CapitalKid Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Hey, awesome reports from all of you all. I'm sitting here in Frankfort, KY, with my house right on the edge of a flood zone. If these storms hit like I think they will, I'll flood for the second time this year. I'll try and keep you all posted on what's going on here as long as it's meteorologic. But I appreciate all your info thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1115 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM HAIL MARSEILLES 41.33N 88.69W 07/13/2015 E3.75 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC 500 SYCAMORE ST. HAIL 3.75 INCHES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Got the best and worst here. The first MCS this morning was a rainer, .62. But the severe aspects split just NW of me according to the storm reports. Recovered nicely by 6pm with 81/75. Had plenty of ingredients for round 2. Seemed the storm track split just NW along 65. Everything east of 65 went linear and moved east, while everything west was discreet. and moved SE/SSE, which seemed backwards to my uneducated armchair forecasting anyway.. Guess I could say I was in a severe weather screw hole. Had a great light show all the way around, some momentary gusts of 30. The old timers around here always say its because this area is in a valley, starting to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI1237 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON......DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1220 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSE WOODVILLE 43.58N 85.64W07/14/2015 NEWAYGO MI AMATEUR RADIOTREE REPORTED DOWN ON A CAR WITH PEOPLEINSIDE. RELAYED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1115 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM HAIL MARSEILLES 41.33N 88.69W 07/13/2015 E3.75 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC 500 SYCAMORE ST. HAIL 3.75 INCHES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE. That's the second huge hail report this year for LOT's CWA. Certainly some rare air this year for LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Managed to shoot the gap with the afternoon redevelopment. Rockford cell merged with an isolated cell earlier as I thought it might, but it never made it quite far enough south to do anything but give DKB a fantastic light show. All in all an enjoyable weather day. Top notch severe MCS this morning, followed by full clearing and heating. Just missed the second round by about 15 miles in either direction, but was able to sit in the deck, drink a beer, and watch the lightshow of the line as it approached Rockford this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Managed to shoot the gap with the afternoon redevelopment. Rockford cell merged with an isolated cell earlier as I thought it might, but it never made it quite far enough south to do anything but give DKB a fantastic light show. All in all an enjoyable weather day. Top notch severe MCS this morning, followed by full clearing and heating. Just missed the second round by about 15 miles in either direction, but was able to sit in the deck, drink a beer, and watch the lightshow of the line as it approached Rockford this evening. Sounds pretty cool. Morning MCS grazed this area, and severe action with main show missed south. Haven't had an actual severe storm here in a few years, but it's cool since I'm usually not here anyways due to either work, or out chasing it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Managed to shoot the gap with the afternoon redevelopment. Rockford cell merged with an isolated cell earlier as I thought it might, but it never made it quite far enough south to do anything but give DKB a fantastic light show. All in all an enjoyable weather day. Top notch severe MCS this morning, followed by full clearing and heating. Just missed the second round by about 15 miles in either direction, but was able to sit in the deck, drink a beer, and watch the lightshow of the line as it approached Rockford this evening. Same here... good day for SW OH. We haven't had a good severe MCS in a long time... this one hit the spot. Then most of the area just got hit by another mini-MCS... was pretty fun. I wonder what the record is for the longest-lived MCS. I'm sure this one trekked 1000 miles today as it's just now approaching the coast in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Still puzzled as to why today didn't produce more than it did. As others mentioned it probably was the weak low-levels. Despite fairly small dewpoint depressions, cloud bases seemed a little higher than I would have expected. Not that they were high, but I was sort of expecting ground scraping rain-free bases out there. That certainly wasn't the case. Also, unlike 6/22, the sups had fairly short inflow tails, which was sort of odd. The main 6/22 sup in northwest IL had the longest beaver/inflow tail on it that I've ever seen, and was ground scraping as well. Just seems the lack of ambient surface inflow into the ongoing sups kept the sups rather pedestrian, despite the huge parameters. Kind of reminds me of 6/7/08 northwest MO monster supercell that had everything going for it except decent low-levels and despite it producing 5" hail, it never produced a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 i think the worst part about these storms will be flooding. Which I'm quite concerned about. Sitting here in Frankfort, KY, at FCC. We flood a lot out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 TWC says this was a derecho... I thought you need at least 4 significant wind reports? http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/severe-weather-tracker-page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Not all Derecho's are created equal All derechos are equal, but some derechos are more equal than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Not all Derecho's are created equal Well yeah but there are certain criteria that need to be met for an MCS/QLCS to be called a derecho, otherwise it's just a long-lived severe MCS/QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Still puzzled as to why today didn't produce more than it did. As others mentioned it probably was the weak low-levels. Despite fairly small dewpoint depressions, cloud bases seemed a little higher than I would have expected. Not that they were high, but I was sort of expecting ground scraping rain-free bases out there. That certainly wasn't the case. Also, unlike 6/22, the sups had fairly short inflow tails, which was sort of odd. The main 6/22 sup in northwest IL had the longest beaver/inflow tail on it that I've ever seen, and was ground scraping as well. Just seems the lack of ambient surface inflow into the ongoing sups kept the sups rather pedestrian, despite the huge parameters. Kind of reminds me of 6/7/08 northwest MO monster supercell that had everything going for it except decent low-levels and despite it producing 5" hail, it never produced a tornado. Agree with all of this. I'm think if you strengthen the low level flow, particularly in the lowest km, you get a totally different result. With the number of discrete storms that were on the board through parts of this, that would've gotten out of hand in a New York minute. There was also a big problem with moisture depth further west, as exemplified by the 00z ILX sounding. Sure you had 80s Tds near the surface, but the layer was very shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 just had a warned cell pop up had some decent hail with it lasted about 2 minutes and non-stop thunder/lightning for about 15mins NWUS53 KILX 140603LSRILXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL103 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1245 AM HAIL MOUNT ZION 39.78N 88.88W07/14/2015 E0.88 INCH MACON IL TRAINED SPOTTERNICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTED ABOUT TWO MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I am just now trying to catch up here. I had to deal with flooding in Northern Huntington County. Here is my report to NWS:000NWUS53 KIWX 140620LSRIWXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA220 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON......DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0218 AM FLASH FLOOD ROANOKE 40.96N 85.37W07/14/2015 HUNTINGTON IN EMERGENCY MNGRTHE TOWN OF ROANOKE EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANTFLASH FLOODING, WITH THE WHOLE DOWNTOWN AREAFLOODED. ONE TOWN OFFICIAL ESTIMATED 30HOMES AFFECTED BY FLOOD WATER. THERE WASALSO A BRIDGE WASHED OUT ON 1000 N JUSTNORTH OF ROANOKE. WATER SUBSIDING, PEOPLERETURNING TO HOMES. SOME BASEMENTS ARE STILLFLOODED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Oddly enough there was no second (or third) round here. I dodged all the storms tracks and training rainfall overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Who knows. All I know is that today is an example that there's still stuff to be figured out. I think it was the SBCIN that put the lid on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I think it was the SBCIN that put the lid on things No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE! thanks for this, makes a lot of sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE! Great analogy, thanks a bunch! So far managing to avoid flooding here, but Indiana and further to my south in OH got hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE! This make sense, but I want to get a better understand of the math - is this just based on readings? I know 6809 - 1185 = 5624, but I thought that ML Cape when I looked yesterday was in the 3-4k range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 This make sense, but I want to get a better understand of the math - is this just based on readings? I know 6809 - 1185 = 5624, but I thought that ML Cape when I looked yesterday was in the 3-4k range? The RAP (and, therefore, SPC mesoanalysis) didn't adequately capture the state of the boundary layer. This is a common problem amongst the vast majority of computer models, both those that explicitly resolve the boundary layer and those that have to parameterize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE! The RAP (and, therefore, SPC mesoanalysis) didn't adequately capture the state of the boundary layer. This is a common problem amongst the vast majority of computer models, both those that explicitly resolve the boundary layer and those that have to parameterize it. Was the surface to 100mb sampled yesterday? Was there too much shear which allows this layer to lose so much energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 In hindsight, although this event was challenging, it was really a turn off posting here. Especially being a new user, I don't appreciate my opinions just being thrown away just because I'm 'new' or they don't agree with big-time members. Or apparently if because I'm from Ohio?? Even worse is that I turned out to be right. Not a very good first impression of AW, sorry. I'd put my money on a northeast shift...imo there's no way the southwestern side of the current outlook will verify. Another thing that has me concerned is capping farther southwest. …upper level flow is more easterly westerly than southerly and northern ends of these MCSs produce the most damage… I just can't see that scenario with the current day 3...it's being underdone for Ohio. All these new Ohio people rooting for a N shift like its winter smells like a wishcast. These Ohio people driving me nuts smh. Quit wishcasting… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 In hindsight, although this event was challenging, it was really a turn off posting here. Especially being a new user, I don't appreciate my opinions just being thrown away just because I'm 'new' or they don't agree with big-time members. Or apparently if because I'm from Ohio?? Even worse is that I turned out to be right. Not a very good first impression of AW, sorry. I find it best to just sit on the sideline and see who has been the most accurate. I put more weight into what they say. I don't have enough courage to put down what I believe will happen. Even though I look at all the models and text information I can. It is nice to see others that do. If you just put what you believe and not take anything to heart, you will fit in. The Mets, and Mods do an outstanding job here. Stick around, it really is a great board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 141544Z - 141645ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITYWILL PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER WITH THE PRIMARY THREATBEING DAMAGING WINDS.DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITHINCLOUD-FREE CORRIDOR FROM WRN LAKE ERIE...SWWD INTO CNTRL INDIANA.SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND FURTHER STEEPENING ISEXPECTED WITH CONTINUED HEATING. CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASINGALONG SRN FLANK OF DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVELFLOW ACROSS NERN INDIANA INTO NWRN OH. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAYINITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING SHOULDRESULT IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION SOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEMSSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTORGANIZED BANDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. LATEST THINKING IS A MARKEDUPWARD TREND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXTFEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD THE OH RIVER BYLATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGHISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...DARROW/HART.. 07/14/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Ah, hindsight. I think Tony hit the nail on the head. Looking back at that special sounding out of DVN now, it should have had more impact on me than it did. The EML was really damn low, ~850mb. It's not a common problem to have around here, since most of the time we deal with EML bases around 700mb. But looking back at sat pics, Ma Nature was flying a strong signal yesterday with the general lack of decent cumulus fields in the uncontaminated portion of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Aaaand we have a watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 421NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHEAST INDIANANORTHERN KENTUCKYMARYLAND PANHANDLEOHIOWESTERN PENNSYLVANIANORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIALAKE ERIE* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL800 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELYISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEA TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLESUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO.THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS ITPROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATAS STORMS SPREAD TOWARD THE OH RIVER.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF CINCINNATI OHIO TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OFLATROBE PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEETHE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.