Powerball Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A very narrow window early this afternoon for storms to pop up here. The convective temperature per the 12z DTX sounding is 85*F, assuming a dewpoint of 69*F. WE're in that ball park now. MLCAPE values have risen to 2000 J/KG with LIs of -7. Had full sunshine most of the morning, but a low CU field has rapidly filled in in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 MD out for northern OH. Graphic says watch likely by 20z, the actual text says watch possible... 40%, and their discussion says watch likely by 21z. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0111 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWESTPA AND FAR WESTERN NYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 191811Z - 192015ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A STRONG WIND AND HAILTHREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERNNY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSSNORTHWEST IND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV OVER WEST-CENTRALIND AND IN A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPERSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASSACROSS NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY IS MODERATELY TOSTRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITHTIME AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/LAKEBREEZE INTERACTIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTONTARIO ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MAYEVENTUALLY CROSS LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAINSTORM MODE AND STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BEPOSSIBLE...LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...LAT...LON 41408357 41728249 42118080 42497966 42987807 4279777242187754 41727766 41197834 40897910 40278113 3999834440258417 40968408 41408357 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 18z DTX sounding... 18z BUF sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A really nice thunderstorm with strong winds and small hail just rolled through. The line is barrelling southeast and strengthening and should be crossing Lake Erie in an hour and a half or so. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 18z DTX sounding... 18z BUF sounding... The DTX sounding shows some nice potential for severe storms with that 45 kt wind vector under 500mb. It seems as though there will be nothing to show for it. Minor blip on radar near Wyandotte (Michsnowfreak) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Don't know how CLE issued a severe warning on the cell south of Tiffin Ohio. Garden variety cell with no reports was just a waste of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Just waiting for the lake to destroy those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 There was a tornado warning just SE of Cincinnati about an hour ago... the supercell is still going and has maintained broad rotation but no tornado warning at the moment. I managed to take some pictures of the tornadic supercell when it was looking pretty serious. I was about 30 miles northwest of the cell, looking southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Don't know how CLE issued a severe warning on the cell south of Tiffin Ohio. Garden variety cell with no reports was just a waste of timeI saw a wind damage report from Hancock Co. DCAPE was strong and those cells they warned had some decent cores for a while so the warning seemed warranted albeit marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 The DTX sounding shows some nice potential for severe storms with that 45 kt wind vector under 500mb. It seems as though there will be nothing to show for it. Minor blip on radar near Wyandotte (Michsnowfreak) For the Detroit area, this just hasn't been our season for severe weather action. There have been several opportunies in which the instability was there and the dynamics were there, but they can't seem to happen in conjunction at an ideal time of day. We're past the prime climatological time for severe weather (although in the past couple of seasons, August has been fairly active), so the chances of getting in on anything from here on out are steadily diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 For the Detroit area, this just hasn't been our season for severe weather action. There have been several opportunies in which the instability was there and the dynamics were there, but they can't seem to happen in conjunction at an ideal time of day. We're past the prime climatological time for severe weather (although in the past couple of seasons, August has been fairly active), so the chances of getting in on anything from here on out are steadily diminishing. I'm rather surprised that things didn't go here in NE Ohio today...we had just is much instability but just slightly weak dynamics and shear to go along with better frontal timing but it just didn't work. Maybe the MCS across southern Ohio helped limit things along the front up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Models did a pretty terrible job with today's setup. They had consistently shown much better instability further north, but have since squashed it well to the south. Looks like a non-event for IA and the northern 2/3rds of IL now. Looks like a snoozer of a pattern the next several days compared to what we've been spoiled with lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I just took this picture... it's looking west. Storms are popping just south of Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Tor warned storm in the PAH CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Two EF-0's confirmed by LOT for Saturday... 0219 PM TORNADO 2 NNE HARVARD 42.45N 88.60W 07/18/2015 MCHENRY IL NWS STORM SURVEY SATURDAY 7/18/2015 BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO. PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. PATH LENGTH 0.1 MILES. MAXIMUM WINDS 70 MPH. SPOTTER REPORTS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION AND RADAR DATA USED TO DETERMINE DETAILS. 0238 PM TORNADO 3 WSW HEBRON 42.46N 88.48W 07/18/2015 MCHENRY IL NWS STORM SURVEY SATURDAY 7/18/2015 BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO. PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. PATH LENGTH 0.1 MILES. MAXIMUM WINDS 70 MPH. SPOTTER REPORTS AND RADAR DATA USED TO DETERMINE DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Two EF-0's confirmed by LOT for Saturday...We were close to getting on the Hebron one but I'd say the marginal time on ground, rating and size are reflective of how much of a sloppy mess things were congealing into. Visibility was junk too.Still interesting that they were able to get out there and actually find the paths of these two weaklings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 This has to be one the busiest years tornado-wise in the LOT CWA in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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