A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Quite a few boundaries across N IL...with a very pronounced one heading south out of wisco from the main MCS Like I said yesterday, I'm optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 MCS came through here about 3am... woke up to pouring rain and a ton of lightning... ended up with just about an inch... Active pattern lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Gorgeous look at the boundary overhead. Rainless, dark and almost looks like a shelf, with contrast to brighter skies looking underneath it to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Gorgeous look at the boundary overhead. Rainless, dark and almost looks like a shelf, with contrast to brighter skies looking underneath it to the north. You look gold later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Cool air just hit. Stall here please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Finished our run and hill climbs. Short term evolution looks good out here. Surface winds calmed for a bit and now lightly out of the southwest again. Full sun breaking out and scattered clouds moving now more from the west rather than north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Outflow overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 There really are so many random boundaries all over the place...hard to keep track. Some will wash out/mix out a bit...but MLCAPEs already rising quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Main OFB looks good but little worried about all the clouds with northeast MO stuff heading this way, but already so much instability it shouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Almost looks like a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Main OFB looks good but little worried about all the clouds with northeast MO stuff heading this way, but already so much instability it shouldn't take much. starting to smell like another I80 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 DTX update....meh... 000FXUS63 KDTX 181339AFDDTXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI939 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015.UPDATE...THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATINGMCS NOW TRACKING INTO WRN LOWER MI. SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THELAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTIVE OF ADIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWINGSOME LOCALIZED REINTENSIFICATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THEMCS. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS UNDER AWEAK CAPPING INVERSION. RAPID LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOONDESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SFCDEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND TEMPS LIKELY ACHIEVING LOW-MID 80SBY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT SFC BASED CAPECOULD REACH/EXCEED 2K J/KG. SO IT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOMECONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THEONGOING DECAYING MCS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN FACT IF THISSYSTEM REINTENSIFIES AS IT ENCOUNTERS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATIONFARTHER EAST. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDIVECTORS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE SOUTHEASTTRACK...THUS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HI RES SUITE ALL HAVE ANEXTREMELY POOR HANDLING OF THIS MCS...WHICH LEADS TO A RELATIVELYLOW CONFIDENCE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED MCV NOWROTATING ACROSS THE NRN WI/WRN UP BORDER WILL TRACK EAST DURINGTHE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OFMID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER LOWER MI THAT MOST MODELSOLUTIONS DEPICT /AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY/.GIVEN THIS AND UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUEDTO INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A POCKETOF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BOOSTDOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUGGESTS A FORMIDABLE RISK FOR STRONG WINDSAND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THEPOTENTIAL TO CUT INTO AFTERNOON TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...THE HEATADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CONSIDERING THERE IS STILLUNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE INTO SE MI.AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT SOME OFTHE HEAT HEADLINES NEED TO BE DROPPED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 That line wasn't very spectacular when it went through here in Allegan county. A lot of rain, a few claps of thunder and got pretty windy for a couple minutes. It's clearing out here pretty fast and we've had brightening sun for at least a half an hour now. That said, I'm somewhat surprised that the storm stayed intact long enough to reach here. GRR has actually upped the high temp from 91° before the storm hit to 95° with 105° heat index when I just refreshed. The hiss I hear must be the steam beginning rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 That line wasn't very spectacular when it went through here in Allegan county. A lot of rain, a few claps of thunder and got pretty windy for a couple minutes. It's clearing out here pretty fast and we've had brightening sun for at least a half an hour now. That said, I'm somewhat surprised that the storm stayed intact long enough to reach here. GRR has actually upped the high temp from 91° before the storm hit to 95° with 105° heat index when I just refreshed. The hiss I hear must be the steam beginning rise. The part of the line poised to hit here has completely diminished (thus no lightning wih it). But of course it probably won't weaken fast enough to prevent us from seeing rain / cloud debris... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The part of the line poised to hit here has completely diminished (thus no lightning wih it). But of course it probably won't weaken fast enough to prevent us from seeing rain / cloud debris... Back home near Flint, it looks like it was pretty much just rain when it got there. Looking at the radar now, that top section is disintegrating pretty well so it might be a crapshoot at this time as to whether it will survive to the Detroit area. I'd definitely go with debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 time sensitive but looks like the outflow pops and radiates out from MBY http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 1630z outlook seems to be running late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The part of the line poised to hit here has completely diminished (thus no lightning wih it). But of course it probably won't weaken fast enough to prevent us from seeing rain / cloud debris... 56mph wind gust at Flint. It seems unlikely that a lot of this squall line will be severe and/or interesting. IWX radar is detecting some higher rainfall rates in north central Indiana. That's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Significant changes on the 1630z outlook. Enhanced risk added; some areas went from marginal to enhanced in one outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Decent sized ENH risk on the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 outflow laying NW to SE across the heart of the w and s metro area, northern extent appears to be slowing/stalling near thundersnow should lift north some but i won't be surprised if it remains to my south definitely see an enhanced wind threat along and south of the boundary across N. IL EDIT: any sw flow south of the boundary over NE IL remains diffuse and light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I got a brief gust of about 40mph at Ann Arbor. I haven't personally seen too many true clouds for a while, so that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 outflow laying NW to SE across the heart of the w and s metro area, northern extent appears to be slowing/stalling near thundersnow should lift north some but i won't be surprised if it remains to my south definitely see an enhanced wind threat along and south of the boundary across N. IL EDIT: any sw flow south of the boundary over NE IL remains diffuse and light Daytime heating, lack of ongoing convection, etc argue that it will come north. The light gradient that you mentioned though could mean that it has trouble in areas closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Tornado warned storm in Extreme NE IA and SW Wisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA... CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 1230 PM CDT * AT 1202 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CASSVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUTTENBERG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... LANCASTER AROUND 1225 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BEETOWN...POTOSI...TENNYSON...NORTH BUENA VISTA AND MILLVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Lake boundary just went over. It's like right on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 90/80 IKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Daytime heating, lack of ongoing convection, etc argue that it will come north. The light gradient that you mentioned though could mean that it has trouble in areas closer to the lake. Yeah, it could stall in the metro area which could mean big trouble later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Good chance my sub 90F streak is alive. It's cloudy and 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Visually....mid level flow looks out of the south...low level flow looks out of the southwest...and I can see the boundary trying to make headway to my northeast moving SW....but it is putting on the breaks big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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