Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 That's a strange place to put the high risk... you'd think the high risk would be placed where the bow echo is most mature... which won't happen with the initial development. Other areas could be added later as conditions unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The only thing that is somewhat missing over E/C MN is good shear. So unless storms can stay discrete a bit longer after initiation, it would appear that wind and hail are the biggest threats here. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tornadoes spin up in W MN. One interesting note is that some of the models now have the storms firing father west towards the Dakota borders, as opposed to C MN in previous runs. Looks like they'll have longer to become more linear as they move into eastern portions of MPX. Either way, this will be quite interesting later today. given the clouds we have here in the north end of St Paul due to the outflow from the storms that went through Hinckley and Grantsburg earlier on, we probably now have the extra boundary we need at the surface to give us the right shear now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Looks like an outflow boundary from earlier convection north of the TC is drifting SSW. If that thing gets hung up it could add to more fuel to the fire later. CAPE values skyrocketing to the west. Its also helping to mix out these stubborn low clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Other areas could be added later as conditions unfold True. Now that I think about it, the high risk on 6/12/13 was placed near the initial development and verified just fine. A look at the EML plume: -14 LI, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Amazing looking supercell near Decatur IL, which is astoundingly unwarned. Was at a party 2 miles N of Decatur and watched this beast roll in. Thought I saw a broad rotating wall cloud, but much of my view was obscured by terrain and darkness. Lost power 4 times, and had prolific lighting. Still large areas of flooding in Decatur this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 given the clouds we have here in the north end of St Paul due to the outflow from the storms that went through Hinckley and Grantsburg earlier on, we probably now have the extra boundary we need at the surface to give us the right shear now.Pretty clear on satellite too. I'd expect the best threat for tornadoes to be from near the ND/SD/MN border into central MN. It doesn't hurt that much of the inflow environment has dew-points of 77-78F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 A few surface and upper air maps from 8/28/1990 and 7/13/2004 from Jon Finch's site July 13, 2004 August 28, 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Critical Weather Day in effect for today and Monday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/cwd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Critical Weather Day in effect for today and Monday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/cwd/ Their locations for tomorrow are off. They said from Central Illinois where it should really be from Northern Illinois. Or am I missing something? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Their locations for tomorrow are off. They said from Central Illinois where it should really be from Northern Illinois. Or am I missing something? haha It was declared prior to the afternoon day 2 outlook being released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 It was declared prior to the afternoon day 2 outlook being released. Ahh makes sense. I thought it was just declared, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I heard from someone whos uncle works for the NWS (I've confirmed his uncle is an employee, he aint bluffing) that the SPC is considering a day one High Risk for Wind across Illinois and Exteme Nortwest Indiana. That would make sense given the parameters and an expected hurricane force derecho. And it saddens me to think of all the tree damage given the saturated soils and wind potential with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 This was posted over on Accuweather forums, which is the RPM taken off someone's Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Numerous upper 70s dewpoints in southwestern MN and western/central IA, with a few 80+ readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Numerous upper 70s dewpoints in southwestern MN and western/central IA, with a few 80+ readings. 7500 SBCAPE. Hope we get some special soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 That would make sense given the parameters and an expected hurricane force derecho. And it saddens me to think of all the tree damage given the saturated soils and wind potential with this system. Epic tree damage scenario should the widespread damaging winds pan out. Rarely have we been in a wet stretch like this, and probably hasn't been timed with such a potent severe weather setup too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 HRRR has intense storms starting around 22z. With so much CAPE, these cells are gonna explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Signs of weak convective development in far eastern SD. Should really light up by 4 p.m. or so in west-central Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 NAM is doing pretty well with dewpoints out west right now. Really makes you wonder about its output for tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 NAM is doing pretty well with dewpoints out west right now. Really makes you wonder about its output for tomorrow lol.I think dews will have no problem reaching 80F across much of Illinois tomorrow. Guidance has been doing well and moisture return has been solid even well up into Minnesota. Forecasts had low to mid-70s, but plenty of areas near the NAM progs of upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 MPX doing a special launch per Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I think dews will have no problem reaching 80F across much of Illinois tomorrow. Guidance has been doing well and moisture return has been solid even well up into Minnesota. Forecasts had low to mid-70s, but plenty of areas near the NAM progs of upper 70s. This would be something to see. Just don't get such coverage of 80+ much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 NAM is doing pretty well with dewpoints out west right now. Really makes you wonder about its output for tomorrow lol. They'll verify. They always do this time of year and it's always funny to watch some offices not buy into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 lol @ at the lifted index @ 300 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Sun starting to break thru the overcast at times. Dew point up to 74. It's gonna get nasty. Mesoscale discussion indicates the first watches going up soon for ND and W MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0345 AM TORNADO 2 SW TRAFALGAR 39.39N 86.18W 07/12/2015 JOHNSON IN NWS STORM SURVEY WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE FROM SAMARIA ALONG STATE ROUTE 135 TO PRINCES LAKES. TEN HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM TREES FALLING ON THEM. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENT WITH A HIGH END EF-0 TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Ye old clown map for fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 They'll verify. They always do this time of year and it's always funny to watch some offices not buy into them. IWX is buying in EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE WELL DEVELOPED AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST SOILS FROM THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 IWX is buying in Can only imagine how humid that type of DP would feel like. It'll make the low/mid 70F dews here seem pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0345 AM TORNADO 2 SW TRAFALGAR 39.39N 86.18W 07/12/2015 JOHNSON IN NWS STORM SURVEY WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE FROM SAMARIA ALONG STATE ROUTE 135 TO PRINCES LAKES. TEN HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM TREES FALLING ON THEM. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENT WITH A HIGH END EF-0 TORNADO. Somewhat of a surprise. Most concern in the area was overnight heavy rain. 2 inches here...heavier west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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