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July 11-14 Severe Weather Event


Powerball

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Given how relatively flat the heights are, I think most are pretty much prepared for the trend to be south and west, unless of course the main shortwave moving through manages to really amplify (instead of remaining sheared out and fast moving).

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Throwing an outdoor party Sunday evening, so this has my attention (more-so for general rain concerns than severe weather, but the latter is slowly starting to creep into the picture).

 

Drenching rains Saturday (point & click saying 0.5" to 0.75") should wipe out most of the firewood pile, despite a tarp already in place, and make for a pretty muddy backyard, not to mention the threat of storms and muggy conditions for Sunday. Fun stuff.

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Ugh... before the 00z runs, I thought we were gonna get a good/interesting day 3 outlook.... now I'm worried.

 

How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with.

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Bets on which NAM run spits out the magical 10,000.

 

...and the 7/11 00z it is.

 

I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote:

 

AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR

TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY

MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.

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...and the 7/11 00z it is.

 

I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote:

 

AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR

TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY

MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.

 

Well yeah he probably types up a bunch of good info in the AFD and then goes "just kidding" and deletes it before releasing it.

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...and the 7/11 00z it is.

 

I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote:

 

AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR

TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY

MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.

 

Here is a snippet from yesterdays AFD at IND by MR---This is a superior example of the detail needed in an AFD

 

THE WAVE ALOFT SET TO ARRIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY

NIGHT IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SHORT TERM AND AT FIRST GLANCE...

PRESENTS OMINOUS SIGNALS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. BULK OF

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL

INDIANA ON MONDAY TO THE TUNE OF 3000-5000 J/KG AND THIS SEEMS

REASONABLE CONSIDERING DEWPOINT AIR APPROACHING 75 DEGREES. WITH A

NOTED LOW LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM A

STRONGER JET ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...ALL THE FACTORS ARE

PRESENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A

SQUALL LINE OR MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD

BE THE MAIN THREATS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. VERY LIKELY

THAT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED

SHOULD ALL THIS COME TO FRUITION.

 
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How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with.

I thought we are/were. Most of the previous runs had a large bow echo for Indiana/west Ohio with extreme instability. Last night's runs still had this bow echo, but the instability was lower.

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Day 3 mentions a possible significant tornado threat "depending on the character of the outflow boundaries". I'm assuming Sunday's MCS timing, development, and track will all play a key role in this threat evolving or not. 

 

 

..ERN IA...IL...IN...WRN OH...KY...NRN TN...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
IL AND INDIANA NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEAR THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. DURING THE DAY...HEATING WILL RESULT IN EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION FORM THE FRONT WWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 70S F AND BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THEN...TWO GENERAL SCENARIOS ARE EXPECTED:

1...A REJUVENATION OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS. HERE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH
HEIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT DEPENDING ON THE CHARACTER OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH IS STILL TBD.


2...LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER IA AND EXPANDING
SSEWD ACROSS IL. THIS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM LATE-AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXTREME
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FOR THE SEASON ALL SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND AND HAIL.
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Day 3 mentions a possible significant tornado threat "depending on the character of the outflow boundaries". I'm assuming Sunday's MCS timing, development, and track will all play a key role in this threat evolving or not. 

 

Looks like the SPC is finally catching onto the 2015 theme of waiting until after the morning junk has left to make a call on the TOR threat. However with forecasted instability like this there may actually be a high amount even after morning convection, if there is some, makes its way out.

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Looks like the SPC is finally catching onto the 2015 theme of waiting until after the morning junk has left to make a call on the TOR threat. 

Looks like they are taking the safe route for sure, and I can't blame them. Nearly all forecast significant severe events this year have either under performed or busted horribly.

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How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with.

No, Ohio is one of the main threat regions. Remember what happened last time a D3 ENH was issued for an MCS event? It got screwed. I'd put my money on a northeast shift...imo there's no way the southwestern side of the current outlook will verify. Mid to upper level flow is more easterly than southerly and northern ends of these MCSs produce the most damage (the forward-propagating part of course). I just can't see that scenario with the current day 3...it's being underdone for Ohio.
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Tuesday also looks interesting but the models vary crazily with what's going to happen...especially the SREF plumes. I'm sure that indicates that something serious goes down in the region on Monday. Any mods want to change the title to 12-? rather than 10-13?

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No, Ohio is one of the main threat regions. Remember what happened last time a D3 ENH was issued for an MCS event? It got screwed. I'd put my money on a northeast shift...imo there's no way the southwestern side of the current outlook will verify. Mid to upper level flow is more easterly than southerly and northern ends of these MCSs produce the most damage (the forward-propagating part of course). I just can't see that scenario with the current day 3...it's being underdone for Ohio.

 

I think we'd call that westerly

 

smells like a wishcast.

 

WNW-NW flow at 500mb and 250mb...and with the orientation of the instability gradient, there is no way something organized is moving due east. 

 

 

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I think we'd call that westerly

 

smells like a wishcast.

 

WNW-NW flow at 500mb and 250mb...and with the orientation of the instability gradient, there is no way something organized is moving due east. 

 

attachicon.gifse1.gif

 

attachicon.gifse2.gif

It has the event starting on the right front quadrant of the 500mb jet streak in N IN. With that solution, the enhanced risk area should shift east because the bow moves nearly due south. But 12z GFS has a blob of precip near the IL/IA/WI border at 12z, and it moves southeasterly throughout the day... the storm track would justify the current position of the enhanced risk area.

 

Can't wait to read some AFDs later on. I have no clue what to think at this point.

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