Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[Chinook]

Meanwhile, the CFS continues to blast away at December.  I give it points for consistency at least.

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gif

You know, if the average of those CFSv2 forecasts were right to the exact degree:

 

That would mean 7.2F+ above average in Minnesota and nearly all of Ontario.

5.4F to 7.2F above average for Iowa and northern Illinois.

 

 

Here is what I am thinking. There is plenty of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific that -might- turn into warm surface temperatures in areas of North America. If there is a strong low at the Aleutians, it could pump in the mild Pacific air. Now, of course the northern tier of the US and up to northwest Canada could be locations of warmth in the generalized El Nino thinking.  When I saw the SST/CA climate model recently, I thought this :  huge Aleutian 500mb low and strongly above average 500mb heights in Canada could lead to northwest Canada being +10F (+5.5C). the SST/CA temp forecast actually has about +9F (+5C) for Fairbanks and the Yukon. So that's pretty insane for a full 3 months. You just never know what's going to happen with the movements of arctic air though.

 

There are also signs of a negative AO and negative NAO coming up this winter. In the past 14 days, obviously the positive NAO and AO prevailed.  The negative NAO should happen in about one week, but beyond that is out of the range of the GFS/ECMWF. Now, the QBO seems to be into the positive. Even though that's in the stratosphere, high above the troposphere, the negative QBOs winters help with negative AO patterns, and vice versa. I truly don't understand it though. The positive QBO might be trying to fight with the blocking at various regions(at any longitude, not just North America.) Note: El Nino average 500mb height patterns correlate with a negative NAO.

[hm8]

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

Forums

[Rainman]

You know, if the average of those CFSv2 forecasts were right to the exact degree:

 

That would mean 7.2F+ above average in Minnesota and nearly all of Ontario.

5.4F to 7.2F above average for Iowa and northern Illinois.

 

 

Here is what I am thinking. There is plenty of ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific that -might- turn into warm surface temperatures in areas of North America. If there is a strong low at the Aleutians, it could pump in the mild Pacific air. Now, of course the northern tier of the US and up to northwest Canada could be locations of warmth in the generalized El Nino thinking.  When I saw the SST/CA climate model recently, I thought this :  huge Aleutian 500mb low and strongly above average 500mb heights in Canada could lead to northwest Canada being +10F (+5.5C). the SST/CA temp forecast actually has about +9F (+5C) for Fairbanks and the Yukon. So that's pretty insane for a full 3 months. You just never know what's going to happen with the movements of arctic air though.

 

There are also signs of a negative AO and negative NAO coming up this winter. In the past 14 days, obviously the positive NAO and AO prevailed.  The negative NAO should happen in about one week, but beyond that is out of the range of the GFS/ECMWF. Now, the QBO seems to be into the positive. Even though that's in the stratosphere, high above the troposphere, the negative QBOs winters help with negative AO patterns, and vice versa. I truly don't understand it though. The positive QBO might be trying to fight with the blocking at various regions(at any longitude, not just North America.) Note: El Nino average 500mb height patterns correlate with a negative NAO.

 

QBO affects the direction that wave energy travels.  A -QBO favors poleward, and that northward direction of energy decelerates the polar jet (i.e. blocking, -AO, etc).  A +QBO favors equatorward, which provides a level of protection against weaking the polar vortex. 

 

el Nino does favor -AO because it wears on the PV over time (97-98 was actually a -AO winter).  I expect this to be a dominant theme of how this winter evolves.  Strong strat + wQBO  working against el Nino in terms of PV strength and eventual AO mode.  Of course, there is also the potential problem of transitioning to a -AO and having no cold air in Canada (again...see 97-98).

[Hoosier]

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

 

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_156.gif

 

was just looking at this and texted Joe lol trended towards the last two runs of the Euro which has this as well. Wave develops on the leading edge of the baroclinic zone. Impressive banding signal on the GFS. 

[wisconsinwx]

 

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_156.gif

 

00z GEM has it as well, albeit slightly south and west with the heavier amounts.

[The_Global_Warmer]

But that doesn't change the fact that the freezing temperature is 32 degrees...which was my point. I don't care if the anomaly is plus 20....if that still nets a below freezing temp average, than snowcover can be maintained better.

Snow and ice don't stay at 32F.

In the arctic during Spring it takes time for the ice to warm up to the freeze point before any melting.

This would imply a colder snow pack would be better in terms of not modifying air masses.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Humans migrated by choice before we had food security.

We would migrate at the first sign of winter without prior knowledge of what there winter had in store.

These animals migrate to survive.

They will be going no matter what.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Two huge ridges in favored blocking areas.

But only average heights over the US.

Pretty much a westerly to almost WSW flow aloft.

At the surface the action seems to be really far North for such a big trough.

But relatively speaking heights are normal.

[SpartyOn]

Thick deer skins? Lol.

[DaveNay]

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

 

It's evolution or survival of the fittest at it's most simplistic form.

 

Let's say there is some old wives tale that "When the furry mammal has extra long hair, the winter is going to be cold."

 

Now we have this scenario:

 

In late fall of the first year, there are 50% short hair and 50% long hair furry mammals. This is "normal" so people don't think much of the winter.

 

Ooop! The first winter is really cold so now half of the short hair furry mammals die from cold but all of the long hair ones survive.

 

Now there are twice as many long hair furry mammals as there are short hair furry mammals the next breeding season. With odds being what they are, the chances of long hair mating with long hair is much higher (poor frustrated short hair furry mammals ;-( ).

 

In the fall of the second year when all of the furry mammals are out collecting food for the coming winter, people notice that instead of the usual 50/50 mix of short hair and long hair furry mammals, there are instead 80% long hair furry mammals and only 20% short hair furry mammals due to the long hair breeding pairs creating long hair offspring.

 

Eureka! There are more long hair furry mammals than there are short hair furry mammals, so it must be going to be a cold winter this year!

 

Or is it? Repeat this scenario again due to another severe winter like we have had, and the effect becomes even more exaggerated.

 

As I said last time....these are lagging indicators, not predictive.

[OHweather]

Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that.

[michsnowfreak]

Wow this nature signs thing really stirred up a lot of analysis. I have no idea what/why/how this and this and this means a mild winter is coming or this and this and this means a cold winter is coming. Its like the groundhog seeing its shadow (which is entirely dependent on whether its sunny or cloudy in Punxatawney, PA on Feb 2nd). These are centuries old traditions/wives tales/etc that have been used as indicators for the coming winter. I don't think any forecaster puts any stock into them. All I know is that every year in late summer and early Fall, a few certainties exist pertaining to the coming winter. The farmers almanac will come out patting itself on the back for its excellent forecast the year before, NOAA will have to edit the year to the present on their annual copy and paste of a warmer than normal winter forecast, and wooly worms, squirrel tails, astronomy signs, beaver huts, etc will be analyzed by those who put stock in them

[michsnowfreak]

Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that

I was wondering the same thing. It seems like some of it is put in the winter thread and some in the November thread.

[Stebo]

Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that.

Yes, if you'd like to do the honors of starting one that would be a good idea.

[DaveNay]

Wow this nature signs thing really stirred up a lot of analysis. I have no idea what/why/how this and this and this means a mild winter is coming or this and this and this means a cold winter is coming. Its like the groundhog seeing its shadow (which is entirely dependent on whether its sunny or cloudy in Punxatawney, PA on Feb 2nd). These are centuries old traditions/wives tales/etc that have been used as indicators for the coming winter. I don't think any forecaster puts any stock into them. All I know is that every year in late summer and early Fall, a few certainties exist pertaining to the coming winter. The farmers almanac will come out patting itself on the back for its excellent forecast the year before, NOAA will have to edit the year to the present on their annual copy and paste of a warmer than normal winter forecast, and wooly worms, squirrel tails, astronomy signs, beaver huts, etc will be analyzed by those who put stock in them

 

Because it's boring right now and we need something to talk about? 

[OHweather]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47250-winter-2015-16-medium-long-range-discussion/

[Powerball]

Because it's boring right now and we need something to talk about? 

 

^^^This.

[DaveNay]

You did a good job explaining selection pressure, however selecting for a trait like hair length in a local population does not happen anywhere near that fast. 

 

My example was obviously very simplified as well as exaggerated.

[sokolow]

Imagine this same discussison playing out 60 years ago in a senator's office:

From

5.6 “OLD INDIAN WAYS” OF KNOWING THE WEATHER: WEATHER PREDICTIONS FOR THE WINTERS OF 1950-51 AND 1951-52

Randy A. Peppler *

University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/143684.pdf

. INTRODUCTION

In September 1950, U.S. Senator Robert S. Kerr (D-Oklahoma) wrote to Indian leaders across the U.S. in order to “make some determination with regard to whether or not we are going to have an early winter and whether or not we may expect a hard winter.” Even though he had access to U.S. Weather Bureau predictions and other scientific data, Kerr and his Administrative Assistant, Ben Dwight, a Choctaw Indian and onetime Principal Chief of that Nation, wrote to Indian leaders that they had a “high regard for the old Indian ways of determining such things – because they are practical and have always been able to make some very accurate predictions.” A few responses were received (e.g., Fig. 1). Based on this response, from Roly Canard – the Principal Chief of the Creek Nation in Oklahoma – a follow-up letter-writing campaign was made in fall 1951 for the upcoming winter, producing more responses, especially from outside of Oklahoma

[sokolow]

Here is the Figure 1:

[sokolow]

Friend of mine works on local & indigenous knowledges and she notes this kind of stuff is really contentious and difficult for numerous of reasons. Put shortly, one of the issues at stake is there's always the risk that the persons -- usually outsiders -- doing conventional science are going to home straight in on a reductive judgment about whether the local knowledge has "scientific" value in this case that is to say I suppose, predictive value or skill.

If it does, then someone's probably going to go make money or a career, or formulate policy off of it, and not necessarily share the credit or benefit.

So ferinstance, Brazil has a bioresearch framework that requires companies and institutes doing studies on forest products for e.g. drug development -- kind of an outgrowth of ethnobotany -- share the benefit through various avenues. And they're always dragging Pfizer or whoever into court to make em pay.

A very prominent historical episode of this kind of thing would be quinine.

If it doesn't "work" then, well, it can get written off as a hilarious native or yokel farmer's almanac type primitive superstition; ha ha ha "spider webbs" etc.

In practice seasonal & climatic decision making processes involving nature signs like phenology turn out to be complex and involve a whole bunch of factors, including social, religious, and economic ones -- this is widely true, and not just for so-called traditional societies.

It also lends itself to derision from self-proclaimed disinterested observers who have prescriptive policies in hand. Think about what would go into being a consultant trying to convince a municipality to restrict new builds in a avalanche or landslide zone, or trying to get people to relocate out of floodplains and wildfire risk areas, and how easy it is to declare people to be irrational and stupid for not wanting to move right out of their burntrap mountain communities in Inferno Gulch, CA.

[RogueWaves]

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

 

Yoda? Idk, but the lag theory busts since the same indicators were present going into 2013-14

[ClicheVortex2014]

About 3.5 months ago, WSI posted about a correlation between strong July blocking and DJF blocking. Of course, we saw the second strongest blocking on record this July. With December only 10 days away, I thought I'd see what we should expect for December, assuming the correlation exists. 

 

After some digging, I found the years that had top 10 strongest July blocks... and each of the following DJFs had a mean -NAO.

 

December 1950: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/2NTlVujXl3.png

December 1958: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/U8eZ3FVvr8.png

December 2000:  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/KpCyr6tiHJ.png

December 1957: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/WZOG3pjIi1.png

December 1980: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/YzcAhg5gqT.png

December 1960: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/LywvZcPacN.png

December 1978: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/xWEB6LrRKz.png

December 1962: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/0MaVI8GcJJ.png

December 2009: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/aeJYw1nna6.png

 

If you don't feel like clicking on each link, most Decembers featured rather strong blocking. The only exceptions are 1957 (strong +NAO), 1980 (east-based +NAO), and 1960 (moderate +NAO).

 

Average of all the years

 

Keep in mind, WSI's correlation only focuses on the NAO.

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS and Euro ensembles have the death vortex showing up by day 10. Such a classic early winter-Nino look. Feels surreal to see this kind of pattern after spending so many months forecasting and tracking this Nino.  It's gonna be just as weird to watch it collapse.

 

[chasmosnow]

GFS and Euro ensembles have the death vortex showing up by day 10. Such a classic early winter-Nino look. Feels surreal to see this kind of pattern after spending so many months forecasting and tracking this Nino.  It's gonna be just as weird to watch it collapse.

 

 

 

 Yes, the dreaded El Nino is upon us! SSW may be our only hope.

[Hoosier]

Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

[michsnowfreak]

Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

Agree, especially to the bolded. Warmer than average does not mean no fun. This could simultaneously be one of the warmest AND snowiest Novembers on record for some locations in this region. Doesnt have a ring to it, does it lol?

[ClicheVortex2014]

 Yes, the dreaded El Nino is upon us! SSW may be our only hope.

If the GOA low retrogrades as expected, then you might not even need a SSW to save the day. It'd certainly help though.

[buckeye]

Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

 

Yea right ,   c'mon man who do you think you're talking to here?   That's like taking a hit off a crack pipe and saying, "wow, I'm good for a couple months now".