Central Illinois Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Decatur reported a 62mph wind gust at 10:02 according to local met Sent from my iPhone 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Now that we're playing games with soundings, SharpPy sounding program shows 9781 J/kg for Topeka (KTOP) at 48 Hrs (00z NAM). Fairly similar location/sounding to what you posted. Nice! I will now one-up you. 10416 j/kg via SHARPpy. Same location...hour 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Nice! I will now one-up you. 10416 j/kg via SHARPpy. Same location...hour 49. 122 degree heat index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 This is turning into a one up you most CAPE thing. Topeka isn't even in the SLGT risk on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 This is turning into a one up you most CAPE thing. Topeka isn't even in the SLGT risk on Monday... Time to bump that most unstable soundings thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just to get a convo going... any thoughts/speculation on what SPC is gonna do with the new day 1 and 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just to get a convo going... any thoughts/speculation on what SPC is gonna do with the new day 1 and 2? EXPANSION X P A N S I O N 12 and 18Z were alot stronger all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 with model examples like what was shown in this thread, can we all agree model soundings like those are the reason why we're supposed to treat the models like they are supposed to be, an opinion based on a really big matrixed math problem, and not the word of god? besides, if you want to see some real funky model soundings, pick the ones up this way near or just after 00z for STC and MSP when the thunderstorms are going on. they look as funky as the "Skew U" sounding on the 1992/1993 PSU Campus Wx t-shirt. that being said, if the GFS and Canadian regional at 00Z look anywhere near as bad, we are in big trouble here in MN, from AXN to STC, the twin cities metro, and down to FBL, RST, and LSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 with model examples like what was shown in this thread, can we all agree model soundings like those are the reason why we're supposed to treat the models like they are supposed to be, an opinion based on a really big matrixed math problem, and not the word of god? besides, if you want to see some real funky model soundings, pick the ones up this way near or just after 00z for STC and MSP when the thunderstorms are going on. they look as funky as the "Skew U" sounding on the 1992/1993 PSU Campus Wx t-shirt. that being said, if the GFS and Canadian regional at 00Z look anywhere near as bad, we are in big trouble here in MN, from AXN to STC, the twin cities metro, and down to FBL, RST, and LSE. At least for me, these crazy soundings are just eye candy/weather porn. If something like that actually verifies, that makes it even better. If these parameters verify, it'll definitely be an event to remember for me... even though it's happening hundreds of miles from home... just like 6/16/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 EXPANSION X P A N S I O N 12 and 18Z were alot stronger all over the place. D1, expansion of the enhanced area into eastern IA and NW IL, and a moderate risk for most of southern/southeastern MN and areas near the mississippi/st croix rivers in WI, including STC, RST, LSE and the Twin Cities. D2, probably keep as-is if not maybe expand the marginal/slight areas a bit more north and east to include GRB and GRR. but wait on the moderate risk for the Ohio Valley until you see what happens with other boundaries from the upcoming d1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 CIPS analogs for Monday, based off the 00z NAM. A number of sig severe reports in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 one thing I'm noticing for this system from the GFS and the Canadian regional. They both seem like they want to not only carry through with the first and main wave like the NAM, but they both want to bring a 2nd wave of storms on the back edge of the cool pool late in the overnight. I'm hoping that's a convective feedback issue, like the GFS has had issues with in the past. Because if not, that 2nd wave would be able to pick apart the areas that didnt' get major damage, but were weakened by wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 one thing I'm noticing for this system from the GFS and the Canadian regional. They both seem like they want to not only carry through with the first and main wave like the NAM, but they both want to bring a 2nd wave of storms on the back edge of the cool pool late in the overnight. I'm hoping that's a convective feedback issue, like the GFS has had issues with in the past. Because if not, that 2nd wave would be able to pick apart the areas that didnt' get major damage, but were weakened by wave 1.Here's your RGEM forecast sounding for MSP at 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Here's your RGEM forecast sounding for MSP at 18z: image.jpg Pound salt quincy....j/k Anyways, sounding for cincinnati and the home run derby monday night. Surprised at the wind profile more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Day 2 moderate for central IL/IN into KY. Extreme sw OH as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Day 1 moderate for parts of MN/WI/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 "...IL...IN...KY...SWRN OH: DAYTIME... A DYING MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN WI INTO NRN IL EARLYMON MORNING...WITH OTHER STORMS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS IL AND WRNINDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.WITH LITTLE CAPPING PRESENT...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOSTRENGTHEN ACROSS INDIANA...NRN KY AND WRN OH THROUGHOUT THEDAY...POSSIBLY FOCUSED ON A SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NWHICH MAY ALSO EXTEND WWD INTO CNTRL IL BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THEPREVIOUS DAYS MCS. AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE DURING THEDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLSESPECIALLY NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BEENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGINGBOWS POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY.WHILE COMPLEX STORM INTERACTIONS ARE PROBABLE...THE LONG HODOGRAPHSAND EXTREME BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE." From day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 This is my first time being in a moderate risk since 11/17/13... man, it's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I hate being in the Southern Michigan suck zone. If I get lucky it could go a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 For the northern part of the risk area on day 2, there's this: ..SRN WI...NRN IL...NRN IND...SWRN LOWER MI: NIGHTTIME MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM OVER WI LATE IN THE DAY...AND TRAVEL SEWD AFFECTING NRN IL AND INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL ON THE STATE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN WI. If it plays out right, could get multiple rounds of pretty nice storms. OTOH, another scenario is that the morning MCS fizzles and destabilization is slowed with the Monday night stuff not being all that exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Combine the fact that we are talking about a possible high end damaging wind event with the fact that much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has an absolutely completely saturated ground could mean big trouble in terms of trees being uprooted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Combine the fact that we are talking about a possible high end damaging wind event with the fact that much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has an absolutely completely saturated ground could mean big trouble in terms of trees being uprooted. This is a great point and if a well formed derecho were to occur, I think they would upgrade to a High tomorrow. The potential is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The upper level structure for today looks better than it does for tomorrow on the NAM. There is a PV anomaly approaching central MN with lots of UL divergence in that left exit region of the jet streak. I don't know...today might be just as interesting as tomorrow...if not more so. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The upper level structure for today looks better than it does for tomorrow on the NAM. There is a PV anomaly approaching central MN with lots of UL divergence in that left exit region of the jet streak. I don't know...today might be just as interesting as tomorrow...if not more so. Thoughts? Yeah today could have some really impressive storms over MN and eventually western WI. Could even be some tornadoes today especially if the storms remain discrete for any prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 It's also simulating an impressive pressure perturbation at the surface underneath a little venting mini-high above 300mb. The last time I saw it do that was 6/3/14 which was a high risk day for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The only thing that is somewhat missing over E/C MN is good shear. So unless storms can stay discrete a bit longer after initiation, it would appear that wind and hail are the biggest threats here. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tornadoes spin up in W MN. One interesting note is that some of the models now have the storms firing father west towards the Dakota borders, as opposed to C MN in previous runs. Looks like they'll have longer to become more linear as they move into eastern portions of MPX. Either way, this will be quite interesting later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The only thing that is somewhat missing over E/C MN is good shear. So unless storms can stay discrete a bit longer after initiation, it would appear that wind and hail are the biggest threats here. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tornadoes spin up in W MN. One interesting note is that some of the models now have the storms firing father west towards the Dakota borders, as opposed to C MN in previous runs. Looks like they'll have longer to become more linear as they move into eastern portions of MPX. Either way, this will be quite interesting later today.I wouldn't say shear is bad either. 30-40kts of bulk shear and S/SSE low-level winds veering to WNW/NW in the upper levels. Big CAPE and forcing should be enough given the wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 From MPX's AFD: THE BIGGERCONCERN WILL BE THE QUICKLY EVOLVING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAILTHREAT. THINK WIND DRIVEN BASEBALL HAIL TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The 12z NAM is scary for tomorrow IMO Stronger instability and further north, the wave is strong strong leading to 50-55kts of shear and now the 12z run deepens the sfc low to 998mb which increases the low level flow/low level shear as storms develop across srn WI and head into nrn IL ahead of the deepening sfc flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The 12z NAM is scary for tomorrow IMO Stronger instability and further north, the wave is strong strong leading to 50-55kts of shear and now the 12z run deepens the sfc low to 998mb which increases the low level flow/low level shear as storms develop across srn WI and head into nrn IL ahead of the deepening sfc flow. Excellent veering with height at around 21z as initiation occurs over southern WI, shown by the high SCP values. Also STP remains high given the stronger west south west 850 mb flow. Storm mode is likely to be discrete given perpendicular orientation of northwest deep layer shear vector to cold front laid out west southwest to east northeast. Very ominous run for northern IL. If rest of 12z suite comes in similar, would expect MDT to be expanded to entire LOT CWA.I'm becoming more convinced that morning MCS will also likely be severe given 3k-4k j/kg of MUCAPE with 60-70 kt NW flow at jet level, but also that the MCS will not limit the late day potential much because of subsidence behind it and favorable timing of next shortwave disturbance moving in from NW and convergence along cold front as instability is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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