yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 4500 CAPE :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 12z NAM radar shows nasty squall line coming through 21z to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 HRRR is all kinds of meh. Like....what's the slght/enh risk for unless you're in the Lehigh valley or Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 HRRR is all kinds of meh. Like....what's the slght/enh risk for unless you're in the Lehigh valley or Jersey. 11z was fairly impressive. It's still a bit out of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Looks good for northern Frederick County. I'm in. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis has ~1000 MLCAPE DC south with small area of 1500 in N VA... LI's -3 to -5... 1500-2000 SBCAPE also DC and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WV/SOUTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN PA/FAR WESTERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091527Z - 091730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WV/FAR SOUTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AS EARLY AS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A WATCH ISSUANCE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO PA/MD LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLE A SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD OVER THE OH VALLEY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AS MUCH AS 40-50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-5 KM AGL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING VORT MAX/MCV. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE AT 15Z WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY. WITHIN THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR...ONE RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED UPDRAFT/THUNDERSTORM HAS ALREADY EXHIBITED GRADUAL SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OH AS OF 15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BILLOWS /IMPLICATIONS OF STABILITY/ STILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS STORM...THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WV/SOUTHEAST OH INTO NEARBY SOUTHWEST PA/WESTERN MD CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THUS...INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO WV AND NEARBY PA/MD. A COLLOCATED BELT OF STRENGTHENING WINDS AND WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADO RISK. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis has ~1000 MLCAPE DC south with small area of 1500 in N VA... LI's -3 to -5... 1500-2000 SBCAPE also DC and south 16z has around 1500 MLCAPE in DC with small 2000 in northern VA... LI's -3 to -5... 2000-2500 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I'd be tempted to give it a meh but then people up north would be like "this was the best storm in 800.57 years!" and then we'd have to answer why we meh a day with storms and how snow is better. So... woo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Tho we've got good instability so the general lack of shear around here can be counteracted if it cold pools. Boomer show is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I'd be tempted to give it a meh but then people up north would be like "this was the best storm in 800.57 years!" and then we'd have to answer why we meh a day with storms and how snow is better. So... woo storms. #jackpotville will win today, i can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 1630 SPC disco ..MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED BY 12Z RAOBS WILL BE OFFSET BY POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER S-CNTRL OH AS OF LATE MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OH/NRN WV/WRN PA. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EWD THROUGH PA/NRN WV/NRN MD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH INTO NRN VA AND EVENTUALLY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. CURRENT WSR-88D VAD DATA FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING INDICATE SEASONABLY STRONG LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY IN TANDEM WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ/DE...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 #jackpotville will win today, i can feel it It'll end up south of Baltimore. You watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I'd be tempted to give it a meh but then people up north would be like "this was the best storm in 800.57 years!" and then we'd have to answer why we meh a day with storms and how snow is better. So... woo storms. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 ENH risk was nudged south a lil bit on the 1630 OTLK 1300 -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1436459828166 1600 -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1436459826926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I'd be tempted to give it a meh but then people up north would be like "this was the best storm in 800.57 years!" and then we'd have to answer why we meh a day with storms and how snow is better. So... woo storms. ENH touches my county. It's tickling me lol. I'd think Katie is probably in a decent spot for today. Maybe more so up near my girlfriend in Carlisle. Maybe I should have gone to visit today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1159 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND FAR NORTH VACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 091659Z - 091900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INCREASINGDAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOONPARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV ANDADJACENT FAR NORTHERN VA.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKEERIE VICINITY TOWARD NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE APRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARDACROSS PA/NJ. UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV/FARSOUTHWEST PA AT 17Z SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND POTENTIALLY GROWUPSCALE OVER TIME...WHILE ADDITIONAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SHOULDALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF/PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY.INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PACOINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERYAMID AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED WARM SECTOR.ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A COMBINATION OFSEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE LINE/BOWSWILL BE AIDED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG STRENGTHENING BELT OFLOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAMUPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESTRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL...PARTICULARLYIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS PA /ANDEVENTUALLY NJ/...GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...LAT...LON 41567536 40547523 38807635 39357922 40388015 4179769741567536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Woo tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Tornado warning already from PBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Watch issued. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFNORTHERN MARYLAND INCLUDING THE PANHANDLESOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIAFAR NORTHERN VIRGINIANORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLECOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL900 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLESUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWINGLINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OFTORNADOES.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTEMILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF LATROBEPENNSYLVANIA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HARRISBURGPENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 oh hey there tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Oh...guess I'm not in the watch. SPC jerks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Oh...guess I'm not in the watch. SPC jerks. honestly -- not even sure why a watch was issued. parameters are pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 all of the guidance really ramps up the shear later in the day as the shortwave approaches honestly -- not even sure why a watch was issued. parameters are pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 16z has around 1500 MLCAPE in DC with small 2000 in northern VA... LI's -3 to -5... 2000-2500 SBCAPE 18z -- 2000 MLCAPE and 3000 SBCAPE in N VA/DC/C MD... LI's -5 to -6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Line bowing out west of Cumberland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 The line is looking healthy. certainly more healthy than the HRRR has projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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