Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[andyhb]

Wow. How does that NMME typically perform?

 

http://cicsmd.umd.edu/assets/1/7/4-4_Li-Chuan_Chen.pdf

 

As csnavy has mentioned, there aren't really a lot of things holding this thing back from going into overdrive. Probably do want some cooler waters surrounding Australia as well.

[michsnowfreak]

What is a modoki-like temp/precip pattern?

[ClicheVortex2014]

What is a modoki-like temp/precip pattern?

 

Can't find a good link... hope someone will help me out here. But this one might do. It's basically extremely dry/warm west and very cold east.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

[Nelson]

we'll have a raging nino and cold NW flow will still find a way to dominate

 

After the past 2 years, this is how I'm feeling...

[ClicheVortex2014]

Does anyone have any information/thoughts on how the AMO impacts DJF? I've heard that it favors a +NAO... but I looked at the AMO's correlation to US temperatures, and it doesn't match up.

 

 

I guess it kinda makes sense because, if a +AMO favors a -NAO, that means there's a high pressure over Greenland. Therefore... Maine should be the most positive correlation. But then again, the -NAO favors very cold temps over the eastern US.

 

I suspect that maybe this site has a different definition of the AMO. Perhaps it's programmed that a +AMO is defined as what we call a -AMO, if that makes sense. That'd be the only logical explanation under the premise that a -AMO favors a +NAO.

 

UNLESS it's literally just focusing on what the AMO favors... not the indirect consequence (NAO). In which case, maybe we should inverse the NAO correlation (so that the reds are blues and blues are reds) and combine it with the AMO correlation and take the difference.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

There's been a lot of cooling in the Southwest Pacific near Indonesia. Could this be of any significance? I was thinking enhancing the effect of WWBs (new term for me, hope I'm using it right)?

 

[Rainman]

SST anomalies can lag or lead the atmospheric response.  A "warm blob" is kind of expected after a ridge has been locked in place for multiple years.  The feedback loop between warm SSTs and atmospheric ridging is not unbreakable.  An example of something that can bust you out of a stubborn multi-year pattern of persistence?  A raging strong el Nino.

 

Frankly, anything but a warm winter across the north could be ominous for the western United States.  It's just my opinion, but you're honestly gonna tell me that one of the strongest (potentially) el Ninos ever can't break the pattern over there?  Then I hope your town is ready to start accommodating refugees from California in a few years.

 

One of the key consequences of a warmer world is pattern persistence and amplified longwaves.  So if that can't bend in the face of el Nino, just how screwed is California?  A rhetorical question, of course.  Plenty of the models show that this el Nino can and will obliterate the ridge over the west.  For their sake, let's hope it does.  IMO, the speculation that this winter could still be cold across the north and northeast is just wishcasting.

 

Even so, hope is not lost.  With a raging subtropical jet, all it takes is one good phaser to produce an epic snow storm.

[michsnowfreak]

SST anomalies can lag or lead the atmospheric response. A "warm blob" is kind of expected after a ridge has been locked in place for multiple years. The feedback loop between warm SSTs and atmospheric ridging is not unbreakable. An example of something that can bust you out of a stubborn multi-year pattern of persistence? A raging strong el Nino.

Frankly, anything but a warm winter across the north could be ominous for the western United States. It's just my opinion, but you're honestly gonna tell me that one of the strongest (potentially) el Ninos ever can't break the pattern over there? Then I hope your town is ready to start accommodating refugees from California in a few years.

One of the key consequences of a warmer world is pattern persistence and amplified longwaves. So if that can't bend in the face of el Nino, just how screwed is California? A rhetorical question, of course. Plenty of the models show that this el Nino can and will obliterate the ridge over the west. For their sake, let's hope it does. IMO, the speculation that this winter could still be cold across the north and northeast is just wishcasting.

Even so, hope is not lost. With a raging subtropical jet, all it takes is one good phaser to produce an epic snow storm.

As I have said before, the fact that we are so overdue for a stinker winter worries me more than any el nino. We have had ONE dud in the last 8 years of otherwise snowy to epically snowy winters.

I do have to disagree with the statement that anyone saying this winter COULD be yet another cold one in the northeast portion of the country is wishcasting. There have been cold winters during mod-strong el Ninos before, & plenty more with near average temps. If ever there was a time when pattern persistence said cold winter is possible, it is now. Especially with the forecasts of a modoki el nino pattern as mentioned above. It is true that when you take all the strong el Ninos and average them out it does lean towards a mild winter, but IMO hearing a strong el nino and immediately thinking 82-83 or at least 97-98 redux...or thinking it will be not only a mild but downright warm winter..THAT is wishcasting .

As someone who has studied the last 140 years of winters in Detroit, I can tell you the run we have been on has never been equalled, and the only parallel would arguably be the opposite extreme of year after year of cruddy winters in the 1940s. I really am starting to believe our winters are getting snowier, but that doesn't mean there won't be crap winters thrown in. So by no means am I going cold or mild this winter (I don't forecast the future, I dissect the past), just saying that neither will surprise me.

And above all else...at our northern latitude...if all you are worried about is snow...a mild winter is by NO means a death sentence for potentially lots of snow, & a cold winter is by NO means a guarantee average to above average snow.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Just because it's mild doesn't mean that you won't get above average snow or that winter would be cancelled before it even begins. The Subtropical jet will be very active.

[IWXwx]

Just because it's mild doesn't mean that you won't get above average snow or that winter would be cancelled before it even begins. The Subtropical jet will be very active.

 

I agree. However, I feel the odds are that this area will not see the long stretches of bitter cold that we've experienced recently.

[Hoosier]

I agree. However, I feel the odds are that this area will not see the long stretches of bitter cold that we've experienced recently.

 

Seconded.  Even if winter doesn't turn out mild overall, I fully expect more thaws/more difficulty in retaining snowcover.

[michsnowfreak]

Seconded.  Even if winter doesn't turn out mild overall, I fully expect more thaws/more difficulty in retaining snowcover.

I would tend to agree. Not only because its typical of a Nino (but dont tell that to 1911-12 or 1977-78), but because the last two winters were just insane for snowcover retention. The last two winters, 2013-2014+2014-15, DTW's 1"+ snowcover days were a combined 71 days above normal! And thats not even counting the fact that most of those were days of 1 foot+ than 1 inch+

[stadiumwave]

Surprise, surprise......not really from me:

Euro seasonal forecast for winter came out....looks like 2014 & 15

[Rainman]

Surprise, surprise......not really from me:

 

Euro seasonal forecast for winter came out....looks like 2014 & 15

S

 

So the ECMWF retains a strong element of pattern persistence.  Interesting.  If that is the case, then I hereby call for a west coast ridge and great lakes trough for the next 500 straight seasons because it's obviously immovable.

[Minnesota Meso]

So the ECMWF retains a strong element of pattern persistence.  Interesting.  If that is the case, then I hereby call for a west coast ridge and great lakes trough for the next 500 straight seasons because it's obviously immovable.

 

Until the waters in the Gulf of Alaska start to cool and move towards neutral I believe what is shown above to be a good possibility, quite frankly that has to break down.

[stadiumwave]

Definitely agree that at some point that has to cool. You'd think this El Nino has a really good shot to do so, wit thE usual Pacific SLP. With that said...it may not happen in time for winter but who knows if it even will at all.

For all of the N. American West coast sake let's hope so.

[michsnowfreak]

So the ECMWF retains a strong element of pattern persistence.  Interesting.  If that is the case, then I hereby call for a west coast ridge and great lakes trough for the next 500 straight seasons because it's obviously immovable.

Sounds like a plan

[ClicheVortex2014]

I see the RRR has its own Wikipedia page now. I also see an editor must be wish casting as the article states the ridge influenced "the 2015/2016 winter" (said in past tense).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Sent from my iPhone

Maybe they're from the future....

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not sure where to post this... I'm guessing this is the best spot.

 

There's been rather substantial cooling along the west coast of North America. It's probably just another one of the short-term oscillations... so it'll probably warm right back up. But the cold tongue extending east from the Sea of Okhotsk is worth watching.

Notice the position of the end of this tongue. 38 degrees N, 170 degrees W.

 

CFS's output for ASO has a cold pool in that vicinity for the season ASO.

 

 

Per CFS's solution... this tongue should gradually work east-northeast between the 2 warm pools in the NE Pacific (one extending west-southwest from the Baja peninsula, the other is the infamous GOA warm pool). That is how CFS thinks the PDO will perish. Of course, all of this will take many months to happen. It probably won't happen before the winter is over... but more likely before next summer. In previous cases, it has taken 9-12 months for the PDO to flip from the first sign of a -PDO in the west Pacific (warm tongue extending east from Japan). This signal first popped up in April 2015. Since the Northeast Pacific is so warm, it might take longer than usual.

 

Any thoughts?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Considering the last 3 El Nino's to bust above 2.000 with ONI all turned into La Nina phases afterwards, it would be a good bet the +PDO signatures slowly falls apart over the next year with the snapping STJ. Looks like we may be at the term where the Pacific and Atlantic slowly reverse going foward for winter 2016-17. Just a guess though. Maybe the +PDO is here to stay in general, which would be a decade earlier than expected.

Yeah, in CPC's most recent seasonal outlook, they already stated to watch for a flip to a Nina beyond Summer 2016 based on past strong Ninos.

 

As for assuming the PDO will flip since we tend to get a Nina after a strong Nino... the only counter-case I have is 82-83. We switched to a Nina directly after the Nino, but the PDO stayed positive. 

 

I've read before that the PDO enhances the associated ENSO state (i.e., +PDO enhances Nino). I wonder if the fact that 97-98 was transitioning to a -PDO had an impact on where the Nino was based. Because, on the other side of the coin, 82-83 was a solid +PDO all the way through, and it turned out to be central-based (or basin-wide, I forget). 

 

But because 97-98 was transitioning from +PDO to -PDO, the southwestern Pacific was cooler than average... which might've had a detrimental impact on region 4 (via WWBs?)... therefore keeping it mostly east-based.

 

If we're really seeing a PDO flip starting to happen during this Nino,whether it's strong or super, I wonder if the transitioning PDO state has an impact on where it's based.

 

CFS has a mostly east-based Super Nino with a transitioning PDO... JAMSTEC has a mostly central-based (or basin-wide) with a PDO that's transitioning, albeit slower than CFS. Who's right? Who knows... but one thing's for sure... Nino 1+2 and Nino 4 have NOT been doing what the models have said they should.

 

FYI... here's a loop of the 97-98 Super Nino, then the transition to the strong Nina

http://oi53.tinypic.com/etb58j.jpg

[stadiumwave]

Yeah, in CPC's most recent seasonal outlook, they already stated to watch for a flip to a Nina beyond Summer 2016 based on past strong Ninos.

 

As for assuming the PDO will flip since we tend to get a Nina after a strong Nino... the only counter-case I have is 82-83. We switched to a Nina directly after the Nino, but the PDO stayed positive. 

 

I've read before that the PDO enhances the associated ENSO state (i.e., +PDO enhances Nino). I wonder if the fact that 97-98 was transitioning to a -PDO had an impact on where the Nino was based. Because, on the other side of the coin, 82-83 was a solid +PDO all the way through, and it turned out to be central-based (or basin-wide, I forget). 

 

But because 97-98 was transitioning from +PDO to -PDO, the southwestern Pacific was cooler than average... which might've had a detrimental impact on region 4 (via WWBs?)... therefore keeping it mostly east-based.

 

If we're really seeing a PDO flip starting to happen during this Nino,whether it's strong or super, I wonder if the transitioning PDO state has an impact on where it's based.

 

CFS has a mostly east-based Super Nino with a transitioning PDO... JAMSTEC has a mostly central-based (or basin-wide) with a PDO that's transitioning, albeit slower than CFS. Who's right? Who knows... but one thing's for sure... Nino 1+2 and Nino 4 have NOT been doing what the models have said they should.

 

FYI... here's a loop of the 97-98 Super Nino, then the transition to the strong Nina

http://oi53.tinypic.com/etb58j.jpg

 

CFS has the warmest anomalies in 3 & 3.4 regions making it a central based:

 

 

 

 

An east-based El Nino would have the warmest anomalies in Regions 1 & 2...like 97-98. Neither CFS nor JAMSTEC is forecasting that.

 

But since all regions are forecasted above El Nino criteria it really should be considered a basin wide event with warmest anomalies central located.

[ClicheVortex2014]

CFS has the warmest anomalies in 3 & 3.4 regions making it a central based:

 

An east-based El Nino would have the warmest anomalies in Regions 1 & 2...like 97-98. Neither CFS nor JAMSTEC is forecasting that.

 

But since all regions are forecasted above El Nino criteria it really should be considered a basin wide event with warmest anomalies central located.

Ah, didn't know that. I thought east based was a group of 2 regions (1+2 and 3), not just one of them.

[stadiumwave]

Ah, didn't know that. I thought east based was a group of 2 regions (1+2 and 3), not just one of them.

 

 

 

 

If 1 & 2 cool as CFS forecasts, region 4 is as warm as 1 & 2 for bit

[ClicheVortex2014]

If 1 & 2 cool as CFS forecasts, region 4 is as warm as 1 & 2 for bit

Yeah I dunno what I was thinking at the time. But it is east-based now, so there! I'm right about one thing

 

And wow, the Nino 1+2 dip really warmed up with the last "update". Almost +0.5C warmer. Finally catching on to the current conditions I see...

[stadiumwave]

Yeah I dunno what I was thinking at the time. But it is east-based now, so there! I'm right about one thing

And wow, the Nino 1+2 dip really warmed up with the last "update". Almost +0.5C warmer. Finally catching on to the current conditions I see...

When 1 & 2 actually cool I'll believe the models...lol.

[Gilbertfly]

The amplification of the STJ is usually why top notch El Nino's produce milder than normal winters.

Meh...Nino, Nina, Santa Maria....

Typhoons still rocking western Pacific...SW ridges and GOA LPs....a beating SE ridge...GL troughs...splash in an occasional STJ interaction and seasonally strong Midwest to GL SLPs once a month or so...makes for normal to below temps...and decent precip totals...toss in the GL water temps running at normal to slightly below...its gonna take more than a strong Nino to break the "pattern"...then again it all depends what pattern you are looking at.

It's a pain in the butt from a forecasting point of view....but we prolly need another 1000 years of Nino Nina watching to determine the effects...the problem is the control group is constantly evolving as well...what crops are being planted? What is left of rain forests upstream? What areas have created or dissolved urban environments...how much arctic ice is left...etc x 100,000.

My 6 cents fwiw

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty crazy but we still have snow on the ground from the November lake effect storm. Hopefully this upcoming winter could be half as good as last winter was, minus the extreme cold.

 

http://www.wgrz.com/story/weather/2015/07/27/8-months-after-it-was-piled-there-snow-from-monster-storm-can-still-be-found-near-central-terminal/30741259/

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty crazy but we still have snow on the ground from the November lake effect storm. Hopefully this upcoming winter could be half as good as last winter was, minus the extreme cold.

 

http://www.wgrz.com/story/weather/2015/07/27/8-months-after-it-was-piled-there-snow-from-monster-storm-can-still-be-found-near-central-terminal/30741259/

Eww.... is that really grass growing on top of the pile? 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Eww.... is that really grass growing on top of the pile?

Sure looks like it, and I complain about my dirty little piles

[BuffaloWeather]

Eww.... is that really grass growing on top of the pile? 

 

Haha I think so. Which is weird because underneath that is quite a bit of solid ice & snow still which is crazy in mid-summer 8 months later with 90 degs all week.