IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 An MCS currently located near Lake Erie is forecasted to cross PA/NY towards our area sometime around 00z tonight. Behind these morning showers, sunshine should prevail which will lead to increased SBCAPE by late afternoon. Although models seem to focus the bulk of heavy rain just North of the area, higher res models develop a large amount of convection on the southern side of the MCS which looks to affect NNJ, NYC, LHV and LI. SPC has placed Western areas under a slight risk for severe today, including a 5% TOR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Slight risk area expanded slightly to the east. Enhanced risk for far western sections now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Thinking of driving to PA today for some storm photography. Will wait a few hours to see where the best spot to setup would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Thinking of driving to PA today for some storm photography. Will wait a few hours to see where the best spot to setup would be.west of allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Another nice setup for supercells in our area. We've had more than our share of those this season - we've had a lot of convection with backed winds. No big TORs yet, but that's just a numbers game. We get enough of these and eventually something will drop. That Allentown cell the other week probably was very close to turning into another Springfield, MA 6/1/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Like clockwork the 12z NAM has shifted the MCS significantly South with the bulk of rain over NE PA, LHV and NNJ. Models are almost always 50-100 miles too far North 12-24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Like clockwork the 12z NAM has shifted the MCS significantly South with the bulk of rain over NE PA, LHV and NNJ. Models are almost always 50-100 miles too far North 12-24 hours out. At least you had a soaker this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 At least you had a soaker this morning. I'll take the rain, you know I love it. The more the better, especially while I'm at work I think those flood watches should be expanded another two tiers South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Pouring this morning in southern Westchester...Saw Mill Pkwy getting pretty flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Nothing here outside of a couple sprinkles. Marine layer in place, 68/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Pouring this morning in southern Westchester...Saw Mill Pkwy getting pretty flooded.yup was on my way to drop my car off at acura and it was pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I love living 4 miles from the ocean but I also hate it. Can't buy a drop of rain during the warm season. I like this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 I love living 4 miles from the ocean but I also hate it. Can't buy a drop of rain during the warm season. I like this event What I find interesting is that the ocean off the NJ coast seems to have zero affect on convection. They have already been nailed multiple times this year. Some of the most severe storms I have ever experienced have been while at my shore house in Atlantic County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably goin to pull the trigger and chase. If storms end up in nj we've been in touch with my bosses at news12 for hopefully live stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably goin to pull the trigger and chase. If storms end up in nj we've been in touch with my bosses at news12 for hopefully live stream. Good luck! Looking forward to seeing some pics/video later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Probably goin to pull the trigger and chase. If storms end up in nj we've been in touch with my bosses at news12 for hopefully live stream. Yeah, i am thinking about it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Still mostly cloudy here! Been down this road before! Doubt we see much. In other news tomorrow looks amazing for my wedding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Like clockwork the 12z NAM has shifted the MCS significantly South with the bulk of rain over NE PA, LHV and NNJ. Models are almost always 50-100 miles too far North 12-24 hours out. 12 Z GFS looks rather dry for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Still mostly cloudy here! Been down this road before! Doubt we see much. In other news tomorrow looks amazing for my wedding! who gets married on a Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 who gets married on a Friday? I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I do I knew that line was coming. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I do Are you having snow machines at your reception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It's been awhile since we've had a truly severe t-storm here. Hopefully this evening will deliver. I want damaging winds that knock down trees and cause power outtages. It's been too long since we've had a t-storm like that here. It probably won't happen, but I can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 who gets married on a Friday? Less expensive for sure. We were tempted, but stuck with the traditional Saturday. 15 years ago next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Are you having snow machines at your reception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I do Congrats . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Target for staging: Lansdale, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 12 Z GFS looks rather dry for most people. It's clueless with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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