Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

From here:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201510/carealtime.html

 

Found it not that long ago.  Don't really know much about it.

 

By the way, if you have time, can you run the stats for Detroit as far as September, October, and November all being warmer than average (each month being +, not the Sep-Nov composite) and the following winter temperatures.  Would be curious to see if there's any correlation as I found with Chicago.

I will look it up when I get a chance

[Stebo]

Locally there is a slight correlation to warm Novembers and below normal snow, but not a strong one.

 

Longterm avg snow at Detroit ~41"

 

Top 20 warmest Novembers and that winters snowfall

1931 – 26.2”

2001 – 33.7”

1902 – 51.3”

1975 – 55.9”

2011 – 26.0”

1963 – 32.5”

1948 – 13.7”

1994 – 33.5”

2009 – 43.7”

1999 – 23.7”

1964 – 49.2”

1909 – 46.8”

1953 – 40.0”

2003 – 24.1”

1883 – 50.3”

1990 – 31.4”

1946 – 30.0”

1998 – 49.5”

1934 – 32.2”

1960 – 18.0”

The thing is, I see no real blockbusters here and a lot of really big duds. I think the correlation is a lot bigger when you look at it that way.

[Rainman]

Here is the link to precip and temp anomalies from the various models (the "NMME"..cfs, gfdl, nasa, etc)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

 

While I'm at it, here's more stuff for anyone who doesn't know:

 

Tropical Tidbits has the CanSIPS now (they also have the CFS in there)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015110100&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=490

 

IRI

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

 

Jamstec

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

 

And just for the heck of it, here's Week 2 from the NAEFS

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/poeabn_h264.00.gif

[michsnowfreak]

The thing is, I see no real blockbusters here and a lot of really big duds. I think the correlation is a lot bigger when you look at it that way.

Decided to add the following winters temp too. I see what your saying, but I dont really think thats enough of anything to say theres any correlation. I dont care how warm (or cold) November is, its hard to say a month that averages 1.4" of the seasons 42.5" average has such a big say .

 

1931 – 26.2” -- 35.7F

2001 – 33.7” -- 33.8F

1902 – 51.3” -- 25.5F

1975 – 55.9” -- 26.1F

2011 – 26.0” -- 33.0F

1963 – 32.5” -- 27.7F

1948 – 13.7” -- 31.3F

1994 – 33.5” -- 29.7F

2009 – 43.7” -- 27.4F

1999 – 23.7” -- 29.4F

1964 – 49.2” -- 27.5F

1909 – 46.8” -- 23.5F

1953 – 40.0” -- 31.0F

2003 – 24.1” -- 27.2F

1883 – 50.3” -- 28.1F

1990 – 31.4” -- 29.6F

1946 – 30.0” -- 28.2F

1998 – 49.5” -- 30.3F

1934 – 32.2” -- 25.1F

1960 – 18.0” -- 26.2F

[Powerball]

I wonder if this will be a winter of cut off lows.  Deep sharp troughs cutting off in the midsection of the country and creating odd ball storm systems where you get snow to the south and rain to the north.   Thinking of Feb '98 for instance.

 

It's been a long time since we've had a decent cut off / vertically-stacked Winter Storm in our neck of the woods. February 26, 2013 was the closest thing we've had to one.

 

They're the type of storms that produce the heavy duty precip amounts and precipitation rates, so I'm all for it. It will be a nice change of pace from the sheared out/positive tilt POS storms that have generally been the reoccurring theme since GHD 1.

[michsnowfreak]

From here:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201510/carealtime.html

 

Found it not that long ago.  Don't really know much about it.

 

By the way, if you have time, can you run the stats for Detroit as far as September, October, and November all being warmer than average (each month being +, not the Sep-Nov composite) and the following winter temperatures.  Would be curious to see if there's any correlation as I found with Chicago.

The results are in....

It was a surprisingly small sample size. A them I found was numerous years where Sept & Oct torched then it cooled down big time in Nov.

 

Here are all the years where Sept, Oct, & Nov ALL posted a + departure for temps (again, doesnt necessarily have correlation with warmest Falls as that is about avg temp).

 

The year where SON were each +, then that following winters avg temp & total snow. If I left the temp or snow black it meant it was near "average", which I went +/- 0.5F for temp and +/- 1.0" for snow.

 

1881 – 36.9F – 13.2”

1915 – 26.6F – 46.0”

1922 – 22.1F – 56.9”

1927 – 28.0F – 30.3”

1931 – 35.7F – 26.2”

1941 – 28.2F – 23.4”

1944 – 23.3F – 25.8”

1946 – 28.2F – 30.0”

1953 – 31.0F – 40.0”

1960 – 26.2F – 18.0”

1994 – 29.7F – 33.5”

1998 – 30.3F – 49.5”

2004 – 27.4F – 63.8”

2005 – 30.3F – 36.3”

2010 – 24.1F – 69.1"

 

Cant remember exactly what your results were for Chicago, but sounds like more mixed at Detroit.

[Hoosier]

The results are in....

It was a surprisingly small sample size. A them I found was numerous years where Sept & Oct torched then it cooled down big time in Nov.

 

Here are all the years where Sept, Oct, & Nov ALL posted a + departure for temps (again, doesnt necessarily have correlation with warmest Falls as that is about avg temp).

 

The year where SON were each +, then that following winters avg temp & total snow. If I left the temp or snow black it meant it was near "average", which I went +/- 0.5F for temp and +/- 1.0" for snow.

 

1881 – 36.9F – 13.2”

1915 – 26.6F – 46.0”

1922 – 22.1F – 56.9”

1927 – 28.0F – 30.3”

1931 – 35.7F – 26.2”

1941 – 28.2F – 23.4”

1944 – 23.3F – 25.8”

1946 – 28.2F – 30.0”

1953 – 31.0F – 40.0”

1960 – 26.2F – 18.0”

1994 – 29.7F – 33.5”

1998 – 30.3F – 49.5”

2004 – 27.4F – 63.8”

2005 – 30.3F – 36.3”

2010 – 24.1F – 69.1"

 

Cant remember exactly what your results were for Chicago, but sounds like more mixed at Detroit.

 

 

The snow results are similar (I think I came up with like 62% of the following winters having below average snow, though this correlation, which is not very strong to begin with, has really not held up in the last several decades) but the temperature results do appear more mixed than what I came up with for Chicago.  However, I didn't classify anything as near average, it was either above or below, so it's a bit hard to tell.  What is Detroit's average DJF temperature? 

[michsnowfreak]

The snow results are similar (I think I came up with like 62% of the following winters having below average snow, though this correlation, which is not very strong to begin with, has really not held up in the last several decades) but the temperature results do appear more mixed than what I came up with for Chicago. However, I didn't classify anything as near average, it was either above or below, so it's a bit hard to tell. What is Detroit's average DJF temperature?

27.9F

[The_Global_Warmer]

The nino is going ape ****.

[Hoosier]

Yeah, next week's update will be interesting.

[michsnowfreak]

Hoosier I forgot to ask...with those cfs graphs, what is the equivalent of an anomaly in "K" (compared to C/F)?

[WestMichigan]

K and C are that same scale just offset by 273.15 degrees.

[michsnowfreak]

K and C are that same scale just offset by 273.15 degrees.

Ah thanks. So essentially it's like looking at C for all intents and purposes.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ah thanks. So essentially it's like looking at C for all intents and purposes.

Yeah, for example, a 4 K anomaly is the same difference as a 4C anomaly

[RogueWaves]

The thing is, I see no real blockbusters here and a lot of really big duds. I think the correlation is a lot bigger when you look at it that way.

 

Good thing it's only the 5th 6th, lotz of November to go..

[Stebo]

Good thing it's only the 5th 6th, lotz of November to go..

No that is true but right now DTW is running a +12.5 through 5 days, that is a big departure that is going to take a while to knock down. With no real cold weather on the horizon we could carry normal to above normal to the 20th at that point we'd need the Arctic to come down to balance that warmth out in any appreciable fashion.

[buckeye]

The nino is going ape ****.

 

is it correct that if we start to cool the waters in the gulf of Alaska....  it'll be katy bar the torch door?

[dan123]

is it correct that if we start to cool the waters in the gulf of Alaska....  it'll be katy bar the torch door?

Classic buckeye

[michsnowfreak]

No that is true but right now DTW is running a +12.5 through 5 days, that is a big departure that is going to take a while to knock down. With no real cold weather on the horizon we could carry normal to above normal to the 20th at that point we'd need the Arctic to come down to balance that warmth out in any appreciable fashion.

The correlation is minor at best, and that's only looking at the top 20 warmest Movembers. It would be interesting to look at ALL warmer than normal novembers. I will if I have time this weekend.

[buckeye]

Classic buckeye

 

oh yea baby get ready for it, the season hasn't even officially kicked off yet.... 

 

...now back to my torch question

[IWXwx]

The correlation is minor at best, and that's only looking at the top 20 warmest Movembers. It would be interesting to look at ALL warmer than normal novembers. I will if I have time this weekend.

 

I'm sure that was a typo, but it got me to thinking that at the rate this month is going, I may start calling it Mowvember since I've already mowed my grass once this month and if the warmth continues, I'm not done.

 

EDIT: Dude, I guess I'm really out of the loop. I just found out that Movember is a real thing, growing mustaches as a part of cancer awareness, but I'm still calling this Mowvember.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm not sure about Detroit and Chicago, but the Novembers of 1975, 1977 and 1978 opened up almost equally as warm to this November in Toronto and Ottawa and then went on to see very cold Januaries. The Decembers were average to slightly above average temperature-wise.

[Geos]

I'm not sure about Detroit and Chicago, but the Novembers of 1975, 1977 and 1978 opened up almost equally as warm to this November in Toronto and Ottawa and then went on to see very cold Januaries. The Decembers were average to slightly above average temperature-wise.

 

Yes on all years for Chicago. I'm sure Detroit was warm too.

 

1975, really warm 2nd-10th, 16-19th. high 60s

1977, opening three days quite warm, then also on the 8th and 9th.

1978, 1st-5th quite warm (mid 70s).

 

And each of those three years it was snowing and much colder the week of Thanksgiving.

[The_Global_Warmer]

is it correct that if we start to cool the waters in the gulf of Alaska.... it'll be katy bar the torch door?

Probably lots of overcast with average highs but warm lows.

Convection will be wall to wall along he equatorial pacific

So a ridiculous stj is likely

[michsnowfreak]

The correlation is minor at best, and that's only looking at the top 20 warmest Movembers. It would be interesting to look at ALL warmer than normal novembers. I will if I have time this weekend.

Of the top 50 warmest Novembers on record, 21 of the following winters saw above normal snowfall and 29 saw below normal. This included some blockbuster snow seasons and some disaster snow seasons. A slight correlation, but given that it is far from overwhelming and the tendency towards snowier winters this century, Id call it a wash. Side note on the changing of November & seasonal snowfall:

 

1880-2015: Avg Nov: 2.6", Avg Season 40.9"

 

1880-2000: Avg Nov: 2.8", Avg Season 39.7"

 

Select timeframes:

1930-1960: Avg Nov: 3.4", Avg Season 33.8"

               

2000-2015: Avg Nov: 1.0", Avg Season 48.6"

 

2007-2015: Avg Nov: 1.0", Avg Season 55.2"

[Hoosier]

 

 

[Rainman]

No that is true but right now DTW is running a +12.5 through 5 days, that is a big departure that is going to take a while to knock down. With no real cold weather on the horizon we could carry normal to above normal to the 20th at that point we'd need the Arctic to come down to balance that warmth out in any appreciable fashion.

 

That's just it.  If we're normal for the next 2 weeks, the monthly departure doesn't move.  We're going to finish November above normal easily.

[michsnowfreak]

NASA holds firm

[Geos]

NASA holds firm

 

Looks like a west based Greenland block with those positive departures in eastern Canada.

 

[Rainman]

I can believe that if the cold anomalies here are a result of late Feb and March.  To me, the 2mT anomalies look like an extension of the cold anomalies associated with the active southern storm track, not cold air displaced from Canada (because under what circumstances are Arctic intrusions warmer than normal in Marquette, but colder from Detroit south?  That's weird).

 

I could see this anomaly by late winter/early spring.  By then, a steady dose of Pacific lows may be sufficient to bring us below normal.

 

 

NASA holds firm