michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Oops I didn't realize I linked JFM. here is DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just a simple MR/LR observation, but there seems to be a lack of sustained cold air available for the subforum. The difference between last Nov and this one is well defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 JAMSTEC UPDATE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 JAMSTEC UPDATE It's gotten drier in the Midwest/ov but also the cold has crept north. Much closer to NASA (but the cold not AS far north). The cfs is most certainly on its own wrt a torch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Noticed that there has been quite a bit of warming south of Alaska over the last 7 days. Pockets of warming and cooling over the el Niño region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 way to textbook. this is where these models fail. Well...it's just guidance. JAMSTEC's NOV forecast for DJF has given the correct "general" idea or hints for 6 out of the last 8 N. Americam winters. Missed badly only for winter of 2010-11 & 2012-13. I don't know of another seasonal model that has done that. So...no its NOT to be taken as gospel, but I'd pay attention to the hints, especially with all the other major seasonal models in general agreement. Only the CRAPPY CFS v. 2 stands alone for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Well...it's just guidance. JAMSTEC's NOV forecast for DJF has given the correct "general" idea or hints for 6 out of the last 8 N. Americam winters. Missed badly only for winter of 2010-11 & 2012-13. I don't know of another seasonal model that has done that. So...no its NOT to be taken as gospel, but I'd pay attention to the hints, especially with all the other major seasonal models in general agreement. Only the CRAPPY CFS v. 2 stands alone for this winter. Not to mention the Jamstec does have its month to month slight variations when it updates, it's not like it's a carbon copy deal month to month. And you hit the nail on the head regarding the CFS being alone. What was the CFS forecasting last November for winter 2014-15? A MILD winter in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 The GEOS5 is an outlier for December: Prob fcst NCEP_CFSv2 CMC1_CanCM3 CMC2_CanCM4 GFDL_FLORGFDL_CM2.1 NCAR_CCSM4 NASA_GEOS5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It doesn't change much for the entire winter -- only the CMC2 follows it somewhat. The NMME average for DJF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It doesn't change much for the entire winter -- only the CMC2 follows it somewhat. The NMME average for DJF: JAN FEB MAR That's a lot of change. Notice the ridge is over E. Canada during DEC but begins to be pulled west in JAN & even more in FEB & MAR which the above normal anomalies indicate. The only model that's really out there on it's lonesome is the sucky CFS v.2. That's a good forecast since that's exactly what some of the best analog packages show that have the strongest Nino's all the way back to 1896. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 JAN FEB MAR That's a lot of change. Notice the ridge is over E. Canada during DEC but begins to be pulled west in JAN & even more in FEB & MAR which the above normal anomalies indicate. The only model that's really out there on it's lonesome is the sucky CFS v.2. That's a good forecast since that's exactly what some of the best analog packages show that have the strongest Nino's all the way back to 1896. Another thing to remember is to always look at the grid. It's easy to see reds and blues and make assumptions. Several models show modestly mild....cfs shows all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 CFS shows hellfire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Certainly doesn't look like the CFS is alone with an above normal winter for the midwest. Starting to look more like that NASA forecast is alone on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 CFS shows hellfire Hell Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Certainly doesn't look like the CFS is alone with an above normal winter for the midwest. Starting to look more like that NASA forecast is alone on an island. Virtually all of the seasonal models that I've checked are warmer than average to some degree for the Lakes. Most are more modest and not torches for the DJF period, but with the skill of the seasonal models, I don't think anything should be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Jam. Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 global torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Certainly doesn't look like the CFS is alone with an above normal winter for the midwest. Starting to look more like that NASA forecast is alone on an island.The cfs is certainly not alone in forecasting above normal temps in the midwest this winter. It is alone in how far above normal the temps are that it is forecasting. A lot of models forecast things in the +0.5 to +2C range....cfs is forecasting +3 to 5C.The jamstec shows slightly mild while nasa cold, but the jamstec look is a lot closer to NASA than cfs. I'm not worried about a mild winter. I'm more worried about precip. We can get plenty of snow in a mild winter or be dry in a cold winter. Mild doesn't scare me ..dry does lol. Or should I say the COMBINATION of mild and dry. A dry tundra winter like last year is at least covered in snow. Mild and dry is meh. Luckily a stormy pattern appears to be setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Certainly doesn't look like the CFS is alone with an above normal winter for the midwest. Starting to look more like that NASA forecast is alone on an island. The CFS is all alone for the DJF forecast for the CONUS...not just one region. UKMET, JAMSTEC, EURO, NMME, CMC, GFDL , CMC are all at odds with the CFS with important features...for the CONUS, not just your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The CFS is all alone for the DJF forecast for the CONUS...not just one region. UKMET, JAMSTEC, EURO, NMME, CMC, GFDL , CMC are all at odds with the CFS with important features...for the CONUS, not just your backyard. Yes I know it is warm for KY and you want snow. By the way right now the CFS is leading the charge with this current month so far so it isn't exactly clueless like some would want to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yes I know it is warm for KY and you want snow. By the way right now the CFS is leading the charge with this current month so far so it isn't exactly clueless like some would want to say. Its monthly forecasts usually aren't bad (especially once you get toward the end of the preceding month) but I'm not so sure about the track record of the seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 global torch I'll check in around January 15th to see if a 6" slop storm is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Its monthly forecasts usually aren't bad (especially once you get toward the end of the preceding month) but I'm not so sure about the track record of the seasonal. Well I'm sure you seen the CFS for Dec, if that is how we start this winter, it is going to take a bit to get back to even near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yes I know it is warm for KY and you want snow. By the way right now the CFS is leading the charge with this current month so far so it isn't exactly clueless like some would want to say. It's has nothing to do with what I want. Just go look through it's track from previous winters. If I really thought this would be a blowtorch winter I'd say so. The strongest Ninos since 1896 do not suggest an all out torch for the entire winter. Tell me one reason besides the CFS v.2 we should expect a winter depicted by the CFS v.2. Until you can do that please do not accuse me of wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 One thing I like is that it doesn't appear like we will have to worry too much about suppression going forward this month and into December. I think we will have our share of activity, though cold air/storm track could be a problem and it's possible that the Plains are more favored for wintry weather than most of us. However, that potential system out around day 9-10 should be watched for a possible accumulating synoptic snow in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Well I'm sure you seen the CFS for Dec, if that is how we start this winter, it is going to take a bit to get back to even near normal. Yes, I follow it. December being warmer than average wouldn't really be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yes, I follow it. December being warmer than average wouldn't really be a surprise. I'm talking more the magnitude of the warmth, it is getting warmer as we get closer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yes, I follow it. December being warmer than average wouldn't really be a surprise.A milder than normal December is kind of expected. If there's one kind of "consensus" we can get from the plethora of models and forecasts it's that December will be the warmest month of winter and February the coldest. There's no way to spin it though, cfs is an outlier with HOW warm it shows winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm talking more the magnitude of the warmth, it is getting warmer as we get closer too. Even well above average wouldn't be shocking, at least not imo. I'm basically treating December as a bonus month this winter...if it snows a lot, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Well I'm sure you seen the CFS for Dec, if that is how we start this winter, it is going to take a bit to get back to even near normal. Here's nothing but the strongest El Nino winters since 1896. Here's the JFM temps: It seems one would have historical support to assume the CFS v.2 is wrong & most of the other guidance is closer to reality. Many of the other seasonal models have a look that's a little closer to what that analog blend looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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