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Winter 2015-16 Discussion


Hoosier

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The great Lakes temper heat waves, cold waves, & bring excessive cloudiness to this side of the Lake.

There is quite a north to south gradient from southern MI to southern OH.

Ya there is an extreme gradient in just Ohio as well as the NE section is in a prime lake effect belt.

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While it certainly hasn't been the case during the last few severe winters, I can remember many times in years past where the gradient from Detroit to Toledo can be crazy.

Surprisingly, 2013-14 had 3 severe events here while 2014-15 had 0. That's one thing I enjoyed about that winter... it was active as hell, not only in clippers, but in the big warm frontal systems. As has been discussed earlier, there was no big snow event in 2013-14... but there were plenty of big rain events. 

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The OV does have a surprising big-snowstorm climo though. I know Louisville has had a few large snowstorms over the last 25 years or so. Obviously it's not as good as areas further northwest but it's better than one would expect given the average yearly snow totals.

 

The OV certainly showed its hand in terms of producing big snows this past winter. Seems like there were two weeks were they were in the perfect zone.

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The OV does have a surprising big-snowstorm climo though. I know Louisville has had a few large snowstorms over the last 25 years or so. Obviously it's not as good as areas further northwest but it's better than one would expect given the average yearly snow totals.

We've definitely had our share of big snow events that drop totals close to our annual average snowfall... but I don't remember getting one foot of snow from a single system in all of my 22 years. I know we got ~18" in 1998, but I was too young to remember that. The Blizzard of 78 is synonymous to the 74 Super Outbreak in terms of legendary events around here. Anyone who grew up here and is over the age of 45 (and doesn't have alzheimers) remembers those days.

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We've definitely had our share of big snow events that drop totals close to our annual average snowfall... but I don't remember getting one foot of snow from a single system in all of my 22 years. I know we got ~18" in 1998, but I was too young to remember that. The Blizzard of 78 is synonymous to the 74 Super Outbreak in terms of legendary events around here. Anyone who grew up here and is over the age of 45 (and doesn't have alzheimers) remembers those days.

How about Christmas 2004 or even March 08? I think the 08 event fell short of 10" or so, but seems 04 had some impressive totals.

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How about Christmas 2004 or even March 08? I think the 08 event fell short of 10" or so, but seems 04 had some impressive totals.

According to ILN's LCD (not the drug), CVG recorded 6.8" + 2.6". Close but no cigar. 

 

We got 3 events in 1 week this February that totaled 16.7"... but the deepest depth I measured was ~10". It was pretty fun... but then it got cold.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here's the last two winter outlook by them.

If you forecast "cold temperatures and snow" for winter your forecast is bound to verify. People who actually take the Almanac long range outlooks seriously will remember that one week of cold weather or that one 12" snowfall, and they will be happy with the "verified" forecast, even if the rest of the winter is warmer than normal and rainy. 

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I'm trying to imagine wet in the Pac NW and dry in the SW. That seems like it wouldn't be easy to pull off in such a strong Nino.

 

Yeah, I know really! For California and Nevada's sake, I hope that dry and mild forecast fails.

 

Those were definitely meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but I have seen them forecast mild winters before. The last two did verify lol. Hat trick?

 

They just change adjectives each winter.

Now in 2013, they just used straight forward wording. They probably figure they'll get people attention if they use words like frigid and stinging, lol! Frigid and flaky for the northern Rockies and Plains - that was pretty good!

 

2013_USFA_Winter_Map.jpeg

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If you forecast "cold temperatures and snow" for winter your forecast is bound to verify. People who actually take the Almanac long range outlooks seriously will remember that one week of cold weather or that one 12" snowfall, and they will be happy with the "verified" forecast, even if the rest of the winter is warmer than normal and rainy.

They probably figure they'll get people attention if they use words like frigid and stinging, lol! Frigid and flaky for the northern Rockies and Plains - that was pretty good!

2013_USFA_Winter_Map.jpeg

It's a smart strategy, really.

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It's a smart strategy, really.

I disagree. While the wording is corny, that implies winter will be colder and snowier than normal (and again, corny graphics aside it states it in their summary that it will be snowier than normal). Any winter will have cold and snowy days in this area, but say we had a winter with 20" of snow..do you honestly think someone would say, hey the almanac was right, it snowed? :lol:. On the other hand, if they predicted a mild winter with less snow, I don't think a brutal winter buried in snow that featured a few Feb days thawing in the 40s would have someone say hey, the gutters are dripping and I don't need my heavy coat today, the almanac was right!
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  • 2 weeks later...

The GEOS5 and CMC2 both have +3C SST anomalies stretching to and even west of the equatorial dateline. That seems quite extreme (not to mention unprecedented) and is part of the reason why they go ridiculous with the cold. None of the remaining model runs do that and all of those show a wall-to-wall torch.

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