SharonA Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 93F and HI was 113 according to the WU display my spouse left up on his computer ... I was doing some outside work and while it was unpleasant, it wasn't *horribly* so. It didn't trigger my "my GODS people VOLUNTARILY live here?" reaction even when I noticed it'd bumped to 95F. But still not nice. Chugging so much water I could float away ... or at least have an excuse for frequent potty breaks aka Get Back Inside With The A/C For the ten minutes up until this very sentence, thunder rumbles have been nearly constant as a cell moved towards us ... it's now almost shut up completely even though the cell's leading edge is only a couple of miles away. Looks to be weakening, too. I will not complain (too loudly) if all we get is some wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 GSP tonight... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 740 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY BOOSTED OVER THE MTNS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...BUT THE LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY STEADILY DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG PERSIST...AND BETTER DCAPE OVER THE SE HALF WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY CELLS THAT MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE MTNS. ANTICIPATE THE MTN ACTIVITY TO TRANSFORM IN A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MTNS AND LOW TO MID 70S PIEDMONT.TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY/NE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLIER IN THE DAY...PERHAPS BEFORE WE GET ANY SUBSTANTIAL HEATING. THAT TIMING WOULD CARRY THE BEST MID/UPPER SUPPORT TO THE EAST IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME...BUT A BOUNDARY WOULD BE LEFT TO LAY OUT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS ONLY DEVELOPS NEW CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE MTNS...WHICH SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE NAM LOOKS BETTER AND IS FAVORED...SO THE FCST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A CHANCE ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA...ALBEIT HIGHEST TOWARD THE TN BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AGAIN...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Those storms have come together nicely in Pickens County. Still doubt they make it here in tact, but there's always a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Severe t storm warning for Greenville. Going to be close with no sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Severe t storm warning for Greenville. Going to be close with no sun. Large swath for the warning. I'm just a couple miles outside the warning box, but it is still a good 30-40 miles from me. Looks to be falling apart now as soon as it was warned. 2 outflow boundaries racing towards Spartanburg. One from the north, one from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 810 PM MONDAY... A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL THREATEN KGSO AND KINT THROUGH 03Z...IN WHICH TIME A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND 20-30KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME..INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KRDU OR KRWI/KFAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS THAT HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Collapsed on top of me. Lots of wind and cooled it down to 70 and very nice. No rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 Swing and a miss! Guess I shouldn't expect rain twice in one week, silly me! The heat wave seems muted now, 97 tomorrow and basically , lower 90s the rest of the week and end of the month and start of next, looks slightly better for rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 If that convection keeps dropping south along the outflow boundary, I may have a shot at something. Edit: Meh looks like it's not going to drop south enough. Guess my storm streak will end at 2 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Currently 83f/76.6f at 10:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Currently 83f/76.6f at 10:15. Yeah pretty crappy stuff, maybe some rain cooled air will get to ya tonight, tomorrow looks like a lot better coverage storm wise.....then we get temps back to normal for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 81 with a 77 DP and a heat index of 88 at 1:30 in the morning......lets hope that 40% chance for showers holds up for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 I picked up 0.30 inch of rainfall from three small storms yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 74.7 with a DP of 70. That is the beginning of a sticky day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 74.7 with a DP of 70. That is the beginning of a sticky day. Try 82 with a 79 DP the heat index was 91 at 8:15 in the morning here....hope the cap breaks early, with that "front" moving in it could be a interesting day....maybe more organized with the severe than the SPC has us down for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 RAH doesn't sound as confident with their mid-morning update. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND LOOKS TO BE LIMITED/CONFINED TO LOWER-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING COVERAGE AS WELL. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO RESIDEACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 It's gettin' hot in here.... (there is a song there) 86.7 with DP's of 76 and heat index is 96. Did I move to Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 90/75/101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Now they've dropped any chance of afternoon showers/storms completely ... 40% chance tonight before 3:00AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 91.4°/73° HI of 100°. 40% pops today, although models aren't showing anything that impressive or organized around the upstate. It seems like the flow we've seen the last 2 days isn't nearly as conducive as the flow from a few days ago. Although, we did have some good timing with those shortwaves a few days ago. This one is moving through too early. sbcape: 2500 mucape: 2000-3000 dcape: 800-900 lift: -6 pwats: 1.9 Parameters look pretty good if we can get something to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 93/77/107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 Hot! Storms to my SW moving SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 95°/72° HI of 103°. Lift has increased some this afternoon and PWATS are up to 2. There's a few storms around the upstate this afternoon, but none really near mby. One cell was heading in my general direction, but has since dissipated. Storms south of Asheville look like they won't drop south quickly enough to impact mby. Although, they look like they are dropping more south than other storms on radar, there is too much west to east flow for them to make it here I think. Edit: Storm now severe and has made its way to the border. Likely going to be too far south for impact unless it builds further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 SVR developing right overhead and most of the county is inside the polygon. The clouds moving into the updraft really do look like they're heading up into a vacuum cleaner tube. No real rotation. The initial outflow blast was impressive. I was running errands and it looked like someone just lost a load of twigs, leaves, petals, and other small vegetative bits all over the road. Waiting to see if if any of it actually lands on the ground here, or if it goes and pounds someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Some strengthening taking place on the western edge of the severe storm. Extrapolating out the warning box I would be on the western edge if it continues on its currently trajectory. I think this could end up being one of those frustrating storms that misses me by just a couple miles. Hope it doesn't screw up my chances for something later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 *Grump* Not a drop. The churning morass of dark clouds just fell apart. At least we got some nice cool relief out of it. And I have some photos of the coolest cloud structure. Just 1 mile away the wind damage is fairly noticeable, and 5 miles (by air) one of my errand stops was deluged moments after I headed home. Yesterday was somewhat similar: a rumbling mass of thunder headed our way (not SVR), that died a couple of miles away - didn't get a drop then, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Well, things may work out after all. A piece of convection detached from the larger cluster moving southeast. Now a cell has popped up about a mile to my nw along with another cluster forming in nw Spartanburg County. Suspect that one may have a warning attached to it soon. Edit: Warning just issued for NW Spartanburg County. That cell nearest mby managed to skip over me giving me only a trace. I'm pinning my hopes on those cells in NW Spartanburg and NE Greenville. It's cooled down to 81.4° now. Hope that outflow boundary coming through hasn't screwed up my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 This thing is taking its sweet old time getting here. Another cell popped up less than a mile south of me. I get the feeling this storm is going to dance all around me and all I end up getting is traced. Hope this isn't the start of another storm drought. Edit: Alright, finally some movement southward. Just hope it isn't too much. If we manage to miss all this, I'm not going to be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Was 97F/75F when I left Tallahassee 30 minutes ago. I'll be glad to get back to NNE Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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