A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Yeah, it could stall in the metro area which could mean big trouble later this evening. it's definitely not leaving the metro area, won't even make it north of I90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Good chance my sub 90F streak is alive. It's cloudy and 72F. Dude, 89.7 is 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Good chance my sub 90F streak is alive. It's cloudy and 72F. Dude, 89.7 is 90. https://learnzillion.com/lessons/3430-round-decimals-to-the-nearest-whole-number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The whole idea of the "streak" isn't anything more than personal interest. Howell isn't a climate site anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 MCD 1464... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181731Z - 181930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA/ OVERSPREADS THE AREA. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH OF A DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED. EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE. THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR LAKE BREEZE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE LOCALLY AUGMENTED. NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OWING TO THE WORKED-OVER AIRMASS. HERE...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD BASES...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWARD...OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...DELAYING POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH. ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I'm really loving today's setup in N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Lake enhanced boundary completely stalled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 My temp has risen here despite being just behind the lake/outflow boundary that went through. Perhaps a sign that it's starting to lose some punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 OFB is pretty much stationary attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 IWX is recieving multiple reports of funnel clouds along a cluster of storms and their outflow in NE IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 GEtting towering CU and fat raindrops from the outflow. Had a decent gust of wind earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 GEtting towering CU and fat raindrops from the outflow. Had a decent gust of wind earlier.I'd say we gusted to 45 here, there are a few branches down along Stephens near Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Lake enhanced OFB is moving north (especially the northern extent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 FWIW we might want to consider adding Monday (July 20) to this thread--this morning's D3 outlook had a boomerang-shaped slight risk area which includes SE MN, NW and western IA, eastern NE, northeastern Kansas, most of MO, and the southern half of IL.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html SPC AC 180739 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z [ . . . ] ...SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA/ERN KS AND MO TO LOWER OH VALLEY... STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...THAN WITH POLEWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN MN WHERE SOME MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB TO SRN MN. MODERATELY STRONG WNWLY 500-MB WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. TSTMS AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING FRONT INTO SRN MN TO ERN NEB MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING STORMS/CLOUDINESS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN NERN KS AND NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL. AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY....WHILE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER AREA COULD HAVE A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING TO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 07/18/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Gary jumped from 77 to 88 (dewpoint went from 68 to 77) and winds shifted to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Gary jumped from 77 to 88 (dewpoint went from 68 to 77) and winds shifted to the southeast. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 MCD 1464... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181731Z - 181930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA/ OVERSPREADS THE AREA. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH OF A DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED. EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE. THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR LAKE BREEZE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE LOCALLY AUGMENTED. NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OWING TO THE WORKED-OVER AIRMASS. HERE...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD BASES...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWARD...OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...DELAYING POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH. ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015 MCD 1463 was issued 5 minutes before the above quoted #1464--watch also possible for parts of N IN, NW OH, and extreme SE Lower MI: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1463.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LOWER MI/NRN AND ERN INDIANA/PARTS OF WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181726Z - 181930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NERN INDIANA VICINITY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN ONGOING LOWER MI MCS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SEVERE RISK GRADUALLY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE IN/WRN OH VICINITY ATTM...S AND SE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI TOWARD/INTO ONTARIO ATTM. PERSISTENT HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PER VIS IMAGERY...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS ALL OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NERN INDIANA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW. CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...WITH SSWLY INFLOW AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS S OF THE CONVECTION FAVORING UPDRAFT FORMATION TO THE SW OF ONGOING STORMS -- AND THUS OVERALL SEWD/SSEWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION. MODERATE BACKGROUND WLYS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION -- WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF YIELDING RISK FOR WIND/HAIL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLY BECOMING NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015 ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 A fairly notable shift on the Day 2 outlook (not unexpected)... SPC AC 181726DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015VALID 191200Z - 201200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO WRN NEWENGLAND......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTOTHE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS......SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHTHIS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCINGLOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE MIDMISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THENERN U.S. AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SPEED MAX THAT WILL TRANSLATE THROUGHTHE BASE OF TROUGH AXIS INTO SERN ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING. THISFEATURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS UPSTATE NY DURING THE LATTER HALF OFTHE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THISFEATURE AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS THE NERNU.S. THAN PERHAPS EARLIER DAY2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS. SUBSTANTIALDESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NY...SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEYAHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILYDEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SURGING WIND SHIFT BY MID DAY AS DIABATICHEATING IS MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE NOT STRONGLYSHEARED...ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTSTHAT COULD OBTAIN CHARACTERISTICS FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTSAND ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. GIVEN THESTRENGTHENING/DEEPENING WLY FLOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ITSEEMS WARRANTED TO EXPAND SEVERE PROBS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ASAFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES OVER NY SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST OFTHE HUDSON VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS.HAVE EXPANDED BOTH THE CATEGORY1 AND CATEGORY2 THREATS ACROSS THISREGION AND HIGHER PROBS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS TO REFLECTGREATER STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZED AIR MASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Looks like we got ourselves a ternader watch now for northern IL/southern WI/far eastern IA/far northwest IN. EDIT: Cu field overhead has really matured over the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Looks like we got ourselves a ternader watch now for northern IL/southern WI/far eastern IA/far northwest IN. NAM did hint at possibly bringing those storms here later this evening, but that's assuming the atmosphere recovers sufficiently. I'll probably keep a passive eye on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The cluster of storms have a special weather statement on them. The downstream airmass is extremely unstable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Will have to watch those storms in WI, I'm heading up to Milwaukee now. Dewpoint way down at 64 deg at UGN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 those storms in WI could get interesting when they encounter the retreating boundary over N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I think we're going to have an elevated tornado threat right in the heart of Chicago metro later. Low/mid level flow is not particularly strong, but there should be plenty of low level turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I think we're going to have an elevated tornado threat right in the heart of Chicago metro later. Low/mid level flow is not particularly strong, but there should be plenty of low level turning. yeah boundary is laying in a prime position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Some new development north of Rockford near border. Could be interesting as it's close to that leftover OFB. Also, a trailing line of TCU from near Dubuque back to Cedar Rapids could blow up at any time. Nice moisture convergence in that area. EDIT: If I were chasing I'd want to be on that new cell near WI/IL border. Already looks pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Some new development north of Rockford near border. Could be interesting as it's close to that leftover OFB. Also, a trailing line of TCU from near Dubuque back to Cedar Rapids could blow up at any time. Nice moisture convergence in that area. EDIT: If I was chasing I'd want to be on that new cell near WI/IL border. Already looks pretty interesting. South of Rockford now too....could get dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 solid potential http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.LOT.N0Q.20150718.1847.048ani.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Yeah really nice tornado environment right now along/south of the lake breeze. Enough shear, plenty of instability and good 0-3km CAPE wirh backed sfc winds leading to good low level directional shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 yeah boundary is laying in a prime position It'll be even better if storm motion turns southeast. Right now it's more easterly which means that storms would cross the boundary fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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