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July 11-14 Severe Weather Event


Powerball

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you know south is the way to go

 

 

If anything they are still too generous in the north and east

 

 

Looking like a snooze fest for MBY but the corridor from southern MN SE through DVN and points south/east looks money in the bank for multiple high-end rounds. 

:deadhorse:

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Cell just popped NW of Montevideo in SW MN, with another one trying to get going south of there. Might be the start of things down there.

canadian and GFS hinted of a scenario where the main line came through the metro  mid-late evening then a 2nd line came later in the overnight. could we be seeing that develop?

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I'm glad Hoosier is in Griffith for LSRs and analysis.  I have family in Highland IN that are not weatherwise and usually discount my comments to them about a potentially upcoming serious situation such as what the Chicago metro is facing tomorrow.  Best I can do is tell them to watch Skilling closely tomorrow.

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:deadhorse:

 

 

Well, you got your answer.  lol

 

Alek's scenario is not impossible, but it would take extensive morning convection and lingering extensive clouds to make it a greater possibility.  The other thing is that it's unclear just how quickly things will grow upscale tomorrow evening and it's not inconceivable that convection could be more scattered/discrete in northern IL. 

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High wind warning issued for NE part of MPX. Anyone know what's causing this? A wake low?

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
835 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...SHORT FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING...

.HIGH WINDS WILL FOLLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNING
AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS...WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG BEHIND THE STORMS.

MNZ034>036-130400-
/O.NEW.KDLH.HW.W.0001.150713T0135Z-150713T0400Z/
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRAINERD...BAXTER...HILL CITY...AITKIN
835 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...ACROSS CROW WING AND AITKIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BRAINERD LAKES...AITKIN...GARRISON...MCGREGOR AND MILLE LACS
LAKE.

* WINDS...WINDS WILL GUST TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...MORE TREE DAMAGE...SIGNS COULD BLOW DOWN...LAWN
FURNITURE COULD BLOW AROUND.

 

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DP of 78, temperature of 92 on the 00Z OAX RAOB, with 700-500mb LL of 7.3C/km leading to 7100+J/KG of MUCAPE. Good lord. Capped with no convection for hundreds of miles... But this is the type of thermodynamic environment that we are likely to have discrete deep convection (supercells, and bows) in. Along with 50-60kts 0-6KM bulk shear. Sounds like a fun (or not so fun) day if things could stay supercellular for a bit especially with a moderate/strong LLJ in place.

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I'm glad Hoosier is in Griffith for LSRs and analysis.  I have family in Highland IN that are not weatherwise and usually discount my comments to them about a potentially upcoming serious situation such as what the Chicago metro is facing tomorrow.  Best I can do is tell them to watch Skilling closely tomorrow.

 

 

That's a problem.  Obviously a tricky balance between informing and hyping but what I usually tell people in situations like tomorrow is that it's one of the rare times that I am concerned about the weather and to pay attention. 

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What's the precip rates out by St. Cloud? Looks like a soaker

derived from the mpx radar, about 2"/hr sw of Little Falls. and LXL did get 1.47" within an hour according to their latest metar, with a RADAR estimate of 1.6". so the estimates are pretty close tonight.

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Outflows from the cells firing in SW MN starting to hit the line that is marching SE. Might see a rapid explosion that could extend the line south. Always interesting to see cells moving in near opposite directions.

will be interesting when the Granite Falls/Montevideo cell collides with the MCS somewhere between Willmar and Litchfield (assuming steady-speed rates).

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