Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

There is always so much concentration on snow...but obviously temps are just as if not more important to discern any trends.

 

Here is Detroit's temperature data for all El Ninos since the 1870s. Warmer than normal is in red, colder in blue, and temps that were +/- 0.5F of normal are in black.

 

AVERAGE TEMPS

SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2

 

Ironically...the most discernable trend of ANY month in ANY strength Nino is a cooler than normal September during strong Ninos. Yet our dominant cool pattern this year has let up for a September thats on track to be warmer than normal

 

 

STRONG EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4

1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3

1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2

1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3

1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9

1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6

1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6

1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8

1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2

1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4

2009-10 -- 66.0 -- 50.0 -- 45.3 -- 29.3 -- 25.1 -- 27.8 -- 42.4 -- 52.4

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1911-12 -- 64.2 -- 50.9 -- 35.9 -- 33.9 -- 13.1 -- 18.3 -- 26.4 -- 46.2

1914-15 -- 62.8 -- 56.6 -- 39.7 -- 23.8 -- 23.4 -- 29.9 -- 31.9 -- 52.2

1918-19 -- 57.4 -- 55.5 -- 42.3 -- 36.3 -- 31.0 -- 29.4 -- 36.3 -- 45.9

1925-26 -- 66.1 -- 44.5 -- 38.1 -- 26.9 -- 25.4 -- 25.8 -- 29.0 -- 40.9

1930-31 -- 66.3 -- 51.6 -- 42.0 -- 29.6 -- 28.4 -- 32.8 -- 34.1 -- 48.6

1941-42 -- 67.5 -- 55.2 -- 43.0 -- 35.5 -- 25.8 -- 22.7 -- 38.5 -- 52.9

1965-66 -- 66.2 -- 51.2 -- 42.6 -- 35.9 -- 21.4 -- 28.3 -- 38.3 -- 44.4

1968-69 -- 65.5 -- 53.4 -- 41.0 -- 28.1 -- 23.1 -- 28.3 -- 33.4 -- 49.4

1986-87 -- 65.9 -- 52.6 -- 37.3 -- 31.3 -- 26.1 -- 29.6 -- 39.7 -- 50.8

1994-95 -- 66.2 -- 53.7 -- 45.5 -- 35.4 -- 28.3 -- 24.9 -- 39.1 -- 45.6

2002-03 -- 68.9 -- 50.0 -- 39.2 -- 28.7 -- 20.5 -- 23.1 -- 35.6 -- 48.4

2006-07 -- 62.0 -- 49.7 -- 42.6 -- 37.4 -- 29.6 -- 19.3 -- 40.1 -- 47.7

 

WEAK EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1904-05 -- 63.7 -- 50.5 -- 40.1 -- 25.8 -- 20.3 -- 17.9 -- 37.5 -- 44.4

1905-06 -- 65.3 -- 52.1 -- 37.5 -- 31.9 -- 33.6 -- 25.6 -- 28.2 -- 49.2

1923-24 -- 64.0 -- 51.8 -- 40.4 -- 37.7 -- 21.8 -- 25.5 -- 33.7 -- 46.0

1939-40 -- 65.9 -- 52.9 -- 38.9 -- 33.5 -- 19.0 -- 26.7 -- 28.6 -- 42.8

1951-52 -- 62.5 -- 55.4 -- 34.6 -- 28.4 -- 29.3 -- 29.3 -- 34.3 -- 49.5

1953-54 -- 64.7 -- 56.8 -- 44.5 -- 33.6 -- 26.0 -- 33.5 -- 33.5 -- 50.1

1963-64 -- 63.1 -- 62.7 -- 46.0 -- 23.8 -- 30.4 -- 28.9 -- 36.1 -- 49.3

1969-70 -- 64.8 -- 51.4 -- 37.9 -- 26.4 -- 16.6 -- 24.4 -- 32.8 -- 49.3

1976-77 -- 62.1 -- 47.3 -- 33.5 -- 21.5 -- 12.8 -- 25.2 -- 41.4 -- 52.5

1977-78 -- 65.0 -- 47.9 -- 40.5 -- 25.5 -- 19.5 -- 16.3 -- 30.0 -- 45.5

2004-05 -- 67.4 -- 53.3 -- 43.0 -- 29.7 -- 24.1 -- 28.4 -- 33.2 -- 50.7

Some Detroit temp data for Ninos.

 

This September is clearly going to be a warm September. Not only a surprise in a cool year, but it has literally never before happened in the small sample size that we have that is the strong Nino. The only warm Sept in a borderline strong Nino was 2009, however I was informed that has been officially classified as mod. In that case, there has NOT been a warmer than normal September in the 10 strong Nino events on record since 1877. 

 

Warm Septembers are more common in moderate Ninos however.

 

Even though there have been 0 warm Septembers in the 10 strong Ninos on record, in the 34 El Nino years of any strength (since 1877), there HAVE been 13 warm Septembers. Those 13 warm Septembers paved the way for a very even split of winters. 5 winters were cold, 5 winters were mild, and 3 were near normal.

 

If we are just talking a very warm September (nino or not), of the top 20 warmest Septembers on record, 10 of the following winters were colder than normal, 4 were near normal, and 6 were warmer than normal.

 

 

In all the years I concentrated on snow data/patterns during Ninos, this is the first year I concentrated on temps. I was shocked to find some of the results, especially how once you take out the infamous winters of 1982-83 & 1997-98, strong Nino does not scream warm winter at all.

 

Also of interest is how frequently in an El Nino (of any strength) we would see one unusually warm month and one unusually cold month in met winter. In several of the warm winters there was still a very cold month, and in several of the cold winters that was a very mild month. Often times it was Dec that was warm & Feb that was cold, but by no means is that a sure thing.

 

STRONG EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

2 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

 

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

4 colder than normal Winters

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

3 warmer than normal Fall

5 near normal Falls

5 colder than normal Falls

 

6 warmer than normal Winters

2 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

WEAK EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

3 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

 

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

ALL EL NINOS SINCE 1877

7 warmer than normal Fall

8 near normal Falls

19 colder than normal Falls

 

12 warmer than normal Winters

8 near normal Winters

14 colder than normal Winters

[Powerball]

Warm winter with a 20 incher thrown in would be fine.

 

Works for me.

 

But obviously I'd be ok with a warm winter without any decent snowstorms (especially since I got what I wanted last seasons), as long as it's not excessively cloudy.

[michsnowfreak]

Works for me.

But obviously I'd be ok with a warm winter without any decent snowstorms (especially since I got what I wanted last seasons), as long as it's not excessively cloudy.

I want the same thing every year. I give no free passes

I'm sure you know this, but mild winters are often even cloudier than normal. Our sunniest winters are our bitter coldest.

[buckeye]

Works for me.

 

But obviously I'd be ok with a warm winter without any decent snowstorms (especially since I got what I wanted last seasons), as long as it's not excessively cloudy.

 

c'mon, who do you think you're talking to here?    This is like saying, "I got laid last month, I'm good without any this month".   Uh, yea right.

[IWXwx]

c'mon, who do you think you're talking to here?    This is like saying, "I got laid last month, I'm good without any this month".   Uh, yea right.

 

Lol. Nice analogy. Definitely bump troll material.

[Powerball]

c'mon, who do you think you're talking to here?    This is like saying, "I got laid last month, I'm good without any this month".   Uh, yea right.

 

In all seriousness, we've had back-to-back winters with extreme cold / record snowfall. 

 

So I wouldn't mind the break, especially from the extreme cold. I can also do without a ton of nuisance snowfalls.

[Jonger]

I'd be fine with a 25F DJF. The worst 3 winters locally have been 31F. 11-12, 82-83 and 97-98.

13-14 was near 17F.

[Jonger]

Some Detroit temp data for Ninos.

This September is clearly going to be a warm September. Not only a surprise in a cool year, but it has literally never before happened in the small sample size that we have that is the strong Nino. The only warm Sept in a borderline strong Nino was 2009, however I was informed that has been officially classified as mod. In that case, there has NOT been a warmer than normal September in the 10 strong Nino events on record since 1877.

Warm Septembers are more common in moderate Ninos however.

Even though there have been 0 warm Septembers in the 10 strong Ninos on record, in the 34 El Nino years of any strength (since 1877), there HAVE been 13 warm Septembers. Those 13 warm Septembers paved the way for a very even split of winters. 5 winters were cold, 5 winters were mild, and 3 were near normal.

If we are just talking a very warm September (nino or not), of the top 20 warmest Septembers on record, 10 of the following winters were colder than normal, 4 were near normal, and 6 were warmer than normal.

In all the years I concentrated on snow data/patterns during Ninos, this is the first year I concentrated on temps. I was shocked to find some of the results, especially how once you take out the infamous winters of 1982-83 & 1997-98, strong Nino does not scream warm winter at all.

Also of interest is how frequently in an El Nino (of any strength) we would see one unusually warm month and one unusually cold month in met winter. In several of the warm winters there was still a very cold month, and in several of the cold winters that was a very mild month. Often times it was Dec that was warm & Feb that was cold, but by no means is that a sure thing.

STRONG EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

2 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

4 colder than normal Winters

MODERATE EL NINOS

3 warmer than normal Fall

5 near normal Falls

5 colder than normal Falls

6 warmer than normal Winters

2 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

WEAK EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

3 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

ALL EL NINOS SINCE 1877

7 warmer than normal Fall

8 near normal Falls

19 colder than normal Falls

12 warmer than normal Winters

8 near normal Winters

14 colder than normal Winters

Hmm. My faith in ENSO has definitely taken a hit these last few years. 82-83 and 97-98 might be tainting our views a tad.

[csnavywx]

Bit of a difference between a Nino that peaks at 1.5-1.6C and is focused closer to the dateline and one that peaks over 2.0C and is much closer to S. America.

[slow poke]

Some Detroit temp data for Ninos.

 

This September is clearly going to be a warm September. Not only a surprise in a cool year, but it has literally never before happened in the small sample size that we have that is the strong Nino. The only warm Sept in a borderline strong Nino was 2009, however I was informed that has been officially classified as mod. In that case, there has NOT been a warmer than normal September in the 10 strong Nino events on record since 1877. 

 

Warm Septembers are more common in moderate Ninos however.

 

Even though there have been 0 warm Septembers in the 10 strong Ninos on record, in the 34 El Nino years of any strength (since 1877), there HAVE been 13 warm Septembers. Those 13 warm Septembers paved the way for a very even split of winters. 5 winters were cold, 5 winters were mild, and 3 were near normal.

 

If we are just talking a very warm September (nino or not), of the top 20 warmest Septembers on record, 10 of the following winters were colder than normal, 4 were near normal, and 6 were warmer than normal.

 

 

In all the years I concentrated on snow data/patterns during Ninos, this is the first year I concentrated on temps. I was shocked to find some of the results, especially how once you take out the infamous winters of 1982-83 & 1997-98, strong Nino does not scream warm winter at all.

 

Also of interest is how frequently in an El Nino (of any strength) we would see one unusually warm month and one unusually cold month in met winter. In several of the warm winters there was still a very cold month, and in several of the cold winters that was a very mild month. Often times it was Dec that was warm & Feb that was cold, but by no means is that a sure thing.

 

STRONG EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

2 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

 

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

4 colder than normal Winters

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

3 warmer than normal Fall

5 near normal Falls

5 colder than normal Falls

 

6 warmer than normal Winters

2 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

WEAK EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

3 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

 

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

ALL EL NINOS SINCE 1877

7 warmer than normal Fall

8 near normal Falls

19 colder than normal Falls

 

12 warmer than normal Winters

8 near normal Winters

14 colder than normal Winters

 

Great info snowfreak as always, thank you. I was wondering if there was any correlation between a  warm September and the winter following it. Sounds like it could go either way as far as cold or warm after reading this.

[CanadianGuy]

Bit of a difference between a Nino that peaks at 1.5-1.6C and is focused closer to the dateline and one that peaks over 2.0C and is much closer to S. America.

Exactly

Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

Fog every morning, spider webs galore, & squirrels enormous tails. Nature is being a tease that's for damn sure

[michsnowfreak]

When I posted the monthly El Nino temps at Detroit a few pages back, I realized I left out the strong Nino of 1991-92. Updated to include that as well as properly bump 2009-10 to the moderate category (I originally had it as strong). Clearly, this September is modeling climo of a mod nino

 

AVERAGE TEMPS
SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2

 

STRONG EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4

1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3

1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2

1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3

1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9

1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6

1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6

1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8

1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2

1991-92 -- 63.1 -- 54.8 -- 38.5 -- 32.1 -- 28.3 -- 30.8 -- 35.5 -- 46.3

1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1911-12 -- 64.2 -- 50.9 -- 35.9 -- 33.9 -- 13.1 -- 18.3 -- 26.4 -- 46.2

1914-15 -- 62.8 -- 56.6 -- 39.7 -- 23.8 -- 23.4 -- 29.9 -- 31.9 -- 52.2

1918-19 -- 57.4 -- 55.5 -- 42.3 -- 36.3 -- 31.0 -- 29.4 -- 36.3 -- 45.9

1925-26 -- 66.1 -- 44.5 -- 38.1 -- 26.9 -- 25.4 -- 25.8 -- 29.0 -- 40.9

1930-31 -- 66.3 -- 51.6 -- 42.0 -- 29.6 -- 28.4 -- 32.8 -- 34.1 -- 48.6

1941-42 -- 67.5 -- 55.2 -- 43.0 -- 35.5 -- 25.8 -- 22.7 -- 38.5 -- 52.9

1965-66 -- 66.2 -- 51.2 -- 42.6 -- 35.9 -- 21.4 -- 28.3 -- 38.3 -- 44.4

1968-69 -- 65.5 -- 53.4 -- 41.0 -- 28.1 -- 23.1 -- 28.3 -- 33.4 -- 49.4

1986-87 -- 65.9 -- 52.6 -- 37.3 -- 31.3 -- 26.1 -- 29.6 -- 39.7 -- 50.8

1994-95 -- 66.2 -- 53.7 -- 45.5 -- 35.4 -- 28.3 -- 24.9 -- 39.1 -- 45.6

2002-03 -- 68.9 -- 50.0 -- 39.2 -- 28.7 -- 20.5 -- 23.1 -- 35.6 -- 48.4

2006-07 -- 62.0 -- 49.7 -- 42.6 -- 37.4 -- 29.6 -- 19.3 -- 40.1 -- 47.7

2009-10 -- 66.0 -- 50.0 -- 45.3 -- 29.3 -- 25.1 -- 27.8 -- 42.4 -- 52.4

 

WEAK EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1904-05 -- 63.7 -- 50.5 -- 40.1 -- 25.8 -- 20.3 -- 17.9 -- 37.5 -- 44.4

1905-06 -- 65.3 -- 52.1 -- 37.5 -- 31.9 -- 33.6 -- 25.6 -- 28.2 -- 49.2

1923-24 -- 64.0 -- 51.8 -- 40.4 -- 37.7 -- 21.8 -- 25.5 -- 33.7 -- 46.0

1939-40 -- 65.9 -- 52.9 -- 38.9 -- 33.5 -- 19.0 -- 26.7 -- 28.6 -- 42.8

1951-52 -- 62.5 -- 55.4 -- 34.6 -- 28.4 -- 29.3 -- 29.3 -- 34.3 -- 49.5

1953-54 -- 64.7 -- 56.8 -- 44.5 -- 33.6 -- 26.0 -- 33.5 -- 33.5 -- 50.1

1963-64 -- 63.1 -- 62.7 -- 46.0 -- 23.8 -- 30.4 -- 28.9 -- 36.1 -- 49.3

1969-70 -- 64.8 -- 51.4 -- 37.9 -- 26.4 -- 16.6 -- 24.4 -- 32.8 -- 49.3

1976-77 -- 62.1 -- 47.3 -- 33.5 -- 21.5 -- 12.8 -- 25.2 -- 41.4 -- 52.5

1977-78 -- 65.0 -- 47.9 -- 40.5 -- 25.5 -- 19.5 -- 16.3 -- 30.0 -- 45.5

2004-05 -- 67.4 -- 53.3 -- 43.0 -- 29.7 -- 24.1 -- 28.4 -- 33.2 -- 50.7

 

STRONG EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

2 near normal Falls

8 colder than normal Falls

 

4 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

4 colder than normal Winters

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

3 warmer than normal Fall

5 near normal Falls

5 colder than normal Falls

 

6 warmer than normal Winters

2 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

WEAK EL NINOS

1 warmer than normal Fall

3 near normal Falls

7 colder than normal Falls

 

3 warmer than normal Winters

3 near normal Winters

5 colder than normal Winters

 

ALL EL NINOS SINCE 1877

7 warmer than normal Falls

8 near normal Falls

20 colder than normal Falls

 

13 warmer than normal Winters

8 near normal Winters

14 colder than normal Winters

[buckeye]

Just got caught up on this potential east coast Hurricane scenario for this weekend.   It provides a couple of takeaways for us to keep in mind this winter:

 

- apparently the euro is still king

- Bastardi is still the go-to-guy for extreme weather hype, (wow he took one on the chin on this one)

[CoachLB]

Interesting look from updated CANSIP.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is an East based super Nino.

There is no doubt about that.

The most impressive WWB is getting underway that Will cause an explosion of ssta going up in regions 1-2 and 3. Even parts of Nino 4.

The Northern edge of the Nino will expand and warm as well.

The Southern edge will slightly.

[roardog]

This is an East based super Nino.

 

How is this not a basin wide event?

[thunderbolt]

This is an East based super Nino.

There is no doubt about that.

The most impressive WWB is getting underway that Will cause an explosion of ssta going up in regions 1-2 and 3. Even parts of Nino 4.

The Northern edge of the Nino will expand and warm as well.

The Southern edge will slightly.

yeah okay East base super El Nino

[A-L-E-K]

lol, weenies

[JoMo]

How is this not a basin wide event?

 

It's a basin wide event.

[stadiumwave]

This is an East based super Nino.

There is no doubt about that.

The most impressive WWB is getting underway that Will cause an explosion of ssta going up in regions 1-2 and 3. Even parts of Nino 4.

The Northern edge of the Nino will expand and warm as well.

The Southern edge will slightly.

It's basin wide...it's not east based. And if it warms to what you said then that's basin wide.

Let's be a little objective here;

OBJECTIVE:

-not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.

synonyms: impartial, unbiased, unprejudiced, nonpartisan, disinterested, neutral, uninvolved, even-handed, equitable, fair, fair-minded, just, open-minded, dispassionate, detached, neutral

[stadiumwave]

This is an East based super Nino.

There is no doubt about that.

The most impressive WWB is getting underway that Will cause an explosion of ssta going up in regions 1-2 and 3. Even parts of Nino 4.

The Northern edge of the Nino will expand and warm as well.

The Southern edge will slightly.

If this occurs the I like the super winter NASA GOES winter idea. It's about the only guidance thst has a super basin wide NINO

[michsnowfreak]

It's basin wide...it's not east based. And if it warms to what you said then that's basin wide.

Let's be a little objective here;

OBJECTIVE:

-not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.

synonyms: impartial, unbiased, unprejudiced, nonpartisan, disinterested, neutral, uninvolved, even-handed, equitable, fair, fair-minded, just, open-minded, dispassionate, detached, neutral

I have been reading a lot of the different threads on the upcoming winter (here, new England forum, main forum)...and a lot of posts are NOT objective. I can see who's posting it and know if it's going to be something that points toward a good winter or something that points toward a bad winter based on who's posting it. I'm talking posts with reasoning/data/etc, obviously everyone has a preference of what they like or don't like.

[andyhb]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/650149819894353920

 

Speaking of a lack of objectivity.

[OKwx2K4]

I have heard some classify 2009-10 as strong and others classify it as moderate. If we do classify it as moderate, that means there has not been a single strong el nino that produced a warm September in the southern Lakes. Not ONE. Yet there have been several moderate el Ninos that produced warm September's. So first month into met Fall and locally this is already defying strong el nino climo. In fact, based on the monthly temp numbers I posted (locally) for all el ninos, the strongest signal for ANY month in ANY strength nino was to have a cool September in a strong Nino. And that's not happening.

Couldn't quote your last post on here but what you've written here is what I have had on my mind for awhile. Regardless of the actual sst in the Nino region, the pattern simply doesn't fit. I've tried every way to make it fit the strong Nino mold as far as sensible weather, patterns, etc.. goes and I absolutely cannot make it fit. I've tried to use many areas and regions of the US and as much data as I could find to change my mind. I haven't found it yet. What I've found is that ssts may say strong Nino, but the atmosphere disagrees right now. There will be a lot for me to learn this year and I can't wait.

I lurk and read in every regional subforum here several times a day also and I appreciate the perspective that many of you provide. I'll be the first to say that I don't definitively know what's going to happen this year but I'm almost 90 percent sure this isn't going to be the cookie cutter 1997-98 or 1982-83 El Nino. Objectivity states that the most likely outcome (from what I can see) is one that has a decent likelihood of being pretty unique and that in and of itself should be pretty special and fun to learn from. :-) Thanks again for all the great posts and hard work.

[The_Global_Warmer]

yeah okay East base super El Nino

Sorry but this thing is an East based super Nino.

If you Wish to call it a basin wide event because its that massive and warm fine.

But the enso 1-3 regions are seeing an explosion of warmth.

So we have a super Nino with an off the charts WWB just getting underway?

A complete reversal of the trades on a likely near or historic level.

[IWXwx]

I know nothing about climate and climate forecasting, but I enjoy reading the thoughts posted here. However, I have to laugh at the argument about what kind of Nino this is. I'm not being political, but in the words of Trump, "It's HUGE!!!"

[michsnowfreak]

Couldn't quote your last post on here but what you've written here is what I have had on my mind for awhile. Regardless of the actual sst in the Nino region, the pattern simply doesn't fit. I've tried every way to make it fit the strong Nino mold as far as sensible weather, patterns, etc.. goes and I absolutely cannot make it fit. I've tried to use many areas and regions of the US and as much data as I could find to change my mind. I haven't found it yet. What I've found is that ssts may say strong Nino, but the atmosphere disagrees right now. There will be a lot for me to learn this year and I can't wait.

I lurk and read in every regional subforum here several times a day also and I appreciate the perspective that many of you provide. I'll be the first to say that I don't definitively know what's going to happen this year but I'm almost 90 percent sure this isn't going to be the cookie cutter 1997-98 or 1982-83 El Nino. Objectivity states that the most likely outcome (from what I can see) is one that has a decent likelihood of being pretty unique and that in and of itself should be pretty special and fun to learn from. :-) Thanks again for all the great posts and hard work.

Thank you for the kind words.

There are a lot of people here (on all subforums) who are very knowledgable from a forecasting perspective. Even the ones who are not objective (ie: either always looking for signs that it will be a cold winter or always looking for signs it will be a mild winter) are always posting interesting if not biased data. You can usually find something that looks good and something that looks bed in any given  pattern.

 

I am not one of those who knows much about forecasting . Im more the climatology expert, specifically for the climate of the southern Great Lakes. I know past weather like the back of my hand, as well as current trends that are affecting local weather. What I CAN tell you about strong Nino winters, is that once I picked them apart, even I was shocked to find how there WASNT a screaming warm signal in the small sample size of 11 years since 1877.  Much of the winter lovers "fear" is based off of 1982-83 and 1997-98. There have been just as many cold Nino winters as warm ones. And not even saying Im wishing for this, because we have seen more snow in some of our mild Nino winters than some of our colder ones. No two Ninos weather has been alike (even 82-83/97-98 were very different), and as mentioned already we are dealing with such a small sample size.

 

Not sure where you are located, but local trends have definitely been for harsher winters the last 15 years. In fact, 7 of the last 8 winters have had above normal snow, tons of snow records have been broken & in the last two years cold records as well. The trend is undeniable, which can be looked at a positive (for winter lovers), but also the trend would imply we are certainly due for some down years, which is a negative that cant be overlooked.

 

What will this winter bring? Not a clue. Snow will fall, there will be cold days, but I doubt it will be anything like the last 2 winters. Time will tell.

[Hoosier]

I know nothing about climate and climate forecasting, but I enjoy reading the thoughts posted here. However, I have to laugh at the argument about what kind of Nino this is. I'm not being political, but in the words of Trump, "It's HUGE!!!"

 

 

Huge indeed.  Basin-wide is the more accurate classification imo as all El Nino regions are in, well, El Nino.

[Hoosier]

Thank you for the kind words.

There are a lot of people here (on all subforums) who are very knowledgable from a forecasting perspective. Even the ones who are not objective (ie: either always looking for signs that it will be a cold winter or always looking for signs it will be a mild winter) are always posting interesting if not biased data. You can usually find something that looks good and something that looks bed in any given  pattern.

 

I am not one of those who knows much about forecasting . Im more the climatology expert, specifically for the climate of the southern Great Lakes. I know past weather like the back of my hand, as well as current trends that are affecting local weather. What I CAN tell you about strong Nino winters, is that once I picked them apart, even I was shocked to find how there WASNT a screaming warm signal in the small sample size of 11 years since 1877.  Much of the winter lovers "fear" is based off of 1982-83 and 1997-98. There have been just as many cold Nino winters as warm ones. And not even saying Im wishing for this, because we have seen more snow in some of our mild Nino winters than some of our colder ones. No two Ninos weather has been alike (even 82-83/97-98 were very different), and as mentioned already we are dealing with such a small sample size.

 

Not sure where you are located, but local trends have definitely been for harsher winters the last 15 years. In fact, 7 of the last 8 winters have had above normal snow, tons of snow records have been broken & in the last two years cold records as well. The trend is undeniable, which can be looked at a positive (for winter lovers), but also the trend would imply we are certainly due for some down years, which is a negative that cant be overlooked.

 

What will this winter bring? Not a clue. Snow will fall, there will be cold days, but I doubt it will be anything like the last 2 winters. Time will tell.

 

 

I think some of the added attention on 82-83/97-98 is justified as they are 2 of the only "super" Ninos, not just regular strong, to occur in relatively contemporary times, and the current one will either get extremely close to super status or get there in the trimonthly readings.  That being said, it would be risky to only look at a couple years and nothing else. 

 

May post some preliminary thoughts in a couple weeks or so, specifically for Chicago area.  Pretty early still.  One thing I will say, and it's something that you've mentioned numerous times, is the recent trend toward snowier winters...I'm not sure it would be smart to totally ignore that, even though strong Nino winters historically have tended toward below average snow.  May make me more likely to nudge above the strong Nino composite for snow this winter, although that doesn't mean it will be great.