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July Obs Thread 2015


mackerel_sky

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Just look at that convection diving south now.  Eastern upstate is going to be bone dry by this time next week.  People's zoysia lawns haven't ever really had chance to green up nicely since they woke up.  Neighbors lawn has been brown prob 75% of the growing period so far.

 

Current Conditions:  Sprinkles.  Having a hard time accumulating on the pavement though since it is so light. lol

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I'll say one thing for these storms even though they are small in area. They are really laying down the rain.  I just had a very quick .66" with the rain rate above 6" per hour.  Now just as quickly as it arrived the sky is brightening and the sun is about to reappear.

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Storms are done until tomorrow afternoon for NC west of I-77 and upstate SC north of an Anderson Union line. Maybe a little light rain in spots is it.

 

I am going to bet you are wrong for at least the mountains.  I think we see another line of showers move through my area late tonight/early am tomorrow.  Yeah they are going to die due to this crazy new phenomenon called downsloping but its the Jonesville black hole so what are you gonna do other than move..

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My point and click:

 

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
 
What am I missing here?  There is nothing on the radar or models to lead me to believe this will come anywhere close to happening.
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My point and click:

 

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
 
What am I missing here?  There is nothing on the radar or models to lead me to believe this will come anywhere close to happening.

 

Seems the storms hit farther south and east than originally predicted. from looking at the news and the outlook on NOAA, that the western third of the state going west through GA and AL was gonna get all the storms today, kinda like yesterday.

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Storms are done until tomorrow afternoon for NC west of I-77 and upstate SC north of an Anderson Union line. Maybe a little light rain in spots is it.

 

Raining at my house this morning...  I think you should stick to forecasting for the 5 mile area around your house.  

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You can already see where the rain will go today based on the radar. It's to the south again. Most of NC and northern SC will have scattered storms at best.

Just like no one west of 77 was supposed to get rain until this afternoon? Your two forecasts that are 15 hrs apart contradict eachother. I am sorry if you feel that I am picking on you, but stop putting out statement after statement that turns out to be wrong. You can clearly see showers building over N GA that will bring more than scattered showers to parts of SC. I mean last Friday night you said it was clearly safe to drop the slight risk for Saturday, yet we had 3 tornados in NC. It amazes me that you can be 100% incorrect and still post the same crap day after day. If you were on TV forecasting like that, people would be giving you so much hell on social media.
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