sauss06 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Heading up to Mount Washington this weekend and planning my drive. Does anybody have a good PA fall foliage report? Looking to take full advantage of seeing the colors while on my trip. I know I'll be seeing a lot up in NE, but I'll be sure to make a stop or two on my up if conditions look prime! well i hope you stop along the way for some Lobsah Rolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 On my way to the Hudson Valley, I passed through the southern Catskills. Some good color starting to pop! Good chance for frost and freezes everywhere should accelerate the colors. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 well i hope you stop along the way for some Lobsah Rolls I expect to eat one Lobstah roll while I'm up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Looks like the first sub-50 highs of the season are pending this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 On my way to the Hudson Valley, I passed through the southern Catskills. Some good color starting to pop! There was decent color in the Poconos as well up near Long Pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. 1.) The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory. It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag. Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking. 2.) We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best: 3.) The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October. 3.5) The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin. See you next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 If the PNA flips positive, which it should, things look much better IMO. Can't punt yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. 1.) The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory. It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag. Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking. WSI_ENSOState.PNG 2.) We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best: SAI_10142015.PNG 3.) The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October. nao.sprd2.png 3.5) The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin. See you next winter. 1) Actually, State College had just above climo snowfall during '97-'98, the strongest El Nino on record. For the second strongest El Nino, '82-'83, Harrisburg received 36" of snow (granted, mostly from the PD storm). Another strong El Nino occured during '65-'66, when 43" was recorded at Harrisburg. So I think the idea that strong El Ninos are detrimental to snowfall in central PA is not quite accurate. This El Nino also looks to fall short of '97-'98 in terms of SST anomalies. We will also have to see the how the atmosphere responds to the anomalous forcing from this feature; how the waves excited by this convection propagate and constructively/destructively interfere will be important. 2) We will have to see how snow cover gains progress through the rest of the month. I don't think its necessarily a bad thing to have lower snow cover relative to normal in Eurasia during the early portion of October, especially if followed by a rapid advancement in extent through the end of the month. I haven't checked myself but others on the forum have suggested that there may be significant snow cover gains in Eurasia during the latter half of the month. Of course, the SAI/SCE was a poor predictor of the AO state last winter. If I recall correctly, the SAI value was one of the highest recorded and therefore suggested a very negative AO for the winter. The mean winter AO ended up somewhat positive. Also, this recent paper (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054083/full) suggests that the SAI/AO relationship emerged relatively recently in the 1970s; before this period the correlation was weaker and even reversed sign (large SAI correlated with +AO). That gives me some pause as to whether the SAI is a reliable predictor of the winter AO or is merely a product of some more complex long-term cyclical relationship or related to climate change. 3) Why not? What does the NAO in October have to do with the NAO for DJFM? 3.5) I don't see much of a persistent feature in that region of the Pacific. It looks like the most negative height anomalies are forecast to be over the Aleutians over the next week or so. Even with that, I'm not sure there is much of a correlation between these features in October and the following winter. I'm not saying that it might not be a warm and relatively snowless winter, but I don't see any glaring signs that lead to that conclusion at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Should have clarified...my comments are for the LSV. You guys north of Rt. 22 are due for, and more than deserve, a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Looks like we have a chance to see our first snowflakes of the season here on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Looks like we have a chance to see our first snowflakes of the season here on Sunday. Wouldn't be surprised if the ridge tops along I-99 see some mangled snowflakes mix in either. Elk County et al could get a quick dusting according to the WPC snow graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Bet Jamie and 2001kx see some flakes this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Looking forward to some great fall weather this weekend. Even after winter was just cancelled... lol I'll worry about winter a month from now. Plenty of weather to enjoy in between (and time for subtle changes - good or bad)...I'm a realist but its way to early to call anything. Enjoy Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Bet Jamie and 2001kx see some flakes this weekend. yeah, seeing flakes mentioned up in Tioga as well. Even if it doesnt verify, its nice to see mentioned in a forecast should be some nice colors starting to show up too. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 FYI, CTP is making some changes for the thresholds of their winter weather products in the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV). Personally, I do not agree with this. It's amazing how poorly society handles even 2" of snow these days. When I was a kid, school systems wouldn't even blink at an event less than 6". Disclaimer: not bashing any NWS staff/office, DOT, OEM, etc. 000NOUS41 KCTP 161547PNSCTPPAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-171600-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015...SOME WINTER WATCH...WARNING...AND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARECHANGING IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NWS STATE COLLEGE PA COLLABORATED THE FOLLOWING CHANGES TO WINTERTHRESHOLDS WITH LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND NEIGHBORINGNWS OFFICES FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON TO BETTER SERVE THESEAREAS:1.) LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY (ADAMS - CUMBERLAND - DAUPHIN- FRANKLIN - LANCASTER - LEBANON - PERRY AND YORK COUNTIES):** 12 HOUR SNOW CRITERIA:- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REDUCED FROM 3 INCHES TO 2INCHES IN 12 HOURS.- WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REDUCED FROM 6 INCHES TO 5INCHES IN 12 HOURS.** 24 HOUR HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA:- WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REDUCED FROM 8 INCHES TO 7INCHES IN 24 HOURS.** WIND CHILL CRITERIA:- WIND CHILL ADVISORY RANGES REDUCED FROM -15F TO -24F TO-10F TO -24F.- WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA REMAINS UNCHANGED AT -25F ORCOLDER.** RATIONALE FOR CHANGES: SNOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE LOWERSUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WAS LOWERED TO BETTER SERVICE HIGHERPOPULATION CENTERS...MEDIA MARKETS AND COMMUTING AREAS. THE NEWTHRESHOLDS ARE BETTER ALIGNED WITH REAL OBSERVED IMPACTS WITHINTHE REGION (TRAFFIC AND SCHOOL CLOSURES ETC) AND PROVIDE SEAMLESSCRITERIA FOR MEDIA ALONG STATE BORDERS. THE NEW ALIGNMENTS ALSOIMPROVE FORECAST COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICESSERVING THE REGION.2.) NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (CAMERON - CLINTON (NORTHERN) - ELK -LYCOMING (NORTHERN) - MCKEAN - POTTER - SULLIVAN - TIOGA ANDWARREN COUNTIES):** ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA:- ICE STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION INCREASEDFROM 1/4 INCH TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE.- FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW RANGES FROM A TRACE TO0.49" OF ICE ACCUMULATION/ACCRETION.** RATIONALE FOR CHANGE: THE NEW CRITERIA BETTER DEFINES WARNINGLEVEL IMPACTS (E.G. NEW 1/2" OR GREATER ICE ACCUMULATION BETTERCORRELATES WITH LOSS OF LARGER TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES THANFORMER 1/4" OR GREATER CRITERIA).PLEASE ADDRESS QUESTIONS AND/OR COMMENTS TO PETER JUNG...NWS STATECOLLEGE PA WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...AT (814) 231-2423.NWS STATE COLLEGE PA$DEVOIR/WATSON/JUNG Note: Edited for content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. 1.) The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory. It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag. Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking. WSI_ENSOState.PNG 2.) We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best: SAI_10142015.PNG 3.) The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October. nao.sprd2.png 3.5) The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin. See you next winter. For your area punting is a good idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Blah. Thanks guys. I guess a side trip to the Adirondack might be in order. Leaving extremely early on Friday, so plenty of time to make it up. Can't get there before 7pm anyway. On the bright side, the upcoming pattern will be great for the foliage. I would bet northern PA will be turning rapidly starting this weekend. Of course, ridge looks to come back next week.....Leaves has turned quite a bit this week. Some places up in northern Pa. they should be about peak. Getting close just north of Wmpst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Getting some melting graupel falling at the moment. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Seeing the first mangled flakes of the season here this afternoon. I call it that over graupel because some of the pellets have 5 points that are pretty rounded off. Looks more like flakes falling into a marginal b-layer and partially melting over a rime ice coated flake. Either way, fairly early to see the frozen stuff return here just off the Alleghenies (~1200ft elev). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Seeing some flakes here now in State College! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Seeing some flakes here now in State College!Yup, saw some melting aggregates and rimed ice crystals here as well.Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Bet Jamie and 2001kx see some flakes this weekend. Yep seen some flakes here today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Snow up around Mansfield 15 North today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Light snow out there right now with mostly small and a few moderate sized aggregates. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I-80 between Clearfield and Dubois this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I-80 between Clearfield and Dubois this morning... I80&PA153.jpg Ahh you beat me to it, that's just up the hill from 2001kx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 https://twitter.com/AccuWxBeck/status/655738666623614977?lang=en KDUJ: KDUJ 181437Z AUTO 27012KT 1/4SM SN FG BKN005 BKN010 OVC015 01/M01 A3030 RMK AO2 SNB1354 P0000 T00111006 KPIT also reported a Trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 First of many 20s to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'm punting on Winter 2015-16. 1.) The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory. It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag. Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking. WSI_ENSOState.PNG 2.) We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best: SAI_10142015.PNG 3.) The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October. nao.sprd2.png 3.5) The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin. See you next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Many other well respected forecasters do Not agree with this at all. There are many computer models that show a great pattern setting up for this winter in the east . There are several El- Niño winters that have produced good snow in our region, with the most recent being 2010. This is Not time to punt ! I plan on us spiking the football in March after another great winter in Central PA ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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