mattie g Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 The line is looking healthy. certainly more healthy than the HRRR has projected. I have no doubt it'll crumble at Stephens City and then reform just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Looks like the best parameters are in Frederick/Washington County and the pand handle of WV. This mid level cloudiness over the I-95 and I-66 corridor is really capping any potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Looks like the best parameters are in Frederick/Washington County and the pand handle of WV. This mid level cloudiness over the I-95 and I-66 corridor is really capping any potential. Parameters look pretty good in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC252 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THEFRONT WILL STALL OUT IN NORTH CAROLINA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INOVER OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN REVERSE AND SLOWLY PUSHBACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...POTENT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THISEVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOWPRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. ALREADY A BROKEN LINE OFTHUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST AND IS MOVING TOWARDS US.CAPE IS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG...SHEAR IN THEVICNITY OF 30 KNOTS WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW- LEVEL HELICITY...AND AFAVORABLE JET STREAK POSITION ALOFT. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLEGETTING STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECASTAREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND ANADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY...GIVEN ROBUST LOW LEVEL HELICITY ANDDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST TIMING FOR STORMPASSAGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE ANHOUR OR TWO. ODDS FAVOR NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING BALTIMORE...HENCETHE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THERE. HOWEVER...SOME RISK EXISTS FURTHERSOUTH...AND IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THE WATCH COULD GET EXTENDEDFURTHER SOUTH OR THAT WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS FAR SOUTH AS DCPROPER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 SB CAPE up to 3000 just west of the district. LIs -3 to -6. Shear looks to be meh until you get up into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 SB CAPE up to 3000 just west of the district. LIs -3 to -6. Shear looks to be meh until you get up into PA. As high risk said above in his post, wait a few more hours for the s/w to approach... shear will increase then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 There could be an F5 on the ground mowing down I-66 and Eskimo would meh the parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 True story. There could be an F5 on the ground mowing down I-66 and Eskimo would meh the parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 There could be an F5 on the ground mowing down I-66 and Eskimo would meh the parameters. Yea no. Ian and ERS are right in that climatology usually isn't on our side here and I noticed our best days for severe weather is when the mid level lapse rates and shear coincide with on another. We saw that back in June when Montgomery, Baltimore and Fairfax got hit really hard with 4" hail and several microbursts. The latest meso from SPC underscores why the tornado watch is justified, but I'm having my doubts for anyone outside of the mountains. Looking at the RAP point forecast soundings...what strikes me is that a layer of warm temperatures exist around 700 mb (seems about +11 *C) and only a narrow ribbon of SB instability in the lee of the mountains. If we have strong insolation we'd see an environment primed for action but that isn't the case. Again, I meh 9.9/10 things so just disregard what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 18z -- 2000 MLCAPE and 3000 SBCAPE in N VA/DC/C MD... LI's -5 to -6... 19z -- -4 to -7 LI's... 1500 to 3000 MLCAPE... 2000-3500 SBCAPE.... sup composite parameter 4-8... sig tor effective and fixed layer are both at 1... 30 kts bulk shear with 30 kts effective shear as well... derecho composite 4 to 6... 30-50 in Craven SigSvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PA/MD/NORTHERN WV TO NORTHERN VA AND DE/NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397... VALID 091909Z - 092045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF PA AND NEARBY NORTHERN WV/MD. TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON /APPROX 20-21Z/ ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ/DE/NORTHEAST MD. DISCUSSION...18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES AN EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY/NORTHWEST PA...WITH PRECEDING 2-3 MB TWO-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NY/NORTH-CENTRAL PA. A WAVY/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN PA INTO NJ. AS OF 19Z/3PM EDT...A NARROW/BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA/FAR WESTERN MD...WHILE FARTHER NORTH...WITH OTHER LOWER-TOPPED SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE INTENSITY-WISE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASING AGITATED/DEEPEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PARTICULARLY ACROSS PA/NJ WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE TRENDS...LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE EASTWARD-MOVING BAND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE/ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHERN WV AND MD/SOUTHERN PA...WITH OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS REMAINING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FARTHER NORTH /AND POSSIBLY EAST AHEAD OF THE LINE/ ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF PA/NJ AND DELMARVA VICINITY. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT RISK...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PA/NJ. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM STATE COLLEGE IS SAMPLING 0-1 KM SRH OF APPROXIMATELY 200 M2/S2...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY /SUCH AS THE THE WILLIAMSPORT VICINITY AS OF 18Z-19Z/. ..GUYER.. 07/09/2015 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 84/75 at home impressive humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Most of the stuff out west is lining out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Bulk shear seems to peak out ahead of the line per models around 5 and isn't too impressive with it. Storms are going thru a low instability environment right now so they could certainly increase in intensity upon leaving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Bulk shear seems to peak out ahead of the line per models around 5 and isn't too impressive with it. Storms are going thru a low instability environment right now so they could certainly increase in intensity upon leaving it. Would agree that they should intensify... MLCAPE and SBCAPE are 2000-3000 just east of the mts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Most of the stuff out west is lining out.That should be the case overall I think. Best shear is not super well collocated to instability ... Better in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 radar looks incredibly meh. hoping that changes. i want a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 radar looks incredibly meh. hoping that changes. i want a good storm. Did you see Ian's post? They should intensify as they leave the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Just want a good shelf moving through before its dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Wedge wanters vs debs Who will win? Very overcast imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Just want a good shelf moving through before its dark. My favorite part of an approaching storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I mean Ian is right - they really haven't gotten to the juicy instability yet. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 To be fair I'm still a Deb but at least see what they do hitting CAPE. Right now pretty lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Mountains sure do look rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What time can I expect My Tornado today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What time can I expect My Tornado today? zero dark thirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 blue box to the east of the red box. that was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Northern MD wins again? Is actually pretty nice out didn't expect a Tor Watch. Oh well let's see what goes down in Bel Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Who said Northern Frederick Co.? You were right on. That part of the line to my north just got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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