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Dates of convective events that didn't pan out


weatherwiz

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Much research seems to go into major severe weather events which occurred, however, I never seem to really mind much out there on events that didn't pan out.  While we learn a substantial amount from reviewing past events we produce, I feel like we can learn an even tremendous amount by also fully studying and perhaps writing reviews of events which had positives but just didn't materialize.  

 

Unfortunately when it comes to remember dates I am pretty bad at it.  A friend of mine who is much better and knows like any date is going to help come up with a list of dates.  What I'm hoping from this is anyone who can remember any dates or something please list.  

 

I'm thinking of going back to around 1990 to start but over time perhaps go back further.  One of the key aspects I really want to focus on is forcing and shear.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

Might be off on the date (or willfully banished it from my mind), but June 6, 2010 rings a bell as a big bust. I seem to recall the SPC going big with like a 10% hatched tornado threat. There was great helicity, ridiculous shear and solid instability, but lapse rates proved to be ghastly, like 5.5 degrees/km or something, and any updrafts that popped were too weak and got ripped to shreds by the wind in the midlevels. That was a brutal day. I was so excited when I woke up; people were saying it was a one in 25 or 50 year setup, pulling out the Worcester '53 analog, talking about ACCAS sightings, DIT was lashing himself to his deck etc. The sun came out mid-morning and it was game on. Then the afternoon wore on into evening and there were just a few little 30db blips on the radar that vanished like a fart in the wind. And that was it. I became good friends with Mr. Walker's amber restorative that day. Fortunately, 51 weeks later my faith was rekindled.

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Might be off on the date (or willfully banished it from my mind), but June 6, 2010 rings a bell as a big bust. I seem to recall the SPC going big with like a 10% hatched tornado threat. There was great helicity, ridiculous shear and solid instability, but lapse rates proved to be ghastly, like 5.5 degrees/km or something, and any updrafts that popped were too weak and got ripped to shreds by the wind in the midlevels. That was a brutal day. I was so excited when I woke up; people were saying it was a one in 25 or 50 year setup, pulling out the Worcester '53 analog, talking about ACCAS sightings, DIT was lashing himself to his deck etc. The sun came out mid-morning and it was game on. Then the afternoon wore on into evening and there were just a few little 30db blips on the radar that vanished like a fart in the wind. And that was it. I became good friends with Mr. Walker's amber restorative that day. Fortunately, 51 weeks later my faith was rekindled.

Good catch. Although there were some impressive storms (golf ball sized hail in Hartford, CT), no tornadoes were reported in the area. A few swaths of wind damage were reported, however.

day1probotlk_20100606_1630_torn_prt.gif

100606_rpts.gif

The 10:25 a.m. mesoscale discussion was also rather bullish in wording:

"TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS..."

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Good catch. Although there were some impressive storms (golf ball sized hail in Hartford, CT), no tornadoes were reported in the area. A few swaths of wind damage were reported, however.

 

The 10:25 a.m. mesoscale discussion was also rather bullish in wording:

"TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS..."

That's the one. I guess my memory was selective. I forgot there were a few solid cells. The thing that stuck out was the lack of tornadoes given the guidance.

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Good catch. Although there were some impressive storms (golf ball sized hail in Hartford, CT), no tornadoes were reported in the area. A few swaths of wind damage were reported, however.

day1probotlk_20100606_1630_torn_prt.gif

100606_rpts.gif

The 10:25 a.m. mesoscale discussion was also rather bullish in wording:

"TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS..."

 

Judging by that report map, there were a couple discrete supercells.

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Good catch. Although there were some impressive storms (golf ball sized hail in Hartford, CT), no tornadoes were reported in the area. A few swaths of wind damage were reported, however.

day1probotlk_20100606_1630_torn_prt.gif

100606_rpts.gif

The 10:25 a.m. mesoscale discussion was also rather bullish in wording:

"TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS..."

 

What a cluster that was.

 

I'd be curious to see how the new and improved convection allowing modeling would have handled this event. I'm willing to bet there would have been a bunch of red flags from the high res models.

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