ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 WPC for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Yeah but tracking an EML plume by clicking on a bunch of soundings isn't really worth it, and I don't think anyone actually does that. Mesoanalysis is great but it doesn't forecast lapse rates. The only thing that does, that I'm aware of, is SREF. Even so, it's not a great model. AccuPro (And perhaps their HazWx products too) have a variety of Lapse Rates to choose from including the Euro. That's about the only one I know of. All these new Ohio people rooting for a N shift like its winter Trend of the year is the boundary never makes it as far north as originally expected. Not going to pretend to be optimistic for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Present svr warned storm between Macomb and Quincy moving se might be one to watch. Back from a week visiting relatives in nw IN's Calumet region and can report the Wabash is flooding the bottom lands along I-65 much more extensively than I noticed when I drove north this past Sunday. And I find the IND AFD very interesting reading. Going to be an active several upcoming days for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 There's some question whether the warm-front will even make it here. Was originally forecast to swing northward tonight, then it was pushed to Sunday night... Now it's looking like Monday afternoon. Hopeful for atleast temperatures above 75° at this point. 80° my mind would be blown - a thunderstorm and I won't even know what to do with myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I would expect that Monday, after the MCS moves through, to be socked in by clouds, most if not all day, and no further activity in the afternoon. Whenever we are forecast for severe weather, and an overnight MCS moves through, it almost always kills the chances for any afternoon severe storms if the storms are forecast for that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 this is 100% anecdotal and I'm not a huge severe wx fan or follower, but I've often noticed over the last several years that when it comes to the OV and eastern MW, the more telegraphed and hyped a severe wx event is suppose to be, the more it tends to flop. The most severe wx event I've experienced was the historic derecho of June 29-30 2012. The wind damage was unreal in it's scope. There was little if any warning that day about severe weather. The second most severe event was the wind storm that was the remnants of hurricane Ike in September '09(?). Again, not even a wind advisory the morning of. Yeah the June 29 derecho wasn't detected by the near-term models until ~6 hours before it actually happened. Given the circumstances, that's not too surprising. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jun292012page.htm Hurricane Ike was in 2007... we did have a high wind warning, but I don't blame you for not remembering that because not many people expected that. LOT doesn't sound too optimistic smh...how can neither of you guys remember that Ike was in 2008? It was only about the most damaging wind event from a remnant system that has ever struck the region (certainly top 2 or 3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 All I can say is that forecaster tends to be on the conservative side when it comes to writing about severe threats. Oh okay. Makes sense, everyone has their own glass half full/empty ideas in forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 smh...how can neither of you guys remember that Ike was in 2008? It was only about the most damaging wind event from a remnant system that has ever struck the region (certainly top 2 or 3). http://www.weatherco.com/blog/weather/8_17237.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Have to wonder about storm mode tomorrow. Some of the NAM (12z and 18z) forecast soundings are pretty extreme in southern Minnesota early tomorrow evening. I'm very cautious about using NAM forecast radar based on performance this warm season, but it is showing only a few cells through 02z/03z across southern MN and western IA. Assuming cells can fire and remain at least semi-discrete in this environment (S MN and perhaps much of IA), look out: nam_thetae.gif That would spell much more of a tornado threat than I had first thought. Definitely looks like things may start discrete in central MN. As long as the cap breaks as expected, things could get rocking around here. The pump will be primed with temps near 90 and dews over 70. Didn't check the 18z suite yet, but some of the 12z runs had close to 3500-4000 J/kg of surface based Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 00z NAM is more unstable into Indiana and western Ohio tomorrow compared to the 12z run. Storms finally get going in Minnesota around 00z. NAM has the MCS riding right along the instability gradient. At 06z (the radar image below), 12z NAM had another MCS on top of Chicago... but it's not there in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 South and west is the trend Continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 00z NAM is more unstable into Indiana and western Ohio tomorrow compared to the 12z run. Storms finally get going in Minnesota around 00z. NAM has the MCS riding right along the instability gradient. At 06z (the radar image below), 12z NAM had another MCS on top of Chicago... but it's not there in this run. It gets to Chicago after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 It gets to Chicago after 6z. Indeed but this is what I was talking about. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/US/namUS_prec_radar_042.gif Storm initiation on Monday is further west than 12z (happens in north-central Indiana) and happens 3 hours earlier. Strong-extreme instability is more into Ohio at 18z. Squall moves southeasterly. You see new development in Lake Michigan... that's the start of a new squall. The westward extent of this "squall", into Illinois and west-central Indiana, looks more broken... might be a broken line of supercells there. Big tornado threat in that case. Needless to say... excellent run for W OH and IN... but I don't buy it because it seems too good to be true. We'll see what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 NAM still going cray cray with the dewpoints. Cut this by 3-5 and you still have a zone near 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Pretty scary 0z NAM scenario...places in and around the chi metro are uncapped early with plenty of shear. 15z and 18z forecast soundings for Joliet. Looks like fairly semi discrete convection behind the initial MCS by 18z. The tornado threat might end up being earlier in the day/early afternoon before the helicty values begin to decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Another thing, the overall wave is stronger this run as it moves across WI which enhances the wind fields/shear, both bulk shear and helicity values in the early-mid afternoon hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Have to wonder about storm mode tomorrow. Some of the NAM (12z and 18z) forecast soundings are pretty extreme in southern Minnesota early tomorrow evening. I'm very cautious about using NAM forecast radar based on performance this warm season, but it is showing only a few cells through 02z/03z across southern MN and western IA. Assuming cells can fire and remain at least semi-discrete in this environment (S MN and perhaps much of IA), look out: nam_thetae.gif That would spell much more of a tornado threat than I had first thought. Quincy, It's not just the NAM, the Euro has some crazy parameters as well just west of MSP, all be it a bit slower. 1km and 3km heleicities at 200 overlaid on a surface cape of 5000-5500. That gives you a 1km EHI approaching 7 and 3km approaching 6, max updraft speed of 100 knots. 500mb winds are not great, only around 35knts, but with the crazy thermals it may just enough to allow rotating updrafts up through 500mb. At any rate this looks like our best set up of not only this year, but last year as well. Lapse rates are sufficient as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 NAM still going cray cray with the dewpoints. Cut this by 3-5 and you still have a zone near 80. namconus_Td2m_ncus_17.png That is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 9300 CAPE... Excellent pattern all throughout the run. I think I can one-up you. How about a 9486 along the MO/IA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Anyone know what the SBCAPE record is? According to the SPC sounding climatology ILX in central Illinois had an official RAOB measured value of 8325 j/kg. Anyone know the date when that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Amazing looking supercell near Decatur IL, which is astoundingly unwarned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Pretty scary 0z NAM scenario...places in and around the chi metro are uncapped early with plenty of shear. 15z and 18z forecast soundings for Joliet. Looks like fairly semi discrete convection behind the initial MCS by 18z. The tornado threat might end up being earlier in the day/early afternoon before the helicty values begin to decrease JOT.gif jot1.gif Monday is more messy than ideal...little doubt we're going to get some massive thunderstorm development but that overnight/morning MCS muddles things. What else is new I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I think I can one-up you. How about a 9486 along the MO/IA border. I can one-up your one-up... this is in NE KS Absolutely insane we're still seeing this 48 hours out. HRRR has 5100 SBCAPE in SW MN by 15z tomorrow.... seems legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Anyone know what the SBCAPE record is? According to the SPC sounding climatology ILX in central Illinois had an official RAOB measured value of 8325 j/kg. Anyone know the date when that happened? I'd guess either 7/13/04 or 8/4/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Amazing looking supercell near Decatur IL, which is astoundingly unwarned. finally warned it, with good rotation too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I'd guess either 7/13/04 or 8/4/08. 8/4/08. Well, the 00z Aug 5 RAOB. This is probably the record at ILX, even though the numbers are a bit off from what bdgwx posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Amazing looking supercell near Decatur IL, which is astoundingly unwarned. Indeed! Went a few miles east of me but I easily had 60-70mph winds and non-stop Lightning...very surprised it wasn't Tornado warned considering radar showed good rotation the whole time it was in the county Sent from my iPhone 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Nice find ClicheVortex. And well played And equally nice find hoosier. I've noticed the CAPE calculations are highly variable depending on the source. Here is that same sounding for 8/5/2008 00Z from the UWYO RAOB archive. It shows 7534 j/kg if using the virtual temp correction method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I think I can one-up you. How about a 9486 along the MO/IA border. Now that we're playing games with soundings, SharpPy sounding program shows 9781 J/kg for Topeka (KTOP) at 48 Hrs (00z NAM). Fairly similar location/sounding to what you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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