Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

The opposite is true actually for winter fans. They usually feature warmer temps and less snow.

Looking at past El Ninos, there is a HUGE range in the kind of winters that are seen, from horrifying to awesome.

[stadiumwave]

The monthly CFSv2 is one big torch for most of the sub forum.

(time sensitive)

CFS v.2 is trash. It's awful. Winter may be warm but not for one minute do I ever think CFS has a clue.

[michsnowfreak]

CFS v.2 is trash. It's awful. Winter may be warm but not for one minute do I ever think CFS has a clue.

Lol. It is. It's fun (or not fun) to look at, nothing more.

[Hoosier]

The monthly CFS outlooks have shown to be useful but the seasonal ones not so much, at least in my experience. Makes sense I guess as there's less lead time involved in the monthly output.

[michsnowfreak]

The monthly CFS outlooks have shown to be useful but the seasonal ones not so much, at least in my experience. Makes sense I guess as there's less lead time involved in the monthly output.

Agree. If I check in on september 25 for the October outlook, the cfs might not do so bad. But seasonal is of little use.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The monthly CFS outlooks have shown to be useful but the seasonal ones not so much, at least in my experience. Makes sense I guess as there's less lead time involved in the monthly output.

Yeah the monthly output was pretty damn good this spring and summer. Have you seen the output for October? I know it's early but geez... the blues have almost completely disappeared from NA.

 

[CanadianGuy]

CFS v.2 is trash. It's awful. Winter may be warm but not for one minute do I ever think CFS has a clue.

Yeah I know.

[Geos]

Was noticing the cold pockets showing up within "the Blob" in the northeast Pacific as of late.

 

[csnavywx]

Is that a big GoA trough I spy in the medium range? Say it ain't so, Joe!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Is that a big GoA trough I spy in the medium range? Say it ain't so, Joe!

This was posted on another subforum

 

In any event, you can see how strong the forcing is around 130W right now.

The Aleutian low is displaced pretty far east over the Pacific Northwest

pumping the ridge over the Northeast now. So the key to the winter

forecast will be getting the forcing to shift far enough west so

the other models win out over the CFS.

 

 

 

 

The shift west is going to be the key to getting the Aleutian low in a favorable winter position for us.

So far the CFS did much better with NE PAC upper pattern we are seeing in September than

the JMA August forecast. But each coming month we'll be a new test as it's still too early

to know for sure how things will play out.

 

CFS September forecast from August

 

 

JMA September forecast from August

 

 

 

 

Was noticing the cold pockets showing up within "the Blob" in the northeast Pacific as of late.

 

I think it's just that site. No other site has that.

[buckeye]

Yeah the monthly output was pretty damn good this spring and summer. Have you seen the output for October? I know it's early but geez... the blues have almost completely disappeared from NA.

 

 

I would LOVE a warm dry October.

[A-L-E-K]

Welcome to raging Nino land

[michsnowfreak]

It will be interesting to see what the JAMSTEC shows when it updates (assumably sometime this week), since it has a better track record than the CFS. If the CFS is right, it would completely contradict strong Nino climo with a mild Fall. (So those that are secretly hoping for an '82-83 or 97-98 redux, even though those 2 winters were still very different from each other, thats a terrible start lol).

 

NASA still going cold, and supposedly the Euro seasonal is too, although I have not seen a graphic from the euro.

[Hoosier]

Since September seems very likely to finish warmer than average, and in light of what the CFS is showing, I wonder how common it is to have a warm September AND October in El Nino years.

[michsnowfreak]

Since September seems very likely to finish warmer than average, and in light of what the CFS is showing, I wonder how common it is to have a warm September AND October in El Nino years.

The problem is we have such a small sample size.

 

As Deedlers Fall outlook states, strong ninos tend to get progressively colder the deeper into Fall we get. Still, Sept tends to average colder than normal.

[Hoosier]

The problem is we have such a small sample size.

As Deedlers Fall outlook states, strong ninos tend to get progressively colder the deeper into Fall we get. Still, Sept tends to average colder than normal.

Oh yeah, I know it's a small sample size for strong Ninos. I'd be curious about the results if we expand it to include events of moderate intensity.

[michsnowfreak]

Oh yeah, I know it's a small sample size for strong Ninos. I'd be curious about the results if we expand it to include events of moderate intensity.

There is always so much concentration on snow...but obviously temps are just as if not more important to discern any trends.

 

Here is Detroit's temperature data for all El Ninos since the 1870s. Warmer than normal is in red, colder in blue, and temps that were +/- 0.5F of normal are in black.

 

AVERAGE TEMPS

SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2

 

Ironically...the most discernable trend of ANY month in ANY strength Nino is a cooler than normal September during strong Ninos. Yet our dominant cool pattern this year has let up for a September thats on track to be warmer than normal

 

 

STRONG EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4

1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3

1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2

1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3

1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9

1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6

1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6

1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8

1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2

1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4

2009-10 -- 66.0 -- 50.0 -- 45.3 -- 29.3 -- 25.1 -- 27.8 -- 42.4 -- 52.4

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1911-12 -- 64.2 -- 50.9 -- 35.9 -- 33.9 -- 13.1 -- 18.3 -- 26.4 -- 46.2

1914-15 -- 62.8 -- 56.6 -- 39.7 -- 23.8 -- 23.4 -- 29.9 -- 31.9 -- 52.2

1918-19 -- 57.4 -- 55.5 -- 42.3 -- 36.3 -- 31.0 -- 29.4 -- 36.3 -- 45.9

1925-26 -- 66.1 -- 44.5 -- 38.1 -- 26.9 -- 25.4 -- 25.8 -- 29.0 -- 40.9

1930-31 -- 66.3 -- 51.6 -- 42.0 -- 29.6 -- 28.4 -- 32.8 -- 34.1 -- 48.6

1941-42 -- 67.5 -- 55.2 -- 43.0 -- 35.5 -- 25.8 -- 22.7 -- 38.5 -- 52.9

1965-66 -- 66.2 -- 51.2 -- 42.6 -- 35.9 -- 21.4 -- 28.3 -- 38.3 -- 44.4

1968-69 -- 65.5 -- 53.4 -- 41.0 -- 28.1 -- 23.1 -- 28.3 -- 33.4 -- 49.4

1986-87 -- 65.9 -- 52.6 -- 37.3 -- 31.3 -- 26.1 -- 29.6 -- 39.7 -- 50.8

1994-95 -- 66.2 -- 53.7 -- 45.5 -- 35.4 -- 28.3 -- 24.9 -- 39.1 -- 45.6

2002-03 -- 68.9 -- 50.0 -- 39.2 -- 28.7 -- 20.5 -- 23.1 -- 35.6 -- 48.4

2006-07 -- 62.0 -- 49.7 -- 42.6 -- 37.4 -- 29.6 -- 19.3 -- 40.1 -- 47.7

 

WEAK EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1904-05 -- 63.7 -- 50.5 -- 40.1 -- 25.8 -- 20.3 -- 17.9 -- 37.5 -- 44.4

1905-06 -- 65.3 -- 52.1 -- 37.5 -- 31.9 -- 33.6 -- 25.6 -- 28.2 -- 49.2

1923-24 -- 64.0 -- 51.8 -- 40.4 -- 37.7 -- 21.8 -- 25.5 -- 33.7 -- 46.0

1939-40 -- 65.9 -- 52.9 -- 38.9 -- 33.5 -- 19.0 -- 26.7 -- 28.6 -- 42.8

1951-52 -- 62.5 -- 55.4 -- 34.6 -- 28.4 -- 29.3 -- 29.3 -- 34.3 -- 49.5

1953-54 -- 64.7 -- 56.8 -- 44.5 -- 33.6 -- 26.0 -- 33.5 -- 33.5 -- 50.1

1963-64 -- 63.1 -- 62.7 -- 46.0 -- 23.8 -- 30.4 -- 28.9 -- 36.1 -- 49.3

1969-70 -- 64.8 -- 51.4 -- 37.9 -- 26.4 -- 16.6 -- 24.4 -- 32.8 -- 49.3

1976-77 -- 62.1 -- 47.3 -- 33.5 -- 21.5 -- 12.8 -- 25.2 -- 41.4 -- 52.5

1977-78 -- 65.0 -- 47.9 -- 40.5 -- 25.5 -- 19.5 -- 16.3 -- 30.0 -- 45.5

2004-05 -- 67.4 -- 53.3 -- 43.0 -- 29.7 -- 24.1 -- 28.4 -- 33.2 -- 50.7

[BuffaloWeather]

There is always so much concentration on snow...but obviously temps are just as if not more important to discern any trends.

 

Here is Detroit's temperature data for all El Ninos since the 1870s. Warmer than normal is in red, colder in blue, and temps that were +/- 0.5F of normal are in black.

 

AVERAGE TEMPS

SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2

 

Ironically...the most discernable trend of ANY month in ANY strength Nino is a cooler than normal September during strong Ninos. Yet our dominant cool pattern this year has let up for a September thats on track to be warmer than normal

 

 

STRONG EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4

1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3

1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2

1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3

1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9

1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6

1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6

1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8

1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2

1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4

2009-10 -- 66.0 -- 50.0 -- 45.3 -- 29.3 -- 25.1 -- 27.8 -- 42.4 -- 52.4

 

MODERATE EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1911-12 -- 64.2 -- 50.9 -- 35.9 -- 33.9 -- 13.1 -- 18.3 -- 26.4 -- 46.2

1914-15 -- 62.8 -- 56.6 -- 39.7 -- 23.8 -- 23.4 -- 29.9 -- 31.9 -- 52.2

1918-19 -- 57.4 -- 55.5 -- 42.3 -- 36.3 -- 31.0 -- 29.4 -- 36.3 -- 45.9

1925-26 -- 66.1 -- 44.5 -- 38.1 -- 26.9 -- 25.4 -- 25.8 -- 29.0 -- 40.9

1930-31 -- 66.3 -- 51.6 -- 42.0 -- 29.6 -- 28.4 -- 32.8 -- 34.1 -- 48.6

1941-42 -- 67.5 -- 55.2 -- 43.0 -- 35.5 -- 25.8 -- 22.7 -- 38.5 -- 52.9

1965-66 -- 66.2 -- 51.2 -- 42.6 -- 35.9 -- 21.4 -- 28.3 -- 38.3 -- 44.4

1968-69 -- 65.5 -- 53.4 -- 41.0 -- 28.1 -- 23.1 -- 28.3 -- 33.4 -- 49.4

1986-87 -- 65.9 -- 52.6 -- 37.3 -- 31.3 -- 26.1 -- 29.6 -- 39.7 -- 50.8

1994-95 -- 66.2 -- 53.7 -- 45.5 -- 35.4 -- 28.3 -- 24.9 -- 39.1 -- 45.6

2002-03 -- 68.9 -- 50.0 -- 39.2 -- 28.7 -- 20.5 -- 23.1 -- 35.6 -- 48.4

2006-07 -- 62.0 -- 49.7 -- 42.6 -- 37.4 -- 29.6 -- 19.3 -- 40.1 -- 47.7

 

WEAK EL NINOS

Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR

1904-05 -- 63.7 -- 50.5 -- 40.1 -- 25.8 -- 20.3 -- 17.9 -- 37.5 -- 44.4

1905-06 -- 65.3 -- 52.1 -- 37.5 -- 31.9 -- 33.6 -- 25.6 -- 28.2 -- 49.2

1923-24 -- 64.0 -- 51.8 -- 40.4 -- 37.7 -- 21.8 -- 25.5 -- 33.7 -- 46.0

1939-40 -- 65.9 -- 52.9 -- 38.9 -- 33.5 -- 19.0 -- 26.7 -- 28.6 -- 42.8

1951-52 -- 62.5 -- 55.4 -- 34.6 -- 28.4 -- 29.3 -- 29.3 -- 34.3 -- 49.5

1953-54 -- 64.7 -- 56.8 -- 44.5 -- 33.6 -- 26.0 -- 33.5 -- 33.5 -- 50.1

1963-64 -- 63.1 -- 62.7 -- 46.0 -- 23.8 -- 30.4 -- 28.9 -- 36.1 -- 49.3

1969-70 -- 64.8 -- 51.4 -- 37.9 -- 26.4 -- 16.6 -- 24.4 -- 32.8 -- 49.3

1976-77 -- 62.1 -- 47.3 -- 33.5 -- 21.5 -- 12.8 -- 25.2 -- 41.4 -- 52.5

1977-78 -- 65.0 -- 47.9 -- 40.5 -- 25.5 -- 19.5 -- 16.3 -- 30.0 -- 45.5

2004-05 -- 67.4 -- 53.3 -- 43.0 -- 29.7 -- 24.1 -- 28.4 -- 33.2 -- 50.7

 

These are just awesome stats MSF. I really need to put forth the effort to do this for KBUF. Be cool to have a collection like this from all the major cities around the Great Lakes.

[Chinook]

Interesting article from Weather5280 (Denver), with some specifics regarding traditional El Nino, Hybrid, and Modoki El Nino

 

http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/09/08/el-nino-update-and-cpc-constructed-analog-forecast/

[stadiumwave]

Interesting article from Weather5280 (Denver), with some specifics regarding traditional El Nino, Hybrid, and Modoki El Nino

http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/09/08/el-nino-update-and-cpc-constructed-analog-forecast/

And this Nino will more than likely end up as a hybrid...JAMSTEC & CFS v.2 agree with that part.

[CanadianGuy]

And this Nino will more than likely end up as a hybrid...JAMSTEC & CFS v.2 agree with that part.

You just called the CFS v2 trash a couple days ago, and now you are using it to support a cold winter..... like bruh? 

[CanadianGuy]

Interesting write up on the hybrid el nino thingy, but the write up uses 2002-03, 2009-10, and a few other extraordinary moderate el nino winters as analog years..... we can't forget we are currently experiencing a strong el nino w/ +2 deg SST anomalies in the nino 1+2 and 3+4 regions. Another notable difference is we also got a strong +PDO, which is likely to persist. Also, the warm anomalies in the n pac simply weren't there to the same extent or persistence in previous weaker el nino seasons mentioned.. at least 2002-03 and 2009-10.. Just some thoughts and concerns. 

[michsnowfreak]

Interesting write up on the hybrid el nino thingy, but the write up uses 2002-03, 2009-10, and a few other extraordinary moderate el nino winters as analog years..... we can't forget we are currently experiencing a strong el nino w/ +2 deg SST anomalies in the nino 1+2 and 3+4 regions. Another notable difference is we also got a strong +PDO, which is likely to persist. Also, the warm anomalies in the n pac simply weren't there to the same extent or persistence in previous weaker el nino seasons mentioned.. at least 2002-03 and 2009-10.. Just some thoughts and concerns.

I have heard some classify 2009-10 as strong and others classify it as moderate. If we do classify it as moderate, that means there has not been a single strong el nino that produced a warm September in the southern Lakes. Not ONE. Yet there have been several moderate el Ninos that produced warm September's. So first month into met Fall and locally this is already defying strong el nino climo. In fact, based on the monthly temp numbers I posted (locally) for all el ninos, the strongest signal for ANY month in ANY strength nino was to have a cool September in a strong Nino. And that's not happening.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting write up on the hybrid el nino thingy, but the write up uses 2002-03, 2009-10, and a few other extraordinary moderate el nino winters as analog years..... we can't forget we are currently experiencing a strong el nino w/ +2 deg SST anomalies in the nino 1+2 and 3+4 regions. Another notable difference is we also got a strong +PDO, which is likely to persist. Also, the warm anomalies in the n pac simply weren't there to the same extent or persistence in previous weaker el nino seasons mentioned.. at least 2002-03 and 2009-10.. Just some thoughts and concerns. 

As of right now, the PDO is weakly positive. With a trough expected in the region for a while (until it retrogrades west in the winter), I'm skeptical if the PDO can rebound to where it was. With that said... I don't expect the PDO to flip this winter. 

 

[Stebo]

As of right now, the PDO is weakly positive. With a trough expected in the region for a while (until it retrogrades west in the winter), I'm skeptical if the PDO can rebound to where it was. With that said... I don't expect the PDO to flip this winter.

The PDO is already trending down and if we continue to have the strong troughing in the Gulf of Alaska it will flip phases very soon. Originally I didn't expect such quick results but with the troughing we have already had there, we are already seeing effects on the PDO.

[JoMo]

As of right now, the PDO is weakly positive. With a trough expected in the region for a while (until it retrogrades west in the winter), I'm skeptical if the PDO can rebound to where it was. With that said... I don't expect the PDO to flip this winter. 

 

 

 

 

It will come back if the models are correct and the troughing moves to the west over the next month or so. A south to southwest flow will advect the warmer water in from the south, if the troughing moves back west as modeled. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

It will come back if the models are correct and the troughing moves to the west over the next month or so. A south to southwest flow will advect the warmer water in from the south, if the troughing moves back west as modeled. 

 

The PDO is already trending down and if we continue to have the strong troughing in the Gulf of Alaska it will flip phases very soon. Originally I didn't expect such quick results but with the troughing we have already had there, we are already seeing effects on the PDO.

I agree with both of you. I thought there was no way in hell we'd even be talking about the possibility of the PDO flipping. Now it's slightly more realistic. 

 

Of course, it depends on how far west the trough retrogrades. Also of importance is, will the ridge be far enough over the water to warm it back up and warm the PDO? Or will it mostly be over land?

 

We still probably have 2 or 3 months until we begin to expect the trough to retrograde. Lots of time for change.

[ClicheVortex2014]

September 16, 2015 minus September 16, 1997... PDO is quite a bit cooler but we obviously still have a bigger warm pool. 

 

[CanadianGuy]

It will come back if the models are correct and the troughing moves to the west over the next month or so. A south to southwest flow will advect the warmer water in from the south, if the troughing moves back west as modeled. 

PDO should stay positive through the winter. 

[CanadianGuy]

The summer of 1997 also featured a strong PDO, which weakened considerably in the autumn season but remained positive until June 1998.