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July Obs Thread 2015


mackerel_sky

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Was at the Dr office in Smithfield when the rain started. Got home to 1.47" in the gauge - in about 55 minutes. It's not much fun getting a disabled person out of a wheelchair and into the car in a Noah-type downpour! :D Water was gushing down the streets in town, and the Neuse was already running fast. Interestingly, no thunder, lightning, or wind that I'm aware of.

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Same storm motions as the other day.  I doubt I see anything much out of today.  Wouldn't be surprised if localized areas did well though.  The flow is terrible for mby.  It would be nice to get some moisture transport out of the gulf for once this summer.

This flow is just plain terrible. Its amazing how eastern NC does so well no matter what weather pattern sets up.

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Pops have been bumped to 80% here this evening.  Things better start expanding in a hurry.  What is on the radar is going to slide south of me, just like the other day in this same ######## flow.

 

Also have to love how everything goes around the upstate in this flow.  The storms basically follow the border of SC around the upstate and then reform around the Charlotte area.

 

Edit:  Now what was in the upstate is falling apart lol.  80% chance of storms this evening and about to be nothing but a couple showers in the upstate.

 

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Pops have been bumped to 80% here this evening.  Things better start expanding in a hurry.  What is on the radar is going to slide south of me, just like the other day in this same ######## flow.

 

Also have to love how everything goes around the upstate in this flow.  The storms basically follow the border of SC around the upstate and then reform around the Charlotte area.

 

Edit:  Now what was in the upstate is falling apart lol.  80% chance of storms this evening and about to be nothing but a couple showers in the upstate.

Seems every state in the southeast has done well today, except SC. WHY??????  You would think with all the heat and humidity today that storms would have formed by now. What is sitting over SC to prevent storm formation? After today, storm chances disappear for a while.  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:

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Pops have been bumped to 80% here this evening.  Things better start expanding in a hurry.  What is on the radar is going to slide south of me, just like the other day in this same ######## flow.

 

Also have to love how everything goes around the upstate in this flow.  The storms basically follow the border of SC around the upstate and then reform around the Charlotte area.

 

Edit:  Now what was in the upstate is falling apart lol.  80% chance of storms this evening and about to be nothing but a couple showers in the upstate.

Yep our NWS needs to be able to figure out that upstate SC does not usually do well with west to NW flow. Their 70-80 % pops are fine in NC though. And by the way they have been busting on temps lately too.

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Seems every state in the southeast has done well today, except SC. WHY??????  You would think with all the heat and humidity today that storms would have formed by now. What is sitting over SC to prevent storm formation? After today, storm chances disappear for a while.  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:

 

The mountains....downsloping.

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Yep our NWS needs to be able to figure out that upstate SC does not usually do well with west to NW flow. Their 70-80 % pops are fine in NC though. And by the way they have been busting on temps lately too.

Seems the NW flow is killing chances in the majority of the state, not just upstate

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It probably varies with the trajectory of the flow on who gets screwed the most.  Charlotte is far enough east to not have the worst effects of it like the northern part of the upstate.

What i dont get is the Columbia area is usually far enough away like Charlotte, but nearly the whole state is devoid of storms today.

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I'm actually somewhat hopeful for some storms later tonight.  The HRRR has 50-100 mile swath of storms that form and drop south.  We have done very well with storms that drop south.  It almost looks like an inverted trough forms in the lee and moves mostly south but slightly west as well.  Not sure if this is the case or not, but maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in.

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I'm actually somewhat hopeful for some storms later tonight.  The HRRR has 50-100 mile swath of storms that form and drop south.  We have done very well with storms that drop south.  It almost looks like an inverted trough forms in the lee and moves mostly south but slightly west as well.  Not sure if this is the case or not, but maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in.

I sure hope thats the case. Radar looks like garbage right now.

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Huge surprise that KSPA is getting rain and I'm getting nada.  They are always the winners in Spartanburg in this flow.  Just the other day they got almost 2" of rain while I had 0.02".

 

Radar looking reaalllllyyyy impressive right now in the upstate.  I guess I can only count on having one week of rain every 1.5-2 months this year.

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