A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 some decent gusts but nothing wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 is the southern end of the CU field back into NW IL/IA unzips things will get fun otherwise this was a bunch of zzzzzzzzzs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 is the southern end of the CU field back into NW IL/IA unzips things will get fun otherwise this was a bunch of zzzzzzzzzsAgreed. That was boring. Just getting really loud thunder here and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 great convergence with this nascent MCS, bubbling overhead and should pose a real deal wind threat on the other side of the lake cell in SE McHenry looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Watch issued: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 438NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK500 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015TORNADO WATCH 438 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THEFOLLOWING LOCATIONSINC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-190400-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/IN. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORDCASS DE KALB ELKHARTFULTON GRANT HUNTINGTONJAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGELA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMINOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPHSTARKE STEUBEN WABASHWELLS WHITE WHITLEY$MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-073-075-077-081-107-117-121-123-127-139-149-159-190400-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/MI. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALLEGAN BARRY BERRIENBRANCH CALHOUN CASSCLINTON EATON GRATIOTHILLSDALE INGHAM IONIAISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOOKENT MECOSTA MONTCALMMUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANAOTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN$OHC039-125-161-171-190400-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0438.150718T2100Z-150719T0400Z/OH. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED AREDEFIANCE PAULDING VAN WERTWILLIAMS$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Yeah the watch is creeping to and end eastward. Snoozefest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Been cloudy here for about an hour now. Parked at 85/73°. Looks like once that MCS should make it through most areas south of Grand Rapids to Lansing line. I'd expect for the northern end to weaken a bit more and the whole complex to start shifting more SE. Still intrigued over here. Lots of left over boundaries from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Round two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well, will those of us here in central IN have to wait until tomorrow or will there be a MCS form on the IA/MO border to get us overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Man the lake demolished that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well, will those of us here in central IN have to wait until tomorrow or will there be a MCS form on the IA/MO border to get us overnight? Seems to be a decent cap, not much vertical motion to the cu field around here until now. Seems the line in N In. may be starting to build SE so we may still get some action this evening, at least in N central In. Still a lot of OFB's around so there's still time. Should be a decent light show as the sun sets anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Short range models not enthused about redevelopment farther west in IA/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Neither is the SPC.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0543 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MICONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 436...438...VALID 182243Z - 190015ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 436...438...CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM NRN ILTHROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. THE BEST THREAT FOR A FEWTORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM NCNTRL THROUGH NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWERMI.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYEXTENDS FROM NERN IND NWWD INTO NWRN IND WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHEROUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN IND THROUGH NRN IL. THEATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH OFTHESE BOUNDARIES WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. IT APPEARS THE BESTTORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE FROM NRN IND TO SWRNLOWER MI WHERE EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED/150-200 M2/S2/ JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.DESPITE A PROPENSITY FOR THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...EMBEDDEDSUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE AS THESTORMS INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY FROM SWRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND.SOME SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NRN IL BUT IS MORECONDITIONAL. A FEW ENHANCED CUMULUS PERSIST ALONG THIS PORTION OFTHE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND THIS AREAIS LIKELY EXPERIENCING SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEADSHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNALCOOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...DIAL.. 07/18/2015ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Storms fizzling fast over here... Temps have dropped off to 75° and it's not even raining yet. It was fun while it last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Short range models not enthused about redevelopment farther west in IA/IL. Been that way all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Gust front went through earlier, down to 80/71 which is a hell of a lot better than 90/81 which I measured earlier. Not expecting anything else this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 The day looked promising. If development was further west, would have made for an interesting afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Here is a view of the shelf cloud just south of Coldwater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Here is a view of the shelf cloud just south of Coldwater Impressive...somewhat similar to what I experienced here from storms earlier this past week. Wondering what tomorrow will bring. The atmosphere always surprises, just like today the storms formed farther east than originally anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Guess they didn't watch the weather in Waterford Wisc you would expect a bit more weather savvy from hot air balloonist... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7CvULBOpwk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Mom lost power a few hours ago. Tree got knocked down, probably due to outflow winds which couldn't have been that intense. Maybe chalk it up to the very wet soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Guess they didn't watch the weather in Waterford Wisc you would expect a bit more weather savvy from hot air balloonist... So stupid that they didn't put those balloons away. I would think there was enough warning. Came home to small tree branches on the ground and 1.37" of rain in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A couple of pics of a shelf cloud with a storm that rolled through the northern part of the county this evening. Nothing severe, but torrential rains behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 ...and one more: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 So stupid that they didn't put those balloons away. I would think there was enough warning. Came home to small tree branches on the ground and 1.37" of rain in the gauge. Wait was there a suburban attached to that balloon? Someone should have put the kabosh on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Awesome pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Wait was there a suburban attached to that balloon? Someone should have put the kabosh on that Sure was! You can see it crashing into tents at the very end. Must have been in neutral. They should have pulled the plug on this event when the convection started firing in southwest WI. I wasn't all that far from this town earlier today. Noticed some minor tree damage about 10 miles east of the town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Might want to add Monday to this thread title. Nothing too special, but some decent severe potential along the fairly potent cold front from WI down into IA, and maybe IL as well. Looking like some pretty substantial instability builds ahead of the front by later in the afternoon. Unlike today it looks like surface convergence will be pretty good. The wind fields in the lower 3km are pretty terrible, but the mid and especially upper levels are pretty decent. Nice streak of 70-90kts at H3 over the instability axis. Could see a nice squall line, or linear MCS blow up if we don't see the conditional threat COC blocked like we've seen at times this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Sure was! You can see it crashing into tents at the very end. Must have been in neutral. They should have pulled the plug on this event when the convection started firing in southwest WI. I wasn't all that far from this town earlier today. Noticed some minor tree damage about 10 miles east of the town. They were trying to deflate when that was taken. At least they didn't launch. I couldn't imagine being in one of those riding a gust front! Surfs up midwestern style ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 They were trying to deflate when that was taken. At least they didn't launch. I couldn't imagine being in one of those riding a gust front! Surfs up midwestern style ? lol Ok, well they ran out of time for deflating. Couldn't imagine that either! Some type of wild roller coaster ride. Wondering if tomorrow will be a repeat of storms - even though the chance is only 20% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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