homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Low probability of a wind report >65? Yeah I don't remotely buy that, especially if this is going to grow upscale into a MCS later this evening. Haha yes I was also very struck by that. Makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Low probability of a wind report >65? Yeah I don't remotely buy that, especially if this is going to grow upscale into a MCS later this evening. Could be basing some of that off of the HRRR which never really grows upscale at all... Which would in turn cause some uncertainty with that. But its kind of on an island since most CAM's show upscale growth into a strong forward propagating MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 In between Danville and Champaign?We are debating if east or north is the better play. The CU field appears more agitated along I-80 so we may go north. We are still sitting in Champaign because we have north and east highways available here and don't want to loose a play yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Concerned that the probs on this Tornado Watch are a little too low, but other than that, everything seems to be doing alright. Bet we see some rapid development here in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Current OBS are wild WRT to temps DPs... 85/78 at Clow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 88 on the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gotta love how everything (SPC decisions, etc) gets microanalyzed on days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 LOT AFD mentions possible strong storms tomorrow too locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 We are debating if east or north is the better play. The CU field appears more agitated along I-80 so we may go north. We are still sitting in Champaign because we have north and east highways available here and don't want to loose a play yet.We are going north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Rain popping up just north of DeKalb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Tower trying to go SE of RFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 All of the 170-190° wind obs in the eastern half of IL are pretty distressing. Didn't fully expect that, and if that Grundy/Will cell takes off, it's going to be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Still looks like a miss for the city proper but it will be a closer shave than I thought earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Pouring again...some wind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Tower trying to go SE of RFD Anddddd it's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 small blip of 8000 sbcape on spc mesopage not super uncommon this time of year but most of the time a nuclear cap is in place and/or weak shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 As impressive as the dewpoints are now, it wouldn't be surprising to see them creep up still in many areas over the course of the next few hours as the moist axis moves east and daytime mixing is lost. Certainly going to carry plenty of instability well into the evening hours in areas that don't get overturned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just started raining here... cell firing right over LSe... Scratch that..its pouring now. Not raining here now.. Ton of thunder off in the distance from the cell just north of here... KARX... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOREST AREA. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KTS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPRECELLS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 3000- 4000 J/KG. WE SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXIT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK...10 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING TORNADOES. HOWEVER IF WE CAN ESTABLISH A STRONG ENOUGH SUPERCELL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO JUST a constant rumble here right now. Pouring again...some wind.... ^^^These posts are why I love being under developing t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The MCS that formed in ND & MN last night is going to make it to the Atlantic Coast off of South Carolina before midnight... Impressive I noticed that as well, awesome. I haven't tracked one that went SE during its entire journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 cell over Will county has the look of a cold season storm when they get sheared apart (long and skinny look) from lack of surface instability with strong shear...may still be some CIN in that area and not utilizing its potential yet new rapid developing of CELL just west of Lasalle IL also the twins in eastern IA look like they are maturing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The environment over Illinois is absolutely insane for being in mid-July. As someone said before, this CAPE is uncommon for July but for it to be juxtaposed under so much shear is rare, I'm sure. This is the highest STP I've seen so close to home since 3/2/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Storm to the NW of DVN probably needs a warning for large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ARX... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI416 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON......DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0408 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N WEST SALEM 43.91N 91.08W07/13/2015 LA CROSSE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT 10FT TRAILER BLOWN OFF THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ^^^These posts are why I love being under developing t'storms. Its been about 5+ years of very boring severe wx around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Bullseye over central IL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ric Kearbey A source tells me that the Storm Prediction Center is about to do a conference call with the NWS in Lincoln. They're concerned about this "cap" breaking down creating that explosive severe thunderstorm scenario I mentioned earlier today. If the cap holds strong, we limit storms. If it does break, we get concerned. Please stay close this evening and I'll keep you updated. 14 · 21 mins Local MET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The south cell by DVN is severe warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Local MET http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1396.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Local MET That probably stems from the tornado watch. A conference call would've been conducted before it was issued. Otherwise, I'm not sure what else SPC would want to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Davenport needs to be on high alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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