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Central PA and the fringes - Summer into Fall


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The radar presentation looks the same now, at 11:30am, as it did when I woke up this morning at 6:00am. Five and a half hours and virtually no change. Big moisture coming in off the Atlantic into North Carolina and then getting shunted off to the northeast near the Blue Mountain.

 

:axe:

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The radar presentation looks the same now, at 11:30am, as it did when I woke up this morning at 6:00am. Five and a half hours and virtually no change. Big moisture coming in off the Atlantic into North Carolina and then getting shunted off to the northeast near the Blue Mountain.

 

:axe:

Even down here in DC I doubt these "big" rain totals will not materialize.  The radar look paltry and the once impressive QPF forecasts are long gone.  Sitting at in the low 50s with storm total of only 0.54" just NW of DC.  :lol:  Probably a preview of this winter

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Even down here in DC I doubt these "big" rain totals will not materialize.  The radar look paltry and the once impressive QPF forecasts are long gone.  Sitting at in the low 50s with storm total of only 0.54" just NW of DC.   :lol:  Probably a preview of this winter

 

Wow...I would have thought you got more than just 0.54" since it "appeared" to be raining most of the morning down there. It's unbelievable from what we went to model-wise a few days ago to what's actually happening now.

 

Preview of this winter indeed...lol!

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Some lessons learned from Joaquin:

 

1.)  Never discount the EURO, especially is the majority of the ensembles support the Operational.

2.)  Late season tropical cyclones are incredibly complex to forecast and this uncertainty must be communicated by public safety officials and meteorologists.

3.)  Social media moves fast.  Media-orologists with questionable credentials will spread the worst case scenario faster than sound science.  NWS and locals OEMs must work in tandem to quell the false information before it gets out of hand.

4.)  Adding extra recon flights and increasing the number of balloon launches is vital to improve model consensus during these complex upper air patterns.

5.)  QPF forecasts are inherently difficult,  Re-analysis of past land falling tropical cyclones along the east coast show that heavy rainfall typically does not occur over a large geographic area; it is usually a narrow stripe.  Agnes in '72 was contained to the Susquehanna Watershed, Floyd in '98 was contained to the Delaware Watershed.  Major rainfall from this event was confined to only South Carolina.

6.)  Speaking as a weather weenie this motto remains true, "When in doubt, expect a bust."

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Fall days like this get me very excited for winter!

I am also starting to look forward to winter weather. These daytime temps in the 40's with a Nor'easter off the coast, along that awesome radar yesterday really turned the page of the seasons for me. I look forward to tracking them all here on this board with everyone again!

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Some lessons learned from Joaquin:

 

1.)  Never discount the EURO, especially is the majority of the ensembles support the Operational.

2.)  Late season tropical cyclones are incredibly complex to forecast and this uncertainty must be communicated by public safety officials and meteorologists.

3.)  Social media moves fast.  Media-orologists with questionable credentials will spread the worst case scenario faster than sound science.  NWS and locals OEMs must work in tandem to quell the false information before it gets out of hand.

4.)  Adding extra recon flights and increasing the number of balloon launches is vital to improve model consensus during these complex upper air patterns.

5.)  QPF forecasts are inherently difficult,  Re-analysis of past land falling tropical cyclones along the east coast show that heavy rainfall typically does not occur over a large geographic area; it is usually a narrow stripe.  Agnes in '72 was contained to the Susquehanna Watershed, Floyd in '98 was contained to the Delaware Watershed.  Major rainfall from this event was confined to only South Carolina.

6.)  Speaking as a weather weenie this motto remains true, "When in doubt, expect a bust."

The SC rains aren't from J though, right? It's like a water hose busted and no one is moving it away down there.
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I'm freezing; I turned on my heat Wednesday lol.

 

 

I turned ours on last night.

 

 

Yuk. This is only the first of it and I'm depressed. I love sunshine and warm temps. I want summer back...stat!

Still going without heat here...being in one half of a house helps, the neighbors definitely had theirs on last night.  I thought we'd be cooler this morning but we fogged out at 46° and hovered there all night.  Looks like a nice stretch coming up, back to sunny skies.

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I thought we'd be cooler this morning but we fogged out at 46° and hovered there all night.  Looks like a nice stretch coming up, back to sunny skies.

 

We got down to 41 here, and Hazleton, just north of me dipped into the upper 30's, but it was crystal clear here with no clouds or fog.

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In two weeks my wife and I want to go fall foliage hunting (next weekend we're in Texas where it'll be 90 degrees, ugh). 

 

Any recommendations for pretty scenic drives/overlooks/views in the southern tier of PA or even the northern MD area? By that weekend (Oct 24-25) the Grand Canyon area and even Lock Haven area will likely be past peak. Nothing more than 2 or so hours from Harrisburg really but we're open to any suggestions. 

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