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July Obs Thread 2015


mackerel_sky

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Had .37" this morning brings me to 3.04" for the month....not really feeling the MCS making it here looks to finally be running out of steam....hard to believe it was started with a cluster of storms in North Dakota yesterday.

This seriously traveled from North Dakota to the Carolinas?  :stun:

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I've picked up about a quarter inch of much-needed rainfall this morning with the first round of showers from the decaying MCS.  The second round is about to roll through now.  I see there's also another chance at rainfall tonight.

 

I only picked up 0.06 inch of rainfall from the MCS last evening, so this morning's rainfall is most welcome.

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It's raining again!  Two days in a row with measurable rainfall.  WTH is going on here?  Too bad the piddly rain this morning is going to be at the expense of the good storms this afternoon/evening.  At this rate it will be sunny by 2 or 3.

 

sbcape: 300

mucape: 1000

dcape: 800-900

lift: -3

0-6 shear: 30 kts

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It's not raining here! Storms look to be on the wane! Just another day in Jonesville and Waycross

 

That may be a good thing.  We want this thing to clear off as soon as possible if we have any kind of chance with severe storms later.

 

Also, just read the latest forecast discussion and GSP is thinking the MCS will prob come around midnight with a few discrete cells out ahead of it.  The more west you are, the better.

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This is the first day in the last few weeks that I won't have to run the sprinkler or water plants.  Thank God because the water bill is going to be horrific.  I'm guessing it will be close to $400.  At that rate, I might as well have a pool.

 

HRRR hasn't updated in quite a while, but the latest run I saw had the MCS coming in from a more western direction instead of how they have come in the last couple times.  Don't know if that is bad or good, but there will be some differences I'm sure.

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That western part of the MCS is starting to look more potent as it gets into the more favorable environment.  NE GA and the western part of the upstate will prob get some good storms/rain out of it.  The eastern edge isn't really advancing at all in Spartanburg, just getting chewed up in the relatively stable air.  Ready for this to get out of the way so the sun can come out!

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July CAD!!! I'll take it as long as it wants to hang around in preparation of the potential heat wave!

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE EAST COAST...THE SCENARIO WILL BE REMINISCENT OF COLD AIR DAMMING WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE OCEAN DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD AND POTENTIALLY POINTS FURTHER EAST. AS A RESULT...HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE WEST WITH UPPER 80S TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
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July CAD!!! I'll take it as long as it wants to hang around in preparation of the potential heat wave!

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE EAST COAST...THE SCENARIO WILL BE REMINISCENT OF COLD AIR DAMMING WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OFF OF THE OCEAN DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD AND POTENTIALLY POINTS FURTHER EAST. AS A RESULT...HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE WEST WITH UPPER 80S TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING.

It can't be. Everyone on here is saying 100s.  :)

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