A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looking like a snooze fest for MBY but the corridor from southern MN SE through DVN and points south/east looks money in the bank for multiple high-end rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looking like a snooze fest for MBY but the corridor from southern MN SE through DVN and points south/east looks money in the bank for multiple high-end rounds. lol what? Metro looks like/could be ground zero tomorrow afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What speed are those cells headed SE? I am wondering at what point this effects the outcome of atmospheric recovery tomorrow for Southern WI and Northern IL once the speed comes up, it'll probably go according to the model plans for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Damage from last night SE of Decatur Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 lol what? Metro looks like/could be ground zero tomorrow afternoon/evening Yeah I was going to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looking like a snooze fest for MBY but the corridor from southern MN SE through DVN and points south/east looks money in the bank for multiple high-end rounds. Keep deluding yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yeah I was going to say... Hahaha I was confused what he was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Maybe he's referring to tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Maybe he's referring to tonight? Nah he said South and East. Either way he is going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ALEK is trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looking like a snooze fest for MBY... Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 you know south is the way to go If anything they are still too generous in the north and east Looking like a snooze fest for MBY but the corridor from southern MN SE through DVN and points south/east looks money in the bank for multiple high-end rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cell just popped NW of Montevideo in SW MN, with another one trying to get going south of there. Might be the start of things down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like the MN storms are developing a good cold pool and increasing in forward speed. And with the additional cells developing to the south and west the line seems to be organizing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coreyback Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cell just popped NW of Montevideo in SW MN, with another one trying to get going south of there. Might be the start of things down there. That cell via KELO webcam in Watertown, SD. Looking forward to the timelapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cell just popped NW of Montevideo in SW MN, with another one trying to get going south of there. Might be the start of things down there. canadian and GFS hinted of a scenario where the main line came through the metro mid-late evening then a 2nd line came later in the overnight. could we be seeing that develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm glad Hoosier is in Griffith for LSRs and analysis. I have family in Highland IN that are not weatherwise and usually discount my comments to them about a potentially upcoming serious situation such as what the Chicago metro is facing tomorrow. Best I can do is tell them to watch Skilling closely tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Well, you got your answer. lol Alek's scenario is not impossible, but it would take extensive morning convection and lingering extensive clouds to make it a greater possibility. The other thing is that it's unclear just how quickly things will grow upscale tomorrow evening and it's not inconceivable that convection could be more scattered/discrete in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What's the precip rates out by St. Cloud? Looks like a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 High wind warning issued for NE part of MPX. Anyone know what's causing this? A wake low? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN835 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015...SHORT FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING....HIGH WINDS WILL FOLLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNINGAREAS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS...WINDS WILL BEVERY STRONG BEHIND THE STORMS.MNZ034>036-130400-/O.NEW.KDLH.HW.W.0001.150713T0135Z-150713T0400Z/CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRAINERD...BAXTER...HILL CITY...AITKIN835 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING.* LOCATION...ACROSS CROW WING AND AITKIN COUNTIES...INCLUDINGBRAINERD LAKES...AITKIN...GARRISON...MCGREGOR AND MILLE LACSLAKE.* WINDS...WINDS WILL GUST TO 70 MPH.* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.* IMPACTS...MORE TREE DAMAGE...SIGNS COULD BLOW DOWN...LAWNFURNITURE COULD BLOW AROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 DP of 78, temperature of 92 on the 00Z OAX RAOB, with 700-500mb LL of 7.3C/km leading to 7100+J/KG of MUCAPE. Good lord. Capped with no convection for hundreds of miles... But this is the type of thermodynamic environment that we are likely to have discrete deep convection (supercells, and bows) in. Along with 50-60kts 0-6KM bulk shear. Sounds like a fun (or not so fun) day if things could stay supercellular for a bit especially with a moderate/strong LLJ in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm glad Hoosier is in Griffith for LSRs and analysis. I have family in Highland IN that are not weatherwise and usually discount my comments to them about a potentially upcoming serious situation such as what the Chicago metro is facing tomorrow. Best I can do is tell them to watch Skilling closely tomorrow. That's a problem. Obviously a tricky balance between informing and hyping but what I usually tell people in situations like tomorrow is that it's one of the rare times that I am concerned about the weather and to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Up to 2 significant wind reports... new one is 81 MPH. 2 more until we satisfy one of the derecho 'requirements' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Outflows from the cells firing in SW MN starting to hit the line that is marching SE. Might see a rapid explosion that could extend the line south. Always interesting to see cells moving in near opposite directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 New NAM seems to want to kick stuff off by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 RPM for Monday morning from WGN Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What's the precip rates out by St. Cloud? Looks like a soaker derived from the mpx radar, about 2"/hr sw of Little Falls. and LXL did get 1.47" within an hour according to their latest metar, with a RADAR estimate of 1.6". so the estimates are pretty close tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Outflows from the cells firing in SW MN starting to hit the line that is marching SE. Might see a rapid explosion that could extend the line south. Always interesting to see cells moving in near opposite directions. will be interesting when the Granite Falls/Montevideo cell collides with the MCS somewhere between Willmar and Litchfield (assuming steady-speed rates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sauk Centre MN airport just got 69mph (60 kts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 New NAM seems to want to kick stuff off by 18z. Doesn't look good for SW OH at all. HRRR looks decent, but it can't even get hour 1 right so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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