 _ 20 _ 40 ___ 134 ____ 94 _ 96 _ 96 ____ 286 _____ 420

..

Normal ____________________76 _ 24 _ 48 ___ 148 ____ 88 _ 90 _ 92 ____ 270 _____ 418

..

Mallow ____________________96 _ 40 _ 40 ___ 176 ____ 76 _ 86 _ 78 ____ 240 _____ 416
wxallannj __________________ 98 _ 38 _ 44 ___ 180 ____ 76 _ 74 _ 86 ____ 236 _____ 416
..
Consensus ________________ 86 _ 22 _ 40 ___ 148 ____ 92 _ 88 _ 88 ____ 268 _____ 416

..

Absolute Humidity ___________ 86 _ 22 _ 42 ___ 150 ____ 84 _ 84 _ 92 ____ 260 _____ 410

MidloSnowMaker ___________ 98 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 178 ____ 72 _ 76 _ 86 ____ 234 _ 412

________________ (-1%) ____ 97 _ 30 _ 49 ___ 176 ____ 71 _ 75 _ 85 ____ 231 _____ 407

blazess556 ________________ 90 _ 36 _ 54 ___ 180 ____ 82 _ 74 _ 78 ____ 234 _ 414
____________ (-2%) ________ 88 _ 35 _ 53 ___ 176 ____ 80 _ 73 _ 76 ____ 229 _____ 405
BKViking __________________ 86 _ 42 _ 54 ___ 182 ____ 82 _ 74 _ 78 ____ 234 _ 416
___________ (-4%) __________83 _ 40 _ 52 ___ 175 ____ 79 _ 71 _ 75 ____ 225 _____ 400
Isotherm ___________________90 _ 14 _ 36 ___ 140 ____ 94 _ 74 _ 86 ____ 254 _____ 394
UnionWeatherWx____________72 _ 32 _ 38 ___ 142 ____ 78 _ 90 _ 82 ____ 250 _____ 392
wxdude64 _________________ 96 _ 34 _ 44 ___ 174 ____ 82 _ 68 _ 76 ____ 226 _ 400

____________ (-2%) ________ 94 _ 33 _ 43 ___ 170 ____ 80 _ 67 _ 74 ____ 221 _____ 391

Damage in Tolland __________ 96 _ 38 _ 58 ___ 192 ____ 76 _ 70 _ 48 ____ 194 _____ 386

ksammut __________________ 74 _ 12 _ 40 ___ 126 ____ 68 _ 72 _100____ 240 _____ 366

DonSutherland.1 ____________96 _ 12 _ 28 ___ 136 ____ 82 _ 66 _ 80 ____ 228 _____ 364

dmillz25 ___________________86 _ 14 _ 28 ___ 128 ____ 58 _ 84 _ 92 ____ 234 _____ 362

IntenseBlizzard2014 _________ 82 _ 06 _ 22 ___ 110 ____ 74 _ 92 _ 84 ____ 250 _____ 360

RodneyS __________________74 _ 28 _ 52 ___ 154 ____ 30 _ 98 _ 76 ____ 204 _____ 358

Maxim ____________________ 66 _ 10 _ 28 ___ 104 ____ 82 _ 82 _ 84 ____ 248 _____ 352

Rjay ______________________62 _ 04 _ 24 ___ 090 ____ 78 _ 90 _ 82 ____ 250 _____ 340

Tenman Johnson ____________36 _ 00 _ 18 ___ 054 ____ 82 _ 94 _ 88 ____ 264 _____ 318

Stebo _____________________ 50 _ 10 _ 34 ___ 094 ____ 54 _ 62 _ 88 ____ 204 _____ 288

_______________________________________________________

 

 

Final scoring western contest August 2015

 

 

FORECASTER ____________DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS
 
Damage in Tolland __________ 90 _ 88 _ 84 ______ 262
SD ______________________ 100 _ 60 _ 88 ______ 248

Mallow ___________________100 _ 66 _ 70 ______ 236
Roger Smith ________________90 _ 60 _ 82 ______ 232

MidloSnowMaker ____________86 _ 50 _ 96 _ 232

____________ (-1%) _________85 _ 49 _ 95 ______ 229

Rjay ______________________90 _ 36 _ 98 ______ 224

blazess556 ________________ 80 _ 46 _100_ 226
___________ (-2%) _________ 78 _ 45 _ 98 ______ 221
BKViking __________________ 88 _ 50 _ 92 _ 230
___________ (-4%) _________ 84 _ 48 _ 88 ______ 220
Tom ______________________86 _ 58 _ 76 ______ 220

..

Consensus _________________86 _ 42 _ 90 ______ 218

..

wxallannj __________________ 94 _ 56 _ 60 ______ 210

Absolute Humidity ___________ 92 _ 32 _ 84 ______ 208

UnionWeatherWx____________ 90 _ 22 _ 96 ______ 208

dmillz25 ___________________ 50 _ 50 _ 88 ______ 188

Maxim _____________________50 _ 40 _ 98 ______ 188

Stebo _____________________ 90 _ 26 _ 68 ______ 184

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 56 _ 42 _ 84 ______ 182

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 44 _ 50 _ 88 ______ 182

RodneyS __________________ 78 _ 10 _ 78 ______ 166

Isotherm ___________________ 50 _ 34 _ 82 ______ 166

wxdude64 __________________48 _ 20 _ 98 _ 166

___________ (-2%) __________ 47 _ 20 _ 96 ______ 163

..

Normal ____________________ 70 _ 40 _ 48 ______ 158

..

IntenseBlizzard2014 __________ 40 _ 28 _ 84 ______ 152

ksammut ___________________ 42 _ 24 _ 74 ______ 140

______________________________________

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< ==== UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-AUG ==== >>>>>>

 

 

... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ... provisional June scoring in post 34

 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months

 

Isotherm ____________485_433_442 __1360___568_462_588 __1616__2976_

..

Consensus __________519_351_387 __1257___590_531_570 __1691__2948

..

Damage in Tolland ____597_413_427 __1437___498_550_434 __1482__2919_ 100 001_1_1

wxdude64 ___________475_385_389 __1249___553_508_593 __1654__2903_ 000 000_0_1__JUN

DonSutherland.1 _____ 509_373_405 __1287___573_455_550 __1578__2865_ 101 001_1_1__MAR,JUL

wxallannj ___________ 522_389_393 __1304___533_480_536 __1549__2853_ 101 100

Tom _______________ 461_348_375 __1184___628_492_542 __1662__2846_ 000 100_0_1

Tenman Johnson _____447_369_301 __1117___549_538_636 __1723__2840_ 111 013_0_1__FEB
RodneyS ___________ 486_375_377 __1238___466_576_532 __1574__2812_ 020 120

Absolute Humidity* ____470_380_448 __1298___545_413_520 __1478__2776_ 011 000_1_0

BKViking ____________454_333_396 __1183___531_540_516 __1587__2770_ 010 000

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 560_345_321 __1226___505_506_523 __1534__2760_ 300 021_3_2__APR

ksammut ____________426_424_471 __1321___510_372_552 __1434__2755_ 001 301_1_0

Mallow _____________ 517_380_338 __1235___498_473_538 __1509__2744_ 120 000_1_1__ JAN
blazess556 __________527_317_309 __ 1153___552_476_507 __1535__2688
Rjay _______________ 488_311_339 __ 1138___450_512_538 __1500__2638_ 121 010_0_0__MAY
..
Normal______________394_308_330 __1032___506_418_548 __1472__2504_ 010 201

Stebo ______________ 427_285_291 __ 1003___514_436_515 __1465__2468_ 100 000
SD _________________444_253_256 ___953___526_498_474 __1498__2451_ 000 010_0_0__AUG

Maxim*______________461_300_283 __1044___388_504_438 __1330__2374_ 100 010
Roger Smith _________ 327_290_410 __1027___428_462_440 __1330__2357_ 000 210

hudsonvalley21* ______402_288_284 ___ 974___443_396_510 __1349__2323_ 000 102
dmillz25***** _________ 240_150_120 ___510 __ 116 _238_270__ 624__ 1134 _000 001
N. of Pike****_________ 218_148_159 ___525 __ 196_126_140 __ 462 ___987
metalicwx366******_____ 70 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 __ 204 ___462_ 001 010_1_0
mikehobbyst******_____ 101_108 _ 71 ___280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___136 ___416_ 111 000_1_0

Quixotic1******________ 76 _ 49 _ 60 ___185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 ___405

UnionWeatherWx******* _72 _ 32 _ 38 ___142 ___ 78 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 250 ___392

Carvers Gap*****______ 63 _ 39 _ 38 ___140 ___104 _ 60 _ 80 ___244 ___384

Weatherguy701 ******___54 _ 28 _ 29 ___111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___250 ___ 361_ 000 001_0_1
 

IntenseBlizzard2014*******82_ 06 _ 22 ___110 ___ 74 _ 92 _ 84 ___250 ___ 360

SACRUS *******_______ 78 _ 36 _ 40 ___154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___162 ___ 316
H2OTown__Wx *******__ 56 _ 28 _ 20 ___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____66 ___170
hockeyinc *******_______00 _ 00 _ 00 ____00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____56 ____ 56
Uncle W *******________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____00 ___ 00 _ 30 _ 10 ____40 ____ 40

[Roger Smith]

Western contest annual updates Jan - Aug 2015

 

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west)

 

Isotherm _______________ 504_439_600 ____1543 ______ (4521) = 1 ________ 1 0 2 __ JUN, JUL

Midlo Snow Maker ________413_460_634____1507 ______ (4267) = 2 ________ 1 1 2 __ JAN

Donsutherland.1 _________ 402_430_496____1328 ______ (4193) = 4 _________0 0 0

Damage in Tolland _______ 416_447_449____1312 ______ (4231) = 3 ________ 0 2 0 __ AUG

Roger Smith ____________ 390_341_558 ____1289 ______ (3646) =11 ________0 1 1

Mallow _________________366_428_494____1288 ______ (4032) = 6 ________ 1 1 0

wxdude64 ______________ 491_351_373____1215 ______ (4118) = 5 ________ 1 1 0

..

Consensus ______________412_332_402____1146______ (4094) =6 _________ 2 0 0

..

Tom ___________________378_389_341 ____1108 ______ (3954) = 7

wxallannj _______________ 386_292_375 ____1053 ______ (3906) = 8

RodneyS _______________ 410_285_351 ____1046 ______ (3858) = 9 ________ 2 0 0

SD ____________________ 390_334_287 ____1011 ______ (3462) =16 ________ 2 0 0 __ APR

Absolute Humidity *________352_328_329 ____1009 ______ (3785) =10

Maxim*_________________ 252_321_418 ____ 991 ______ (3365) =17 ________ 0 0 1

..

Normal _________________410_330_222 ____ 962 ______ (3466) =15 ________ 0 1 0

..

blazess556 ______________286_277_382 ____ 945 ______ (3633) =12 ________ 0 0 2

Stebo __________________ 296_250_317 ____ 863 ______ (3331) =18 ________ 1 1 0 __ MAY

Rjay ___________________ 298_244_317 ____ 859 ______ (3497) =15 ________ 0 0 2

hudsonvalley21*__________ 293_291_208 ____ 792 ______ (3115) =19

ksammut ________________268_177_318 ____ 763 ______ (3518) =14

BKViking ________________229_232_295 ____ 752 ______ (3522) =13

N. of Pike*** _____________217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) =21

dmillz25***** _____________ 112_162_166 ____ 440 ______ (1574) =22

mikehobbyst******_________ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =23 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

UnionWeatherWx*******______90 _ 22 _ 96 ____ 208 _______ (600) = 24

H2OTown_Wx*******________70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _______ (366) =31

Quixotic.1*******___________  52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =26

Carvers Gap*******_________ 94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =27 _________ 1 0 0

IntenseBlizzard2014*******___ 40 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 152 _______ (512) = 28

metalicwx366 *******________ 00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =25

Uncle W *******____________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =32

SACRUS*******____________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =30

Weatherguy701*******_______00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =29

hockeyinc*******____________00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =33

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (2840) =20

 

=======================================================

 

* to ******* have missed one to seven months

[Absolute Humidity]

Hats off to Isotherm. Prob the best forecaster of all the internets yet highly underrated.

[donsutherland1]

Hats off to Isotherm. Prob the best forecaster of all the internets yet highly underrated.

He's definitely an outstanding forecaster. I strongly agree.

[Isotherm]

Hats off to Isotherm. Prob the best forecaster of all the internets yet highly underrated.

 

 

He's definitely an outstanding forecaster. I strongly agree.

 

 

Thanks guys for the nice compliment; I appreciate it. 

[Roger Smith]

Agreed that Isotherm is having a good year. Please note, the final scoring reports for August and the annual updates appear several posts back now on page one of this thread. The seasonal max contest (where Tom has a narrow lead) appears even further back. If anything changes in that, I will bring it forward to September's thread.

 

Four Seasons Award, summer 2015 update

 

combines the final summer ranking (Jun-Jul-Aug) with the previously tabulated winter and spring rankings (see May thread for that). Tom won the summer portion of the main contest (six locations) by 3 pts over wxdude64. Isotherm won the western portion by 8 pts over Mallow. Mallow took the "all nine" summer crown by 62 points over Isotherm.

  

Points are awarded as follows: 10 for best seasonal total, then 7 for second place, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th places. Consensus and normal are scored in their ranked position but this does not affect further ranking of participants. The scores marked -- instead of 0 (zero) are meant to indicate that the forecaster was not participating in that season rather than falling short of the top ten.

 

FORECASTER (main contest) ___________ Win __Spr __Sum ___TOTAL

 

Mallow ______________________________ 10 ___ 0 ___ 6 _____ 16

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 5 __ 10 ___ 0 _____15

Tom _________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___10_____10

Isotherm ______________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____10

wxallannj _____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ 3t______10

..

Consensus ___________________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 4 ______ 9

..

wxdude64 ____________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 7 ______ 7

Damage in Tolland _____________________ 1 ___ 5 ___ 1 ______ 7

Rjay _________________________________ - ___ 6 ___ 0 ______ 6

Tenman Johnson _______________________6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ______ 6

DonSutherland.1 _______________________ 0 ___ 3 ___ 3t______ 6

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 5 ______ 5

RodneyS _____________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 0 ______ 4

metalicwx366 __________________________4 ___ -- ___ -- ______ 4

SD __________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ______ 4

Absolute Humidity ______________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______ 4

Roger Smith ___________________________3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ______ 3

Bkviking ______________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ______ 1

blazess556 ____________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ______ 1

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ______ 1

Quixotic1 _____________________________ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ______ 1

 

Normal _______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ______ 1

 

 

(Western contest)

 

Isotherm ______________________________10 ___ 6 ___10 _______26

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 6 ___ 5 ___ 6 ________17

DonSutherland.1 ________________________6 ___ 0 ___ 5 ________11

Mallow ________________________________4 ___ 0 ___ 7 ________11

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___10 ___ 0 _______ 10

Damage in Tolland ______________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 _______ 10

blazess556 ____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ 0 ________ 7

wxdude64 _____________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ________ 7

Roger Smith ___________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ________ 5

wxallannj ______________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 0 ________ 4

Tom __________________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________ 3

Absolute Humidity _______________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________ 2

N. of Pike ______________________________2 ___ 0 ___ -- ________ 2

 

Consensus ____________________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ________ 2

 

Quixotic.1 _____________________________ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ________ 1

hudsonvalley21 _________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________ 1

RodneyS ______________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________ 1

SD ___________________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________ 1

 

(all nine stations -- four seasons award)

 

Isotherm ______________________________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 7 ________20

Mallow _______________________________10 ___ 0 ___10 _______ 20

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 6 ___10 ___1 ________17

DonSutherland.1 _______________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6t________ 11

Damage in Tolland ______________________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ 8

wxallannj ______________________________1 ___ 7 ___ 0 _________ 8

Tom __________________________________0___ 0 ___ 6t_________ 6

wxdude64 _____________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _________ 5

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 0 _________ 5

 

Consensus ____________________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _________ 5

 

Roger Smith ___________________________ 4___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 4

blazess556 ____________________________ 0___ 4 ___ 0 _________ 4

SD __________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 _________ 3

Quixotic.1 _____________________________ 2 ___ -- ___ -- ________ 2

Rjay _________________________________ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 _________ 2

Absolute Humidity _______________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _________ 2

Bkviking ______________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 1

ksammut ______________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 1

RodneyS ______________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________1

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _________ 1

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast table updated January - August 2015

 

 

From January to August these months and forecasts have qualified for an extreme forecast decision. 2nd extreme is only cited where it can win under these rules. No entry there means that an extreme forecast has won the month. This was shown last year as an "A" type win and the others were shown as "B" -- this year I am changing the format but not the actual rules. To qualify, either the extreme forecast of same anomaly sign as actual, or second most extreme, must win high score (or tie). When second most extreme wins, the extreme value is assigned a loss in this table.

 

 

Month ________ Location ___ Anomaly ____ Extreme forecast ____ 2nd extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan 2015 _______ NYC _____ -2.7 ______ -3.5 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) RS _ (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _______ BOS _____ -2.9 ______ -3.3 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 TJ, met ___ (L) RS (W) TJ,m

Jan 2015 _______ IAH _____ -3.3 _______-5.9 Rodney S _____ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) Rod (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _______ DEN _____+3.2 ______+2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.5) ________ (W) Midlo

Jan 2015 _______ PHX _____ +2.2 ______+2.8 Midlo ________ +2.0 Damage __ (L) Mid (W) Dam

Jan 2015 _______ SEA _____ +3.1 ______ +2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.4) ________(W) Midlo

Feb 2015 _______ DCA _____ -8.7 ______ -3.7 Mikehobbyst ____ (-3.5) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ NYC _____-11.4 ______ -5.3 Mikehobbyst ____ (-4.3) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ BOS _____-12.7 ______ -5.9 Mikehobbyst ____ (-5.2) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ ORD ____ -13.1 ______ -4.5 Roger Smith ____ (-3.0) ________ (W) Roger

Feb 2015 _______ ATL _____ -6.8 _______-3.1 Tenman Johnson _(-2.0) ________ (W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _______ IAH _____ -3.8 _______-2.2 Tenman Johnson _(-2.1) ________ (W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _______ PHX _____ +5.9 ______ +4.9 Mikehobbyst ____(+4.7) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ SEA _____ +5.3 ______ +4.5 Roger Smith ____(+3.9) ________(W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ NYC _____ -4.4 _______-6.3 Mikehobbyst ____-4.6 Abs Hum __ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _______ BOS _____ -5.1 _______-8.9 Mikehobbyst ____ -5.1 Abs Hum _ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _______ ATL _____ +3.3 _______+2.7 Roger _________ (+2.1) _______ (W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ DEN _____ +4.6 _______+3.0 Mikehobbyst ___ (+2.1) ________(W) Mike

Mar 2015 _______ PHX _____ +7.0 _______+4.0 Roger ________ (+3.6) ________(W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ SEA _____ +4.0 _______+3.3 Blazes ________(+3.3, 5% pen) _(W) Blazes

Apr 2015 _______ ATL _____ +3.7 _______+3.9 Damage _____+3.5 (three) __ (W) Damage, Midlo, Maxim, TJ

Apr 2015 _______ IAH _____ +2.9 _______+2.6 Midlo _________ (+2.5) _______ (W) Midlo

Apr 2015 _______ SEA _____ +1.1 _______ +1.1 Rjay __________ (+1.0) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ DCA _____ +7.2 _______ +3.4 Midlo _________ (+3.3) ________(W) Midlo

May 2015 ______ NYC _____ +6.1 _______ +3.0 Rjay __________ (+2.9) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ BOS _____ +4.4 _______ +3.0 Rjay __________ (+2.9) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ ATL _____ +3.0 _______ +2.9 Midlo _________ (+2.7) _______ (W) Midlo

May 2015 ______ DEN _____ -4.1 ________-2.0 Stebo _________ (-1.5) ________ (W) Stebo

May 2015 ______ PHX _____ -3.4 ________ -0.8 Stebo _________ (-0.5) ________(W) Stebo

May 2015 ______ SEA _____ +3.1 ________+2.1 Isotherm ______ (+1.7) _______ (W) Isotherm

June 2015 ______NYC _____ -0.2 ________ --1.4 ksammut ____ +0.1 RodneyS ___(W) Rod (L) k

June 2015 ______BOS _____ --3.0 ________--2.3 ksammut ______ (--0.1) _______(W) ksammut

June 2015 ______ORD _____--1.6 _______ --2.1 wxdude64 ____ --1.9 ks, Tom ___ (W) ks,Tom (L) wxd

June 2015 ______ATL _____ +2.3 ________ +3.5 Roger ______+2.3 Rjay,damage__(W) RJ,Dam (L) Rog

June 2015 ______DEN _____ +2.1 _______ +2.3 wxdude64 __ +2.2 RodneyS *___ (W) Rod (L) wxd

June 2015 ______PHX _____ +3.2 _______ +2.8 Mallow _______ (+2.1) ________ (W) Mallow

June 2015 ______SEA _____ +6.8 ________ +3.7 Isotherm ______ (+3.5) _______ (W) Isotherm

July 2015 ______ NYC _____ +2.3 ________ +0.9 Rjay __________(+0.8) _______ (W) Rjay

July 2015 ______ IAH _____ +1.7 ________ +2.0 Rjay ______ +1.7 TJ, dmillz25 __ (W) TJ,dm (L) Rjay

July 2015 ______ DEN _____--1.4 ________ --2.2 DonS _________--1.1 Isotherm _ (W) Iso (L) DS

July 2015 ______ PHX _____ --0.1 ________--0.7 RodneyS _____ +0.2 wxdude64 _ (W) wxd (L) RodS

July 2015 ______ SEA _____ +5.5 ________ +5.5 Midlo ________ (+5.0) ________ (W) Midlo

Aug 2015 ______ NYC _____ +3.8 ______ +0.9 BKV, +0.8Mallow** _____________ (W) BKV, Mallow

Aug 2015 ______ BOS _____ +2.6 ______ +0.5 Damage in T ___ (+0.3) _________ (W) Damage

Aug 2015 ______ PHX _____ +3.0 _______+2.4 Damage in T ___ (+1.5) _________ (W) Damage

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

Note: 45 out of 72 possible cases have qualified for this table. DCA just missed in April, fourth/fifth most extreme forecasts were best. May romped all over our forecasts in all but ORD and IAH. DCA just missed in June when it fell to +2.9. July was unusual in that three of the five entries saw the extreme forecast with "loss" status, and two of them were very small anomalies when compared to many of those that make this list. Normal would qualify for PHX in July. DEN missed qualifying in August because three tied for an extreme (+2.0) but a fourth was also over the recorded anomaly at +1.9. DCA and SEA were also fairly close to qualifying but would need to be +1.6 and +3.1 respectively, so they appear to be falling just short.

 

* SD also qualifies for a win here with +2.0 tying for high score (DEN in June 2015).

** Tied score between BKV (4% late penalty) and Mallow (no penalty). Next highest forecast was +0.7

 

Tenman Johnson _____ 7-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 7-1

Damage in Tolland ____5-0

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-1

Roger Smith _________4-3

Isotherm ____________3-0

Mallow _____________ 2-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

ksammut ____________2-1

RodneyS ____________ 2-2

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

Maxim ______________1-0

BKViking ____________1-0

Tom _______________ 1-0

SD _________________1-0

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

wxdude64 ___________1-2

Donsutherland.1 ______ 0-1

 

The search has finally ended for anybody who can over-predict SEA warmth in 2015, at least three have managed this feat in August.

[WEATHER53]

I think it's fair to say that anyone who can finish in the top 10 of any of these contests( and some do it over and over) has a superior idea of weather patterns and the effects on the locales in question.

I remember "Let's Forecast" from like way back.
 

[Roger Smith]

It would be interesting to see what people would predict if they had to submit blind and then we shared the entries after the deadline. My guess is that there would be a wider range, but the contest would probably falter as more people would miss the deadline or even the late period without the buzz of the other entries? Don't know because despite being involved in three of these (here, Ireland, and UK) they all operate like this with open entries. Hats off to Stebo who almost always goes first, he is making his forecasts blind. Or do you guys not check the other entries? I tend to skim down them before posting but it's partly because I'm wondering who is going to be late as I tend to post near the deadline living out here where 06z is a nice civilized 11 p.m. daylight time.