Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[QcSevereWx]

 

Wasn't 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada?

winter 2011-2012 was very warm in Montréal.

December +2.8c

January +2.3c

February +2.9c

March +5.1c

 

[Rainman]

Verbatim, the 12z EURO towards the end of its run actually had a modest snowstorm / snow event for the subforum.

 

It looks that way at first, but surface dewpoints are all above freezing south of I-69.  That is never a good sign.

[Rainman]

Maybe I'm just interpreting the concerns wrong. I thought they were saying something along the lines of "if Canada is warmer than average, where will the cold air come from?", as in questioning the ability of the source region to produce cold enough air. 

 

You're interpreting anomalies wrong.  It isn't correct to simply raise Canada +5 degrees and then place that airmass on top of us.  It is better to think of advection of anomalies in that case.  That way you automatically include the climatological modification of airmasses as they move south.  If you use that framework to think about it, then it becomes clear that if all of Canada is warmer than normal, then Michigan is warmer than normal because the cold airmasses behind our winter cold fronts are warmer than normal.

[michsnowfreak]

As for this NAO talk. While in these very beginning stages of winter, a -NAO is eye candy....for much of winter, a very -NAO will not do much of our subforum good wrt good snowstorms. neautral or +NAO is often better for snowstorms for much of the region. -NAO, of course, is good for cold.

[ClicheVortex2014]

You're interpreting anomalies wrong.  It isn't correct to simply raise Canada +5 degrees and then place that airmass on top of us.  It is better to think of advection of anomalies in that case.  That way you automatically include the climatological modification of airmasses as they move south.  If you use that framework to think about it, then it becomes clear that if all of Canada is warmer than normal, then Michigan is warmer than normal because the cold airmasses behind our winter cold fronts are warmer than normal.

Okay that makes sense

[Gilbertfly]

Liquid still freezes at the same temp no matter what the baseline for anomalies are...so it does play a factor as to what the anomaly difference is here compared to Canada...

IE..Canada could still have a plus 5 anomaly...but if that anomaly doesn't eat into a snowpack then the highway remains open for cold air intrusion...vs. No snowpack where arctic air has a tougher time progressing southward.

I'm on the books for an above average temp differential in the area myself...so it really makes no difference to me. For me the important factor when looking at anomalies at varrying lattitudes is what the net affect is to the snowpack.

If the average for a particular spot in Canada is 22 and a plus 5 anomaly puts it at 27....then there is still plenty of wiggle room to make a decent snowpack. If the average is 28 and plus 5 makes it 33...then some troubles could arise for maintaining snowpack to assist in cold air transport to our lattitude

[Stebo]

Liquid still freezes at the same temp no matter what the baseline for anomalies are...so it does play a factor as to what the anomaly difference is here compared to Canada...

IE..Canada could still have a plus 5 anomaly...but if that anomaly doesn't eat into a snowpack then the highway remains open for cold air intrusion...vs. No snowpack where arctic air has a tougher time progressing southward.

I'm on the books for an above average temp differential in the area myself...so it really makes no difference to me. For me the important factor when looking at anomalies at varrying lattitudes is what the net affect is to the snowpack.

If the average for a particular spot in Canada is 22 and a plus 5 anomaly puts it at 27....then there is still plenty of wiggle room to make a decent snowpack. If the average is 28 and plus 5 makes it 33...then some troubles could arise for maintaining snowpack to assist in cold air transport to our lattitude

Yeah see the problem is with such high positive anomalies up in Canada, it would affect the snow pack there especially downwind of the Rockies. Also if the Arctic jet remains to the north there, south of that jet in Canada you'd have a westerly wind which would downslope off the Rockies and provide even more relative warm air. Again think back to 2011-12 similar effect happened, not saying it will be like that year but the longer the Arctic jet is up there and remains up there the better the chances are of prolonged relative warmth in our source region.

[Gilbertfly]

Yeah Stebo....that downslope is gonna kick some snowpack arse this year imo unfortunately...

The door does seem to be open for now for some nice troughiness which could make for some fun trackers...and the inevitable winners and losers system to system.

My bar is set pretty low for temp expectations for now...but he bar is rising a bit in terms of some fun trackers. From there the snowfall departures would fall like darts on a board...some winners and losers.

On a lighter note...I noticed my first "high in the sky" flock of geese heading south...so no matter what we think....they think it's time to start heading to warmer areas lol

[Hoosier]

As for this NAO talk. While in these very beginning stages of winter, a -NAO is eye candy....for much of winter, a very -NAO will not do much of our subforum good wrt good snowstorms. neautral or +NAO is often better for snowstorms for much of the region. -NAO, of course, is good for cold.

 

 

It's not bad to have it oscillating either in terms of storminess.

[Hoosier]

Found a Canadian temperature anomaly map from DJF 2009-10:

 

 

 

That is about 95% of the country that is warmer than average.  Here are US temps:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not saying I'd want to roll the dice with a Canada blowtorch or that another outcome like 2009-10 would happen this winter, but it shows that it's possible to have a very mild Canada and a not so mild US.

[Gilbertfly]

Interesting Hoosier....and that could potentially dovetail a little bit with what I am saying....if that anamoly is still below freezing, then the snowpack can potentially remain...

Not withstanding the points Stebo brought up about particular locations of where snowpack remains or gets pummeled. And I also understand there are numerous other factors including jet alignment and such...so it's not just cut and dry

[csnavywx]

Liquid still freezes at the same temp no matter what the baseline for anomalies are...so it does play a factor as to what the anomaly difference is here compared to Canada...

IE..Canada could still have a plus 5 anomaly...but if that anomaly doesn't eat into a snowpack then the highway remains open for cold air intrusion...vs. No snowpack where arctic air has a tougher time progressing southward.

I'm on the books for an above average temp differential in the area myself...so it really makes no difference to me. For me the important factor when looking at anomalies at varrying lattitudes is what the net affect is to the snowpack.

If the average for a particular spot in Canada is 22 and a plus 5 anomaly puts it at 27....then there is still plenty of wiggle room to make a decent snowpack. If the average is 28 and plus 5 makes it 33...then some troubles could arise for maintaining snowpack to assist in cold air transport to our lattitude

Except this is a very linear (and incorrect) way to use temperature anomalies. I see the same arguments from folks arguing that a +2C global temperature anomaly from global warming "won't be a big deal". A +5 anomaly also means there's a significant chance that at any point in that month, there's a much higher than normal chance for the temperature to go above freezing and melt any in-situ snowcover. The +5 is best viewed as an increase to the mean of the temperature distribution for that month.

[OHweather]

Found a Canadian temperature anomaly map from DJF 2009-10:

canada.png

That is about 95% of the country that is warmer than average. Here are US temps:

2009-10.png

I'm not saying I'd want to roll the dice with a Canada blowtorch or that another outcome like 2009-10 would happen this winter, but it shows that it's possible to have a very mild Canada and a not so mild US.

I'd have to think that having snow pack between us and the colder air is important. +5 anomalies in Canada would probably not result in that much cold in the U.S. as they came south if there wasn't snow pack to limit how much those temps modify. But I don't remember how much snow pack there was in southern Canada that winter off the top of my head.

[JoMo]

Found a Canadian temperature anomaly map from DJF 2009-10:

 

 

 

That is about 95% of the country that is warmer than average.  Here are US temps:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not saying I'd want to roll the dice with a Canada blowtorch or that another outcome like 2009-10 would happen this winter, but it shows that it's possible to have a very mild Canada and a not so mild US.

 

 

Winter 2009/2010 had a lot of blocking if I remember correctly. I think there was a record -NAO or -AO that winter. That shoved the cold air south. If we don't get the blocking and have a +AO/+NAO this winter with the stronger El Nino, I'd expect it to be warmer.

[Hoosier]

Winter 2009/2010 had a lot of blocking if I remember correctly. I think there was a record -NAO or -AO that winter. That shoved the cold air south. If we don't get the blocking and have a +AO/+NAO this winter with the stronger El Nino, I'd expect it to be warmer.

 

Yeah, it was a record -AO.  Exactly why I wouldn't want to roll the dice this time around lol.  Just throwing it out there.

[Gilbertfly]

Except this is a very linear (and incorrect) way to use temperature anomalies. I see the same arguments from folks arguing that a +2C global temperature anomaly from global warming "won't be a big deal". A +5 anomaly also means there's a significant chance that at any point in that month, there's a much higher than normal chance for the temperature to go above freezing and melt any in-situ snowcover. The +5 is best viewed as an increase to the mean of the temperature distribution for that month.

But that doesn't change the fact that the freezing temperature is 32 degrees...which was my point. I don't care if the anomaly is plus 20....if that still nets a below freezing temp average, than snowcover can be maintained better.

[michsnowfreak]

But that doesn't change the fact that the freezing temperature is 32 degrees...which was my point. I don't care if the anomaly is plus 20....if that still nets a below freezing temp average, than snowcover can be maintained better.

This is a good point. The averages way up in Canada are outrageously cold. So a torch is still below 32F. Not sure about npw but I know NA snowcover had been running above normal earlier this Fall.

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah Stebo....that downslope is gonna kick some snowpack arse this year imo unfortunately...

The door does seem to be open for now for some nice troughiness which could make for some fun trackers...and the inevitable winners and losers system to system.

My bar is set pretty low for temp expectations for now...but he bar is rising a bit in terms of some fun trackers. From there the snowfall departures would fall like darts on a board...some winners and losers.

On a lighter note...I noticed my first "high in the sky" flock of geese heading south...so no matter what we think....they think it's time to start heading to warmer areas lol

Not surprising about the geese. The nature signs have been gung-ho on a hard winter. Before i get jumped on I am NOT NOT NOT saying that means a hard winter this year. I do think that the end result will still be mild (a raging Nino plus we are due for a milder winter) but with plenty of wintry bouts. But it's just interesting that those old school methods (thick deer skins, fat squirrels tails, acorn production, webworms, & on and on and on) are almost unanimously pointing towards a harsh winter. A friend who is REALLY into the nature stuff is in shock at the signs that are abound. If this was the 1800s and we didn't have knowledge of enso, computer models, etc the Indians and "oldest inhabitants" would be fearing the worst.

[IWXwx]

Not surprising about the geese. The nature signs have been gung-ho on a hard winter. Before i get jumped on I am NOT NOT NOT saying that means a hard winter this year. I do think that the end result will still be mild (a raging Nino plus we are due for a milder winter) but with plenty of wintry bouts. But it's just interesting that those old school methods (thick deer skins, fat squirrels tails, acorn production, webworms, & on and on and on) are almost unanimously pointing towards a harsh winter. A friend who is REALLY into the nature stuff is in shock at the signs that are abound. If this was the 1800s and we didn't have knowledge of enso, computer models, etc the Indians and "oldest inhabitants" would be fearing the worst.

 

I'm not trying poo-poo the idea of nature signs, because I feel that there may be some credence to that evidence.  However, with the spate of harsher than normal winters lately, both for snow and cold, those signs could be natural evolutionary responses to those previous winters.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'd have to think that having snow pack between us and the colder air is important. +5 anomalies in Canada would probably not result in that much cold in the U.S. as they came south if there wasn't snow pack to limit how much those temps modify. But I don't remember how much snow pack there was in southern Canada that winter off the top of my head.

According to the Rutgers site, there was snowpack in Canada throughout DJF 2009-2010. South Canada's snowpack started to melt around the 22nd of March. The case was the same for 2011-2012, according to this site. Except there was at least 1 small period in which an extremely small area near the US border was snow free.

 

Note this site only tells you IF there is snowpack, not how much

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2009&ui_day=347&ui_set=0

[Stebo]

I'm not trying poo-poo the idea of nature signs, because I feel that there may be some credence to that evidence. However, with the spate of harsher than normal winters lately, both for snow and cold, those signs could be natural evolutionary responses to those previous winters.

Very valid point.

[DaveNay]

I'm not trying poo-poo the idea of nature signs, because I feel that there may be some credence to that evidence.  However, with the spate of harsher than normal winters lately, both for snow and cold, those signs could be natural evolutionary responses to those previous winters.

 

My personal belief is that nature indicators are for the most part "lagging indicators." The previous two winters have indeed been quite harsh from the POV of a wild animal or bird, therefore they have some sort of built in mechanism that causes them to prepare for another harsh winter.

[harrisale]

I'm not trying poo-poo the idea of nature signs, because I feel that there may be some credence to that evidence.  However, with the spate of harsher than normal winters lately, both for snow and cold, those signs could be natural evolutionary responses to those previous winters.

 

Thinking this is the case. A biological response to the last two harsh winters. Animals don't forget!

[Gilbertfly]

I think animals are more instinctual than reactionary...their instincts would not just look to the last few winters...if their adaptations were based on a year or 2 I think that would not bode well for the longevity of existance of a species. But I never really thought of that angle on the topic...interesting talking point!

In the folklore file....out at the farm in NW IL...the Japanese beetles have started building their little winter dwellings. As was the case the last few winters, they are building their clumps not just inside the garages or outbuildings....but on interior walls in these buildings. Folklore says that the more barriers they put between themselves and the outside, the harsher the winter will be (I'm pretty sure that legit modern studies have been done on this too fwiw)...this would go against my thoughts on a little warmer than average winter....but whatever...just fwiw

[Hoosier]

I'm a believer in the animal stuff to some degree...would I use it to make a forecast?  No.

 

Let's say there is some predictive value with animal behavior...how do we know how to interpret it?  Like, does it mean the whole winter is cold or do we just get a really cold month?

[Hoosier]

Meanwhile, the CFS continues to blast away at December.  I give it points for consistency at least.

 

 

[csnavywx]

Makes sense. There's some signal for a cooldown at the end of Nov into early Dec, but with the stratospheric PV still strengthening (and already quite strong for Nov), it will probably be several weeks before Nino and Siberian snowcover to weaken and break it down.

 

If it instead continues to strengthens into "black hole" territory or stays strong through Mid-Dec, the rest of winter will be in trouble.

[Jonger]

I'm a believer in the animal stuff to some degree...would I use it to make a forecast? No.

Let's say there is some predictive value with animal behavior...how do we know how to interpret it? Like, does it mean the whole winter is cold or do we just get a really cold month?

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

[Hoosier]

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

 

 

I couldn't tell you the mechanism.  Perhaps it doesn't even exist, but I'm open minded to the possibility that there's stuff we haven't figured out.

 

Different but sort of related...there's been some interesting research into the idea that animals can sense earthquakes in advance.  I'm not talking about seconds/minutes, but many days and weeks.  Nothing has been proven as far as I know but there's some theories (changes in the ionosphere being one). 

[Rainman]

I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

 

Agree.  There has never been anything beyond anecdotes.  I wouldn't say it isn't possible, but I would say there's probably no reason to ever talk about it.