cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Couple 80 degree dews in Illinois Untitled.png Pretty impressive to see Des Moines up to 96 behind that convergence boundary. Dews have dipped into the 60s there. May have a shot at 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 7000 Sbcape starting to show up in W IL on the Mesoscale Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Up 5 degrees in the last hour, 82/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 At 18z....holy shizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ^That CAPE gradient is nuts. Obviously a work in progress for eastern IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Got hit hard after this first round here in Noblesville. Lots of trees down and power out across the county. Won't take long to rebound though. I worry about the second round here. Even if we don't get the most severe, utility crews and first responders are going to be in for a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yikes, hell of a cap there. Definitely some outflow contamination in the lowest layer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 We are coming up on Champaign. First time I've been in Illinois other than layovers at ORD. We are going to sit here for a time as we are in the middle of the instability gradient and the remnant OFB is a little to our west. Think that convergence along the diffuse outflow boundary may be a nice trigger. With the instability gradient and OFB slowly moving E/NE think Champaign will be a good starting point since we don't want to go any farther west than we have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Got hit hard after this first round here in Noblesville. Lots of trees down and power out across the county. Won't take long to rebound though. I worry about the second round here. Even if we don't get the most severe, utility crews and first responders are going to be in for a long night. It's crazy how quick things are clearing up. HRRR and RAP both agree that Indiana and west Ohio will destabilize into 3000+ CAPE later. Curious to see what they do with the 20z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 FWIW 17Z HRRR runs a strong UDH track right by RFD between 22-23Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 86/77 here in Champaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Microburst composite is sky high... Also does a good job of showing where the current instability gradient is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Special DVN sounding is excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Special DVN sounding is excellent Looks less capped using the virtual temp method, which should apply in this very tropical air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Not a cloud in the sky here... IWX expected it to stay cloudy all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks less capped using the virtual temp method, which should apply in this very tropical air mass. Considering it's only 2PM, that's pretty good I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0151 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/FAR SE MN...W-CNTRL/CNTRL WICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 131851Z - 132015ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SOWITH A RESULTING SVR THREAT. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WINDS BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVRTHREAT.DISCUSSION...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ASDAYTIME HEATING PUSHES TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AMIDST MID 60 TOLOW 70 DEWPOINTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY GRADIENTWITH MLCAPE INCREASING FROM 1000 J PER KG IN THE NRN PORTION OF THEMD AREA TO OVER 2500 J PER KG NEAR THE MN/WI/IA BORDER INTERSECTION.RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER LSE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARYEXTENDING NWWD INTO CNTRL MN /EVIDENCED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE/...AWARM FRONT /DEMARCATED WELL BY THE 70 DEG ISODROSOTHERM/ ARCING SEWDFROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL WI...AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSSCNTRL IA. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASING CUFIELD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI WITH TSTMINITIATION EXPECT HERE SOON. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTEDFARTHER SE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES.MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 45 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ORGANIZEDTSTMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FORSUPERCELLS...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING A TORNADOOR TWO. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TEMPER THETORNADO THREAT SOMEWHAT. THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELYREQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 severe tstorm watch for counties immediately south and east of CMH until 8 pm is a bit of a headscratcher. If this is for the MCS, the leading edge will be crossing into WV in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Springfield is at 93/80 with a HI of 112, they might have capping issues there for holy crap that's hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That DVN sounding was taken with a sfc T/Td of 84/77. It's 88/79 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That DVN sounding was taken with a sfc T/Td of 84/77. It's 88/79 now. 91/80 at MLI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ugh, not again. Looks like things are popping already in C MN north of the TC. Can't take on any more water. Shouldn't be anywhere near as organized as last night, but anything that pops has potential to be svr. Still around 2000 J/kg and dews around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Illinois surface map from 19z. Several 80+ degree dew-points in the mix: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 85/76 in DKB. Some high clouds filtering in, but pretty much full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That DVN sounding was taken with a sfc T/Td of 84/77. It's 88/79 now.A couple more degrees on the T/Td and that cap will be irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Modified 18Z DVN sounding to represent current obs... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Illinois surface map from 19z. Several 80+ degree dew-points in the mix: Still some backed flow in eastern IL to the south of I-80. Don't know for how long though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 DVN reported an ob at 1903z of 89/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Still some backed flow in eastern IL to the south of I-80. Don't know for how long though. As others mentioned, a SW flow will do, as upper level winds are generally NW. Any areas that do hang onto some subtle backing may have an even greater localized threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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