IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Still mostly cloudy here! Been down this road before! Doubt we see much. In other news tomorrow looks amazing for my wedding! Last time you said that southern and western areas got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Less expensive for sure. We were tempted, but stuck with the traditional Saturday. 15 years ago next week! I am getting married next july 3rd, which falls on a sunday. We were going to do a saturday wedding but sunday was cheaper and people do not have work the next day because of the holiday. Hoping for some good thunderstorms today too. I was going to drive out to PA but i will probably stay along the jersey city waterfront and try and get some lightning shots over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What is up with these clouds? Where are the breaks of sun at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1159 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND FAR NORTH VACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 091659Z - 091900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INCREASINGDAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOONPARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV ANDADJACENT FAR NORTHERN VA.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKEERIE VICINITY TOWARD NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE APRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARDACROSS PA/NJ. UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV/FARSOUTHWEST PA AT 17Z SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND POTENTIALLY GROWUPSCALE OVER TIME...WHILE ADDITIONAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SHOULDALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF/PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY.INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PACOINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERYAMID AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED WARM SECTOR.ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A COMBINATION OFSEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE LINE/BOWSWILL BE AIDED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG STRENGTHENING BELT OFLOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAMUPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESTRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL...PARTICULARLYIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS PA /ANDEVENTUALLY NJ/...GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...LAT...LON 41567536 40547523 38807635 39357922 40388015 4179769741567536 Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It's clueless with convection. Mt Holly NWS reamains skeptical on severe weather in the latest AFD, but keeps the door open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Mt Holly NWS reamains skeptical on severe weather in the latest AFD, but keeps the door open. Well all of this cloud cover has certainly kept things from becoming as unstable as they could be, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Target for staging: Lansdale, pa. my hometown--where are you in town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 The sun is slowly but surely coming out here. Skies have really brighten in the last 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Things are going to have to get going in a hurry IMO to get anything other than heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 TOR watch to our West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Things are going to have to get going in a hurry IMO to get anything other than heavy rain Let us know when you're not skeptical about an event. That would be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Let us know when you're not skeptical about an event. That would be a first. We live in the Northeast, one always has to be skeptical of severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 We live in the Northeast, one always has to be skeptical of severe It doesn't have to meet official severe criteria in order to be a nasty storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What I find interesting is that the ocean off the NJ coast seems to have zero affect on convection. They have already been nailed multiple times this year. Some of the most severe storms I have ever experienced have been while at my shore house in Atlantic County. SW flow is offshore in jersey. Onshore on Long Island. Makes all the diffrence in the world How about the last truly severe storm in my town was Labor Day 1998!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 SW flow is offshore in jersey. Onshore on Long Island. Makes all the diffrence in the world How about the last truly severe storm in my town was Labor Day 1998!!!!! Well then you answered your own question, if you want to experience stronger storms but live by the Ocean, the Jersey shore is the place for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Problem with LI is that any wind direction is a onshore flow. Maybe due west is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Well then you answered your own question, if you want to experience stronger storms but live by the Ocean, the Jersey shore is the place for you. It can happen here to though. I saw a legit severe storm at jones beach last summer with hail and winds over 60 that threw outdoor furnitue and signs As far as today no way it's happening out here cloudy and cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Sun was out thru the clouds for about 20 Min. Warmed the temps up 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Jesus. You can't guess severe potential by looking out the window. We're going to be advecting in the instability. If the front doesn't clear, then we wont have surface-based convection, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 With severe it's a total crapshoot so my expectations are very low. We're getting sun though if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Jesus. You can't guess severe potential by looking out the window. We're going to be advecting in the instability. If the front doesn't clear, then we wont have surface-based convection, obviously. On the island where it's hard enough to get severe looking at a full deck of clouds means not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Warm front finally pushing East. Skies should continue to brighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably adjusting to Pottstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 We're still well below the midnight high in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 And just like that, full sunshine and blue skies overhead. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably adjusting to Pottstown. Just a guess but thinking Allentown-Scranton is probably going to be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Suns out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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