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Severe weather potential July 18-20


RyanDe680

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Watch issued:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH 438 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-190400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH
STARKE STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$


MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-073-075-077-
081-107-117-121-123-127-139-149-159-190400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GRATIOT
HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT MECOSTA MONTCALM
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$


OHC039-125-161-171-190400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/

OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEFIANCE PAULDING VAN WERT
WILLIAMS
$

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Been cloudy here for about an hour now. Parked at 85/73°.

Looks like once that MCS should make it through most areas south of Grand Rapids to Lansing line. I'd expect for the northern end to weaken a bit more and the whole complex to start shifting more SE.

Still intrigued over here. Lots of left over boundaries from earlier.

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Well, will those of us here in central IN have to wait until tomorrow or will there be a MCS form on the IA/MO border to get us overnight?

 

Seems to be a decent cap, not much vertical motion to the cu field around here until now.  Seems the line in N In. may be starting to build SE so we may still get some action this evening, at least in N central In.  Still a lot of OFB's around so there's still time. Should be a decent light show as the sun sets anyway.

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Neither is the SPC....

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 436...438...

VALID 182243Z - 190015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 436...438...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM NRN IL
THROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. THE BEST THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM NCNTRL THROUGH NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWER
MI.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NERN IND NWWD INTO NWRN IND WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN IND THROUGH NRN IL. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THESE BOUNDARIES WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. IT APPEARS THE BEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE FROM NRN IND TO SWRN
LOWER MI WHERE EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED
/150-200 M2/S2/ JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DESPITE A PROPENSITY FOR THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY FROM SWRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND.

SOME SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NRN IL BUT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL. A FEW ENHANCED CUMULUS PERSIST ALONG THIS PORTION OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND THIS AREA
IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.


..DIAL.. 07/18/2015


ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

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Here is a view of the shelf cloud just south of Coldwater

 

Impressive...somewhat similar to what I experienced here from storms earlier this past week.  Wondering what tomorrow will bring.  The atmosphere always surprises, just like today the storms formed farther east than originally anticipated.

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Guess they didn't watch the weather in Waterford Wisc you would expect a bit more weather savvy from hot air balloonist...

 

So stupid that they didn't put those balloons away. I would think there was enough warning.

Came home to small tree branches on the ground and 1.37" of rain in the gauge.

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Wait was there a suburban attached to that balloon?

 

Someone should have put the kabosh on that

 

Sure was! You can see it crashing into tents at the very end. Must have been in neutral. They should have pulled the plug on this event when the convection started firing in southwest WI. I wasn't all that far from this town earlier today. Noticed some minor tree damage about 10 miles east of the town.

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Might want to add Monday to this thread title.  Nothing too special, but some decent severe potential along the fairly potent cold front from WI down into IA, and maybe IL as well.  

 

Looking like some pretty substantial instability builds ahead of the front by later in the afternoon.  Unlike today it looks like surface convergence will be pretty good.  The wind fields in the lower 3km are pretty terrible, but the mid and especially upper levels are pretty decent.  Nice streak of 70-90kts at H3 over the instability axis.  Could see a nice squall line, or linear MCS blow up if we don't see the conditional threat COC blocked like we've seen at times this season.

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Sure was! You can see it crashing into tents at the very end. Must have been in neutral. They should have pulled the plug on this event when the convection started firing in southwest WI. I wasn't all that far from this town earlier today. Noticed some minor tree damage about 10 miles east of the town.

 

They were trying to deflate when that was taken.  At least they didn't launch.  I couldn't imagine being in one of those riding a gust front!  Surfs up midwestern style ? lol

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They were trying to deflate when that was taken.  At least they didn't launch.  I couldn't imagine being in one of those riding a gust front!  Surfs up midwestern style ? lol

 

Ok, well they ran out of time for deflating. Couldn't imagine that either! Some type of wild roller coaster ride.

 

Wondering if tomorrow will be a repeat of storms - even though the chance is only 20% right now.

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