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July 11-14 Severe Weather Event


Powerball

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If the models hold or slightly speed up, the MLB will have a nice test on monday. Hopefully the MLB and meteorologist advising them make the right calls. Cincy is going to be packed monday night. 

Yeah, with the models as they have been, I'm sure this has their attention. The problem is getting the word out that there could be some serious storms later. Think of how intense the lightning will be with 4000+ CAPE, then imagine the officials trying to get everyone to cover in time. As you said, it'll be a good test. It's like playing with fire though.

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Yeah if the models stay as they are now, I'm sure the Meteorologists in charge will be all over it. The problem is getting the word out that there could be some serious storms later. Think of how intense the lightning will be with 4000+ CAPE, then imagine the officials trying to get everyone to cover in time. As you said, it'll be a good test. It's like playing with fire though.

I worked at Great American Ball Park for a summer and they have a good system of tunnels that serve as tornado/severe weather shelters and are well marked. The new development with all the bars right next store to GABP will be packed and getting the word to people on the streets might be problematic. Hopefully our local mets do a good job giving people a heads up. 

 

Gonna try to get some sweet lightning shots though. 

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Yeah, with the models as they have been, I'm sure this has their attention. The problem is getting the word out that there could be some serious storms later. Think of how intense the lightning will be with 4000+ CAPE, then imagine the officials trying to get everyone to cover in time. As you said, it'll be a good test. It's like playing with fire though.

If I remember correctly, St Louis had a severe thunderstorm blow through with little warning during a game a few years back. I feel like I remember there were some injuries due to flying debris and severe lightning, but don't quote me on that. I know there was extensive damage to some of the vendor carts and outdoor tarps.

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If I remember correctly, St Louis had a severe thunderstorm blow through with little warning during a game a few years back. I feel like I remember there were some injuries due to flying debris and severe lightning, but don't quote me on that. I know there was extensive damage to some of the vendor carts and outdoor tarps.

On a somewhat related note... there was an instance in STL on June 28 this year with the St. Charles EF2. Mostly just a scare, but it does bring up a real problem.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/29/is-major-league-baseball-taking-storms-seriously-enough/

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One parameter I suppose you could take a look at would be 700mb temperatures. What would be more helpful though is a mid-level lapse rate map. Given that CoD is often under the gun when it comes to MCS events, it would be in their best interest to add lapse rate products to their model site. I'll email them and see if I can't get that to happen before the severe ramps up in a few days.

 

It's not going to happen and it's not in the works to be added. 

 

You can click a sounding then get the raw text output and do the lapse rates right there if need be, or just look at a sounding like most. Or the SPC mesoanalysis website 

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Who on earth knows where the frontal boundary will be after a few rounds of convection and possibly convection/cloud debris the day of but wow...the 18z GFS is putting out numbers I don't think I've seen here before (yeah the NAM has humungo off the charts CAPE if you click a sounding, cool) for this coming Monday, at least the LI. I can't remember a forecasted -16 LI before. After Sunday, the frontal boundary is progged in model land to slowly sink back south Monday afternoon across WI with a very explosive environment to its south. This run has SBCAPE over 6,000 j/kg, dew points in the mid-upper 70's and add to all that a 50kt mid-level jet max coming through. Not here to talk up a tornado threat, or even derecho...but just an environment conducive for big time atomic bomb thunderstorms. 

 

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Location still in question but Monday is really shaping up to be one of those meteorological video game number days.  Assuming we get a well-organized line, it's going to be capable of extreme damaging winds.

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It's not going to happen and it's not in the works to be added. 

 

You can click a sounding then get the raw text output and do the lapse rates right there if need be, or just look at a sounding like most. Or the SPC mesoanalysis website 

Yeah but tracking an EML plume by clicking on a bunch of soundings isn't really worth it, and I don't think anyone actually does that. Mesoanalysis is great but it doesn't forecast lapse rates. The only thing that does, that I'm aware of, is SREF. Even so, it's not a great model.

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Yeah but tracking an EML plume by clicking on a bunch of soundings isn't really worth it, and I don't think anyone actually does that. Mesoanalysis is great but it doesn't forecast lapse rates. The only thing that does, that I'm aware of, is SREF. Even so, it's not a great model.

 

 

Someone mentioned it earlier but I use 700 mb maps as a proxy.  You can get an idea from that and then click around to get forecast soundings to really visualize it.

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Someone mentioned it earlier but I use 700 mb maps as a proxy.  You can get an idea from that and then click around to get forecast soundings to really visualize it.

 

 

Yeah I've used 700mb temps for years and years to track the EML and I'm sure many people do the same. 

 

Alright thanks all

 

00z NAM backed off on the ridiculously extreme instability on Sunday... now it's only extreme instability. 

 

For Monday, it has some random showers popping up in Indiana around Noon, going into west Ohio by 18z. This delays the destabilization in the area, and west Ohio doesn't really destabilize (1500-2000 MUCAPE). Still looks like a decent squall.

 

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This run makes me feel really uneasy... but it's just one run at this point.

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00z NAM has a 998 mb surface low in the MN/IA area at 00z Tuesday.  Sub 1000 at this time of year is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Yeah Monday is the clear cut max potential day IMO.

 

You don't juxtapose 6,000 j/kg and 40-50kts of shear and not get anything. I can see storms firing in WI and tracking SE to SEE along the instability axis, maybe even turn hard south

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I work for the CoD meteorology program

Do you know of anyone I can contact who actually implements changes to the model processing? I've already sent an email so that may be enough. The addition would only take ~10 minutes to implement and it's not an expensive calculation. Just curious...what's the limiting factor? CPU time? Thanks
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Yeah Monday is the clear cut max potential day IMO.

 

You don't juxtapose 6,000 j/kg and 40-50kts of shear and not get anything. I can see storms firing in WI and tracking SE to SEE along the instability axis, maybe even turn hard south

Tonight's NAM would be a big stab to the potential. Let's hope GFS doesn't do the same thing.

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It's not going to happen and it's not in the works to be added. 

 

You can click a sounding then get the raw text output and do the lapse rates right there if need be, or just look at a sounding like most. Or the SPC mesoanalysis website 

That's too bad, a lapse rate map would be killer for the site.

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Can't recall seeing the theta-e maxed out (white) on the COD site at both the surface and 925mb over such an expansive area as shown late Monday.  I wonder if these crazy dews forecast by the models are a result of the very wet soils where these extreme dews are being modeled.  Widespread dews above 80 are pretty rare, as Hoosier pointed out earlier.  Usually you get a few readings near, or above 80 where moisture pools near a boundary, etc.  I guess if you're going to see something like what's being modeled then this is the year.  Widespread wet soils, and the corn crop is nearing it's peak evapotranspiration for the season.  

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That's too bad, a lapse rate map would be killer for the site.

 

I agree with Stebo on this one.  A good lapse rate map on the charts may help in determining weather the model is correct or not. Looking at low and mid level charts upstream and and downstream in terms of their placement of ridges and troughs may help a forecaster decided if the lapse rates are realistic, instead of just using the soundings.

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Well, here's the mic drop.  We've now breached the 10,000j/kg barrier.  NAM forecast sounding for Marshalltown Iowa late Monday.  Not too far west of Hawkeye.  Pure model porn, but still extremely impressive.

 

2mrfymt.jpg

 

 

And MLCAPE over 8000 lol

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GFS stopped loading for like 20 minutes at hour 48... finally, after refreshing every 10 seconds for the past 20 minutes (maybe a bit exaggerated), it comes back. There's a HUGE difference between hour 48 and 51. All the sudden the low's location is in line with the 00z NAM at hour 51. It's like someone went in and fixed the model.

 

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