RyanDe680 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Slight risk popped up and hatched tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 A nice squally MCS looking line been advertised along/ahead of the cold front for quite a few days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 just wonder how much if any tonights MCS hampers potential over S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 just wonder how much if any tonights MCS hampers potential over S. WI As has been the case so far this summer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 NAM plows a bow into GEOS late saturday...then develops another line along the front Sunday evening into central and parts of northern IL back through mizzu and parts of iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 A nice squally MCS looking line been advertised along/ahead of the cold front for quite a few days now best potential of the year for us in the far NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 And, not surprisingly, models are now speeding up the frontal passage Sunday. Any faster and severe weather potential will be shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 best potential of the year for us in the far NE Indeed, it's been awhile since there has been a higher impact non cellular event up in far NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 new d2 came southeast with slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 And, not surprisingly, models are now speeding up the frontal passage Sunday. Any faster and severe weather potential will be shot here. Yeah I mentioned 7/15/10, 7/2/11, and 7/19/13 as being possible analogs in the other thread...after the 12z trends, I think I'll add Cutting/It/Close to that list. Edit: Also, the 12z GFS and NAM completely displace the instability axis from the good shear again, which is just as big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 starting to see some cu growth thinking the MN MCS will track into S WI and N IL during the early morning hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Love the midnight MCS events. Things seem to be speeding up a bit, including the front tomorrow afternoon. Tonight might be the best shot at decent storms up this way. Pretty narrow window tomorrow, assuming the overnight stuff clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Shower just blew up over here, actually nice dbz aloft, torrential downpour last 5 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Shower just blew up over here, actually nice dbz aloft, torrential downpour last 5 mins i can see it out my window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 Day 1 put most of LOT back in Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Nice tower blowing up a few miles to my north....looks like there is an old boundary there on composite radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Getting a shower here right now. Some thundery rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 CIPS is predicting a Moderate Risk on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 CIPS is predicting a Moderate Risk on Sunday... Look at that bullseye over me. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 CIPS is predicting a Moderate Risk on Sunday... That's not really how that works. Considering you are using the top 8 events in the analog set, that is bullishly biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Warning now... the storms drifting along the IL/WI border decided to dive south. Big cell headed this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Yeah I mentioned 7/15/10, 7/2/11, and 7/19/13 as being possible analogs in the other thread...after the 12z trends, I think I'll add Cutting/It/Close to that list. Edit: Also, the 12z GFS and NAM completely displace the instability axis from the good shear again, which is just as big of an issue. Another good analog (which wasn't so hot for us in the Detroit area) is 7/10/13. Despite highs getting up to about 88*F and MLCAPE values locally of 3000 J/KG, most of the action got going just to our south and east. A solution similar to this analog is what the current models are hinting at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Bombs blowing up in ND and SD. Birth of the overnight MCS that should pivot right thru the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 So much for the storm. Died on the door step. Just going to be some light rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nice little warm wing taking shape just SW of Minneapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 NCAR has storms popping in Iowa around 22z. The atmosphere is extreme unstable (go figure), ensemble mean has a LI of less than -16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 going to see a repeat of the MSP MCS form last night over NW IL today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Quite a few boundaries across N IL...with a very pronounced one heading south out of wisco from the main MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Neighborhood looks like a war zone from the MCS last night. Took some minor tree damage and the power has been out for the last 7 hrs. Hell of a storm, even the wake low-like winds an hour or two afterwards were fierce. Good luck to everyone downstream today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 I see a boundary to my northwest. Moving ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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