Roger Smith Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 If you're heading out on holiday next week, don't forget to enter the August contest. As always, the challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010) for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Late penalties 1% every 2 hours after 06z August 1st to 18z August 2nd, then 1% per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 DCA: +0.3 | NYC: -0.9 | BOS: -1.3 | ORD: -1.9 | ATL: +0.9 | IAH: -0.4 | DEN: -1.5 | PHX: -0.6 | SEA: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 DCA:+0.5 NYC:-0.5 BOS:-1.0 ORD:+1.5 ATL:+1.3 IAH:0.0 DEN:-1.0 PHX:+0.5 SEA:+2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 DCA:-1.3NYC:-1.5BOS:-0.7ORD:+1.7ATL:-1.4IAH:-0.2DEN:+2.0PHX:-0.7SEA:+1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 DCA: -0.7 NYC: -1.0 BOS: -1.2 ORD: +0.5 ATL: 0.0 IAH: -0.5 DEN: +1.0 PHX: -1.1 SEA: +2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 DCA: -0.2NYC: +0.4BOS: -0.5ORD: +0.5ATL: 0.0IAH: -0.5DEN: +1.0PHX: -0.9SEA: +2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 DCA: -0.5NYC: -0.7BOS: -1.0ORD: -1.5ATL: +1.4IAH: +1.2DEN: -1.0PHX: 0.0SEA: +2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 DCA: -0.1 NYC: -0.2 BOS: -0.4 ORD: -0.3 ATL: +0.3 IAH: +0.6 DEN: +0.8 PHX: +0.9 SEA: +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 DCA:+0.5 NYC: -0.1 BOS:-0.3 ORD:+0.2 ATL: -0.3 IAH: -0.0 DEN: +1.9 PHX: -.04 SEA: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 DCA: +1.4 NYC: +0.7BOS: +0.5ORD: -1.8ATL: +2.0IAH: +3.0DEN: +2.0PHX: +2.4SEA: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 DCA: -0.7 NYC: -1.0 BOS: -1.2 ORD: +0.5 ATL: 0.0 IAH: -0.5 DEN: +1.0 PHX: -0.2 SEA: +2.5 Edited July 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +1.0 ____-0.6 __-1.0 ___ -1.5 ___+2.2 ___+1.4 _______-1.3 ___+0.5 ____+3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksammut Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA_____NY____BOS____ORD___ATL____IAH____DEN___PHX___SEA -.1____-.6_____-.4______-2.2_____-.9_____+.4____-1.4____-.8____+1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +1.3 +0.7 -0.2 +0.6 +1.8 +1.1 +1.2 +0.8 +0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 +0.7 __ +0.5 __ +0.3 _____ --0.5 __ +1.0 __ +1.5 _____ +2.0 __ +1.0 __ +3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +1.0 ____+0.8 ___-0.4 ___ -1.8 ___+1.2 ___+1.5 _______+1.5 ___+1.3 ____+4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 If you're heading out on holiday next week, don't forget to enter the August contest. As always, the challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010) for DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Late penalties 1% every 2 hours after 06z August 1st to 18z August 2nd, then 1% per hour. DCA:-2.0 NYC:-2.0 BOS:-1.5 ORD:-1.5 ATL:+0.2 IAH:+1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 1.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +0.4 ____-0.1 __-0.3 ___ -1.0 ___+1.1 ___+0.2 _______-0.7 ___+0.1 ____+1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA -0.1 0.2 0.2 -2.9 0.4 -0.8 0.4 -1.5 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA +0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 +1.8 +1.1 -1.0 -0.3 +3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 DCA: +1.3 NYC: +0.3 BOS: +0.1 ORD: -2.0 ATL: +1.7 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +0.8 PHX: +0.5 SEA: +2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 DCA: +1.7 NYC: +0.6 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.5 ATL: +1.8 IAH: +1.5 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.3 SEA: +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 LATE! DCA +1.0 NYC +0.5 BOS -0.2 ORD -1.5 ATL +2.1 IAH +1.6 DEN -1.1 PHX -1.0 SEA +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 DCA: +1.9 NYC: +0.9 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.5 ATL: +1.8 IAH: +1.5 DEN: +0.9 PHX: +0.5 SEA: +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Table of Forecasts August 2015 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA BKViking ___ (-4%) __________+1.9 _ +0.9 _ +0.3 __ --1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +0.5 _ +2.2 blazess556 ___ (-2%) ________+1.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.3 __ --1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ +2.6 Damage in Tolland __________ +1.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 __ --1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.4 _ +1.8 wxallannj __________________ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ --0.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.6 MidloSnowMaker __ (-1%) ____ +1.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 __ --2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ +2.4 Mallow ____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _ --0.4 __ --1.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ +4.1 wxdude64 ____ (-2%) ________+1.0 _ +0.5 _ --0.2 __ --1.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.6 ___ --1.1 _ --1.0 _ +2.7 SD _______________________+1.0 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 __ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 DonSutherland.1 ____________+1.0 _ --0.6 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ --1.3 _ +0.5 _ +3.2 Roger Smith _______________ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +0.3 __ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +3.5 Isotherm __________________ +0.7 _ --0.5 _ --0.6 __ --0.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 ___ --1.0 _ --0.3 _ +3.5 Absolute Humidity ___________+0.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.3 __ +0.2 _ --0.3 __ 0.0 ___ +1.9 _ --0.4 _ +1.8 .. Consensus ________________ +0.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.4 __ --1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.1 _ +2.1 .. dmillz25 ___________________ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +0.5 _ +2.0 hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.4 _ --0.1 _ --0.3 __ --1.0 _ +1.1 _ +0.2 ___ --0.7 _ +0.1 _ +1.8 IntenseBlizzard2014 _________ +0.3 _ --0.9 _ --1.3 __ --1.9 _ +0.9 _ --0.4 ___ --1.5 _ --0.6 _ +1.8 .. Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 .. RodneyS __________________--0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 __ +2.9 _ +0.4 _ --0.8 ___ +0.4 _ --1.5 _ +1.5 Tom _____________________ --0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.4 __ --0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +1.4 ksammut __________________ --0.1 _ --0.6 _ --0.4 __ --2.2 _ --0.9 _ +0.4 ___ --1.4 _ --0.8 _ +1.3 UnionWeatherWx____________--0.2 _ +0.4 _ --0.5 __ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ --0.9 _ +2.4 Maxim ____________________ --0.5 _ --0.7 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ --1.0 __ 0.0 _ +2.5 Rjay _____________________ --0.7 _ --1.0 _ --1.2 __ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ --0.2 _ +2.5 Stebo ____________________ --1.3 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 __ +1.7 _ --1.4 _ --0.2 ___ +2.0 _--0.7 _ +1.0 Tenman Johnson ___________ --2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 __ --1.5 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 _______________________________________________________ 23 forecasters, welcome to two new participants this month, IntenseBlizzard2014 and UnionWeatherWx. Consensus is 12th ranked forecast for the first six, and then mean of 11th and 12th for the western three. Good luck everyone, the July scores are finalized and Isotherm leads both contests. Also the seasonal max contest is updated through July 31st and will be migrating over to this thread next time I find occasion to update the scores. That contest is really close and almost everyone probably has a chance to win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 So, first report on the anomalies ... DEN estimated as report for 4th, the 5th was quite a hot day (96/59). ______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA _____ (5d) _____ +4.5 __ +4.6 __ +4.2 ____ +0.6 __ +3.3 __ +1.4 ____ +3.0e__ +3.4 __ +4.1 ____ (p12d) ____ +2.5 __ +2.5 __ +1.0 ____ +0.8 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ____ +3.0 __ +2.5 __ +1.0 ____ (p21d) ____ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.0 ____ +0.5 __ +1.0 __ +1.5 ____ +2.5 __ +2.0 __ +1.0 The seasonal max contest report will migrate into this thread next, as there is a new high for ATL to adjust scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Seasonal Max Contest -- August Updates This report shows the highest temperatures so far this year at each of the nine locations, many of which have edged up closer to normal values in July ... any new maximum values will be reported here and the scores adjusted. ATL _ 97 on 4th ... IAH _ 106 on 11th ... PHX _ 117 on 14th ... DEN _ 98 on 15th Numbers in red -- errors that can only increase Numbers in blue -- errors that can decrease Totals in green -- your accumulated error points to date FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Max so far ______________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 ____ 92 __ 97 __106 ____ 98 __ 117 __ 95 _____ Total (rank) Roger Smith ___________ 105 7_104 8_10210__10715_100 3_105 1 __101 3_121 4_100 5 ____ 56 (20) blazess556 _____________103 5_101 5_ 98 6 __10311_104 7_104 2___103 5_117 0_ 97 2 ____ 43 (19) dmillz25 _______________103 5_101 5_ 97 5 __100 8_101 4_102 4 ___101 3_117 0_ 95 0 ____ 34 (t15) Stebo ________________ 102 4_100 4_ 97 5 __10210_102 5_103 3 ___104 6_116 1_ 96 1 ____ 39 (18) Rjay __________________102 4 _ 98 2_ 98 6 __101 9_101 4_103 3 ___101 3_117 0_ 94 1 ____ 32 (14) SD ___________________ 101 3_100 4_ 96 4 __ 94 2_103 6_106 0 ___ 99 1 _114 3_ 95 0 ____ 23 (4) Mallow ________________ 101 3_ 99 3_ 96 4 __10311_102 5_103 3___100 2_118 1_ 97 2 ____ 34 (t15) DonSutherland.1 _________101 3_ 97 1_ 97 5 ___98 6_100 3_102 4 ___104 6_116 1_ 90 5 ____ 34 (t15) Tenman Johnson ________ 100 2_ 97 1_ 94 2 ___ 99 7_102 5_104 2 ___ 98 0_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 24 (t5) Isotherm _______________100 2_ 96 0_ 96 4 ___ 98 6_100 3_103 3 ___105 7_118 1_ 94 1 ____ 27(t10) Consensus _____________ 100 2_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_100 3_104 2 ___101 3_116 1_ 94 1 ____ 26 (t9) wxdude64 ______________ 99 1_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_ 98 1_104 2 ___104 6_115 2_ 95 0 ____ 26 (9) MidloSnow Maker _________99 1_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 98 6_ 98 1_102 4 ___101 3_114 3_ 91 4 ____ 29 (12) ksammut _______________ 99 1_ 97 1_ 95 3 ___ 98 6_101 4_103 3 ___ 98 0_115 2_ 97 2 ____ 22 (t2) Damage in Tolland ________98 0_ 98 2_ 96 4 ___ 98 6_ 99 2_103 3 ___102 4_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 24 (t5) Maxim _________________ 98 0_ 97 1_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_100 3_102 4___103 5_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 30 (13) Tom ___________________98 0_ 97 1_ 94 2 ___ 98 6_101 4_103 3 ____97 1_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 20 (1) Absolute Humidity ________98 0_ 94 2_ 92 0 ___101 9_100 3_104 2___100 2_118 1_ 92 3 ____ 22 (t2) BKviking ________________97 1_ 95 1_ 95 3 ___ 99 7_ 98 1_101 5____102 4_115 2_ 92 3 ____ 27 (t10) wxallannj _______________ 97 1_ 95 1_ 95 3 ___ 98 6_ 99 2_101 5____100 2_113 4_ 94 1 ____ 25 (8) RodneyS ________________96 2_ 96 0_ 94 2 ___ 95 3_ 98 1_100 6____104 6_117 0_ 91 4 ____ 24 (t5) _____________________________________________________________________ Mallow added a prediction of 104 for PDX and so far the max there is 103 (July 30). I was in Oregon on my recent holiday and they were reporting that Portland has broken its record for 90 degree days set in 2009, with a month of possible opportunities yet to come. It was 97 there on Wednesday 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Continuing the anomaly updates, next one around mid-month (on holiday and not checking every day but should find a chance to update once a week anyway) ... ______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA _____ (5d) _____ +4.5 __ +4.6 __ +4.2 ____ +0.6 __ +3.3 __ +1.4 ____ +3.0e__ +3.4 __ +4.1 ____ (10d) _____ +2.1 __ +2.3 __ +0.6 ____ +0.9 __ +2.6 __ +2.8 ____ +1.9 __ +2.2 __ +3.7 ____ (p17d) ____ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.0 ____ +1.8 __ +1.8 __ +2.4 ____ +2.0 __ +2.5 __ +4.0 ____ (p27d) ____ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.0 ____ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +2.0 ____ +2.5 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 On the road, just the anomalies thru 16 days..._____ 1.4, 2.6, 1.3 ....1.8, 1.9, 2.7 ... 3.0,, 3.2, 3.2And new max for PHX 117 and DEN 98 ... Will update (done) max scores when back on my familiar screen .... Next update of anomalies 22nd, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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