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Winter 2015-16 Discussion

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
Posted

Haha I think so. Which is weird because underneath that is quite a bit of solid ice & snow still which is crazy in mid-summer 8 months later with 90 degs all week.

Yeah, if the pile is that big in late July, it's probably not going away until next summer. It's all downhill from here heat-wise... then you have lake effect season and winter. That's crazy.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
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Careful with the terminology here. Central-based = Modoki. This isn't a Modoki.

What kind of Nino are the CFS and JAMSTEC showing then?

 

 

I'm glad I got my passport renewed, winter 2011-2012 was insane for Ontario Algoma region. 5-6 feet was probably the most widespread I have seen to date, made last winter look puny.

It'll always be hard for me to think of the winter of 2011-12 as a "winter". :blink:

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andyhb

andyhb

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What constitutes west/east/central/basin-wide? I was told that an east-based Nino is where the highest anomaly is in Nino 1+2.... west-based is where the highest anomaly is in Nino 4... etc. This Nino looks to be loaded more to the east than the west... especially as the winter progresses.

 

Well basin-wide is what you would expect, i.e. a rather even distribution of warm (or cold, in a La Nina) anomalies throughout all of the ENSO regions. Central/west-based events generally have cooler anomalies in Nino 1+2.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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Well basin-wide is what you would expect, i.e. a rather even distribution of warm (or cold, in a La Nina) anomalies throughout all of the ENSO regions. Central/west-based events generally have cooler anomalies in Nino 1+2.

My original thought was that an east-based Nino is where the highest anomalies are in the eastern 2 regions (1+2 and 3), and cooler anomalies in the west... in west-based, it's in regions 4 and 3.4, cooler anomalies in the east.... central-based is regions 3 and 3.4. I thought that worked out pretty well.

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Jonger

Jonger

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What kind of Nino are the CFS and JAMSTEC showing then?

 

 

It'll always be hard for me to think of the winter of 2011-12 as a "winter". :blink:

 

It was actually a better snowpack in Ontario in March 2012 (pre-Morch) than March 2015.

 

Of course 2011-2012 wasn't an el nino. I have had zero luck trying to find region wide snowfall maps from 97-98.

 

post-7333-0-02379600-1438210221_thumb.jp

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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Weathertrends is sold on a record-breaking Nino. They finally released their winter outlook (~3 months later than last year)... they're also calling for a strong Nina next year.

 

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Strongest-El-Nio-in-100-years-Here-are-some-predictions-2506

 

Keep in mind these temp departures are relative to last winter. I hate that they do that. Considering last winter was a warm west/cold east, they're basically calling for a warmer than average winter for the entire US. Massive -PNA too apparently.

 

El-Nino-41.png

ypPsTG7.png

El-Nino-7.png

 

FYI... here's their forecasts for the past 2 winters.

 

2013-2014: http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Weather-Trends-Internationals-2013-2014-Top-10-Winter-Predic-1670

2014-2015: http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Long-Range-Weather-Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935

 

They did not do well with the precip on the west coast

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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Weathertrends is sold on a record-breaking Nino. They finally released their winter outlook (~3 months later than last year)... they're also calling for a strong Nina next year.

 

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Strongest-El-Nio-in-100-years-Here-are-some-predictions-2506

 

Keep in mind these temp departures are relative to last winter. I hate that they do that. Considering last winter was a warm west/cold east, they're basically calling for a warmer than average winter for the entire US. Massive -PNA too apparently.

 

El-Nino-41.png

ypPsTG7.png

El-Nino-7.png

 

FYI... here's their forecasts for the past 2 winters.

 

2013-2014: http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Weather-Trends-Internationals-2013-2014-Top-10-Winter-Predic-1670

2014-2015: http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Long-Range-Weather-Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935

 

They did not do well with the precip on the west coast

 

 

Oh my...looks like they are buying into the RRR breaking down big time. Not sure I'm buying into that yet.  Time will tell if this very cooler than normal waters over the NW Pacific will make it into the Gulf of Alaska.

 

anomnight.7.27.2015.gif

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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Oh my...looks like they are buying into the RRR breaking down big time. Not sure I'm buying into that yet.  Time will tell if this very cooler than normal waters over the NW Pacific will make it into the Gulf of Alaska.

That cold tongue extending from the Sea of Okhotsk seems to be the cause for the weakening of the warm pool. The tongue is warming now, and the warm pool is recovering... but it's still much weaker and smaller than before.

 

7/13 at 00z:

u6jniSC.png

 

7/29 at 00z

HV3NrYe.png

 

 

From the start of the weakening, I doubted that it was gonna go away because CFS, which is more aggressive with weakening the warm pool than JAMSTEC, has the warm pool and PDO weakening during the winter. That'd be 6 months ahead of 'schedule', and there's no way the CFS could be that wrong.

 

I assume this "event" happened as a result of two currents merging temporarily and pushing cold water east. CFS must be suggesting that these events will either become more long-lived or more frequent. 

 

In other words... the warm pool isn't going anywhere for at least a few months. But how it recovers and how long it takes until another one strikes are great questions.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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So what's your favorite upper 30's winter activity?

Lol. Mild winters still have cold shots and snow. Probably more roller coaster than a stagnant persistent upper 30s.

I'm certainly prepared for a mild winter, but with a juiced subtropical jet, a seemingly unbreakable nw flow pattern for nearly 3 years now, & an unprecedented never-before-seen stretch of snowy winters (7 of the last 8 winters snowier than normal), I'd bet the bank this winter is better than either 82-83 or 97-98, I don't care how strong nino is. Heck if nino was forecast to be anything other than strong I'd probably go for another cold winter with the pattern persistence.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

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What kind of Nino are the CFS and JAMSTEC showing then?

 

 
 

It'll always be hard for me to think of the winter of 2011-12 as a "winter". :blink:

You might call it a basin-wide event. Although it still has more in common with an east-based Nino than anything with 1+2 temps running around +2C.

 

CP or Modoki Ninos typically have negative anomalies in Nino 1+2. They sometimes start with some warm anomalies there in the initial stages, but nothing like we've had so far. It's been and will likely be much too warm for it to act like a CP Nino. Hell, the warm pool is already centered around 160W and it's only late July.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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You might call it a basin-wide event. Although it still has more in common with an east-based Nino than anything with 1+2 temps running around +2C.

 

CP or Modoki Ninos typically have negative anomalies in Nino 1+2. They sometimes start with some warm anomalies there in the initial stages, but nothing like we've had so far. It's been and will likely be much too warm for it to act like a CP Nino. Hell, the warm pool is already centered around 160W and it's only late July.

Thanks. And yeah, by the time DJF comes around, Nino 4 is only gonna be around +0.5C according to CFS. That's pretty cool for how warm it is to the east.... that's why I wasn't sure what to call it. JAMSTEC has a much better basin-wide event, but Nino 4 has been really resilient to warm up so I don't think either model has a good grip on what's going on.

 

Edit: back to your second sentence..

 

zRbCrNX.png

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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It will be interesting if the Big El Nino March storm effect happens again. 73,83,98 all had big March storms in parts of the Lakes.

On the flip side, remember that storm in October 1997? Was a pretty good October snowstorm north of us. I remember seeing some dramatic pics from the Omaha area.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

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Thanks. And yeah, by the time DJF comes around, Nino 4 is only gonna be around +0.5C according to CFS. That's pretty cool for how warm it is to the east.... that's why I wasn't sure what to call it. JAMSTEC has a much better basin-wide event, but Nino 4 has been really resilient to warm up so I don't think either model has a good grip on what's going on.

 

Edit: back to your second sentence..

 

zRbCrNX.png

Yep, that's why Nino 3.4 is king and why so much attention is paid to that region.

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Jonger

Jonger

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el nino, la nina, normal, mild, harsh, whatever.... I'll still get 200" :lmao:

 

Probably.

 

Let's face it, it only hurts those of us who straddle the line. I actually expect the Algoma region of Ontario to have a bigger than normal winter.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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So... Super Nino analogs say warm winter for lakes. Strong July AO analogs say heavy duty -AO NDJ with requisite blocking which portends very cold lakes, as well no sign of cooling GOA which portends cold lakes, so the cards say cold winter. With this particular hand I just don't see how we are going to have any certainty until we get into October and see where we stand. Either way I think we are an for an interesting winter, going to be fun to sit back and watch and discuss, whatever happens. We seem to be in the age of extremes. Extremes are at least fun for a weather enthusiast. We live in interesting times (meteorologically speaking)

Sent from my iPhone

Just want to say that just because there's no imminent signs of the GOA cooling doesn't mean nothing will happen before winter comes (still 4 months away). We saw how quick that warm pool nearly vanished this July.

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

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Just want to say that just because there's no imminent signs of the GOA cooling doesn't mean nothing will happen before winter comes (still 4 months away). We saw how quick that warm pool nearly vanished this July.

Yea, if it happens it'll probably be more so beginning in Oct/Nov. And like you said it can happen really fast with the right pattern.

Some type of cooling is inevitable I think. But where the cooling is will be interesing & the key.

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