homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 While the outlook didn't mention a potential upgrade to high risk, this line struck me 17 million in the moderate risk area. I think SPC's outlook overestimates the MCS's effect on the environment and the cloud cover. That MCS is a lot closer to Chicago than predicted at the time and at the current SE pace we should be LONG clear from clouds and convection by the time afternoon heating kicks in imo. But I think the morning update should be a lot more confident and we will really know whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think SPC's outlook overestimates the MCS's effect on the environment and the cloud cover. That MCS is a lot closer to Chicago than predicted at the time and at the current SE pace we should be LONG clear from clouds and convection by the time afternoon heating kicks in imo. But I think the morning update should be a lot more confident and we will really know whats going on. The MCS has moved a lot faster than any of the models expected. The next 24 hours are gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think SPC's outlook overestimates the MCS's effect on the environment and the cloud cover. That MCS is a lot closer to Chicago than predicted at the time and at the current SE pace we should be LONG clear from clouds and convection by the time afternoon heating kicks in imo. But I think the morning update should be a lot more confident and we will really know whats going on. I would tend to agree that the MCS should be out of the area pretty early. Then the question is whether there's any festering areas of convection behind it and how long it takes for the sun to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I would tend to agree that the MCS should be out of the area pretty early. Then the question is whether there's any festering areas of convection behind it and how long it takes for the sun to come out. MCV with that complex definitely has a strong easterly component of motion looking at the radar loop. Has a double WAA wing feeding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I would tend to agree that the MCS should be out of the area pretty early. Then the question is whether there's any festering areas of convection behind it and how long it takes for the sun to come out.This cloud cover isn't too extensive at all, its already trying to clear Minnesota with very little lingering convection. As Andyhb said, you can clearly see the western extent of the system really ripping east at around 40mph while going around 30 mph south (around 50 mph SE/ESE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Well, looks like the RAP will probably not be useful for low level temps/dews during the day. Looks too high on temps and too low on dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 This cloud cover isn't too extensive at all, its already trying to clear Minnesota with very little lingering convection. As Andyhb said, you can clearly see the western extent of the system really ripping east at around 40mph while going around 30 mph south (around 50 mph SE/ESE) That's nice and all, but I'm more interested in vis sat in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Well, looks like the RAP will probably not be useful for low level temps/dews during the day. Looks too high on temps and too low on dews. RAP generally over-mixes the boundary layer during the daytime. Usually a toss this far out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That's nice and all, but I'm more interested in vis sat in the morning.Ahh, fair enough. There could possibly be more convevtion backbuilding overnight but we'll just have to wait and see. No use trying to predict what the clouds and convection will do tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 RAP generally over-mixes the boundary layer during the daytime. Usually a toss this far out anyway. Indeed. You know it's pretty moist when it's overmixing and still showing widespread dews of 70-75+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm most likely going to be heading to central IL by mid-afternoon barring a significant surprise in the morning. We're going to be leaving from Columbus in the morning so it's possible we encounter whatever is left of the nocturnal MCS as we drive across IN. This is my first time really "chasing" (driving an hour or two to catch a storm close to home isn't quite the same) so I'm fairly excited. The MCS currently has a decent easterly component of motion and doesn't appear to be back building which will hopefully bode well for destabilization across IL during the afternoon. With the 500mb jet streak nosing in by 21z am hoping that initialization of the second round occurs in that general timeframe. Am also hoping the MCS doesn't start diving more south and perhaps limit the destabilization farther north/east and force us to target areas farther southwest. As of now that looks somewhat unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Is that line gonna hold together to here? Possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Classic looking wind structure heading for Milwaukee. Wonder if it will hold together at the diurnal minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Passing thru Albsny, WI, in Geen County now. VERY impressive. Solid lightening with winds bending my small (< 1in) trees nearly double. Wind-driven rain so visibility is down to about 100 yards or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Solid but pedestrian mcs arriving for the diurnal min. Should be able to capture a decent shelf. Initiation still looks to be just to my west and south later. (LOT agrees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like a couple little kinks headed towards NW Cook county area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like a couple little kinks headed towards NW Cook county area Looks like the most severe winds headed straight for the west burbs and west side of city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Great wind event in Kenosha. My street now blocked by large branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like a couple little kinks headed towards NW Cook county area Couple kinks too, one near Algonquin, one north of dekalb: not show much worth noting on velocity in terms of rotation however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Couple kinks too, one near Algonquin, one north of dekalb: not show much worth noting on velocity in terms of rotation however True....not seeing anything either Rockford gust to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like the most severe winds headed straight for the west burbs and west side of city proper Should be several wind reports and multiple power outages all across the north to central metro as this rocks through. Looks s bit tamer, wind wise, out my way but still should be solid garden variety morning storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Solid but pedestrian mcs arriving for the diurnal min. Should be able to capture a decent shelf. Initiation still looks to be just to my west and south later. (LOT agrees) Almost no wind when the line passed through here. I certainly shouldn't have been surprised, and I'm not really disappointed because all I wanted is some t'storm action, but still pretty funny how weakening MCS' are like clockwork around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Had a nice run before this thing came in. Got drenched the last half mile or so but worth it for the view of incoming shelf on the west edge of town. Winds kicked up quite a bit with initial gust front and it looked ugly, but otherwise just heavy rain with lightning mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 True....not seeing anything either Rockford gust to 66 Maybe some weak rotation near Malta, but again, not much.Edit: and it disappeared next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Warning now up to 70 mph....source spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Warning now up to 70 mph....source spotter Winds might be there, but radar returns look pretty weak except for the portion of the line that moved through Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just had a 58 mph gust in mby. Now heavy rain, lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Initiation still looks to be just to my west and south later. (LOT agrees) Re: LOT agrees - Are you getting that based on their AFD or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Please forgive grainy, through screen photo... But the wind attempted to send my hot tub cover across the yard. Looks like it may have broken the straps/buckles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM IA THISAFTERNOON ENDS UP BEING FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...THIS COULD KEEP HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT OUT OF FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST IL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA...AS PER CURRENT DEPICTION OF MODERATE AND ENHANCED RISK FROM CWA. it's a hedge but i like the idea line nicely visible now, gonne snap some crappy window pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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