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July 11-14 Severe Weather Event


Powerball

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Tornado watch up for southern and central MN with high risk severe wind probs

Sent from my GT-N8010

yep, pretty much all of southern/central MN except LaCrosse/LaCrescent and Winona. I'm thinking though they'll get a watch once things get roaring, but more likely severe thunderstorm variety for high gusts.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0406.html

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18z 4km NAM would be a nightmare scenario for the DVN cwa. Several sups blow up in eastern IA and blast across the heart of the cwa with full access to some of the highest instability. Low-levels winds remained backed as well. Large sups are shown blasting through the ILX cwa as well.

Was just checking that out. Some absolute bombs with tremendous updraft helicities.

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Add 70-80mph winds (or even slower winds) and you're looking at a whole lot of downed trees...

We also have quite a few dead trees in the neighborhood because of Emerald Ash Borers. We had 2-3 trees fall in the neighborhood earlier this year for a non-severe warned MCS. The winds weren't even that strong. I just don't feel too good about the potential tomorrow... I have a feeling it'll go just to my west. Still gonna be fun to track... and I'm glad we're finally in this kind of pattern. This is what I missed last year.

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Are helicities expected to increase as they move south? Currently the atmosphere doesn't seem to have much spin in that region

 

Even if you combine modest helicity with massive w gradients in the vertical (with this much cape, your updrafts are going to be very strong), you'll get spin.

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Was at a party 2 miles N of Decatur and watched this beast roll in. Thought I saw a broad rotating wall cloud, but much of my view was obscured by terrain and darkness. Lost power 4 times, and had prolific lighting. Still large areas of flooding in Decatur this morning.

Yes it was a monster! Bunch of damage between long creek and la place wouldn't be surprised if it was caused by a tornado

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

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MN supercells starting to edge se a bit into higher CAPE and better bulk shear.  As Bette Davis said, "Fasten your seatbelts. It's gonna be a bumpy night."

yep, and it looks like the outflow boundary ahead of the Alexandria cell is past Sauk Center, given the westerly winds in an otherwise Southerly flow.

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Most of the cams have a N-S linear line reaching E MN within the next few hours. Current radar trends not yet supporting that idea. Things certainly not materializing yet in SW MN or the Dakotas.

the n/s linear idea may not be in the cards, but the storms coming down from Alex-Brainerd to the twin cities is on the table, and viable, as was shown by other models leading up to this evening.

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the n/s linear idea may not be in the cards, but the storms coming down from Alex-Brainerd to the twin cities is on the table, and viable, as was shown by other models leading up to this evening.

Yep they look to be making a slight SE jog now. Interesting to watch that little cell develop over Morris and get sucked right into the main cell NE of there. Thing is a beast.

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