Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[stadiumwave]

Wondering about the EPO.  I have no idea how a possible strong Nino influences the EPO/makes it more or less likely to be negative (or neither).

 

If the strong Pacific & Alaskan ridges continue look for more of the same as 2013-14 & 2015-16 Nino or no Nino.  I think the El Nino will obviously influence storm track & dominate the precipitation as sub-tropical jet could play a huge role. But I'm thinking those massive ridges we keep getting the last few years over Alaska almost ensure cold air spilling into the lower 48.  Question is will that continue?  If it does...I could see some wild temperature swings in store.  When EPO goes deep negative we get the cold shots somewhere, when it goes positive we get blow torch.

 

AO & NAO is the wildcard as usual.  If we get a lot of blocking we could avoid the wild temp swings that seem unavoidable without the blocking between -EPO events...again, if that continues....and it will as long as that warm blob hangs out in the GOA.

[ClicheVortex2014]

If the strong Pacific & Alaskan ridges continue look for more of the same as 2013-14 & 2015-16 Nino or no Nino.  I think the El Nino will obviously influence storm track & dominate the precipitation as sub-tropical jet could play a huge role. But I'm thinking those massive ridges we keep getting the last few years over Alaska almost ensure cold air spilling into the lower 48.  Question is will that continue?  If it does...I could see some wild temperature swings in store.  When EPO goes deep negative we get the cold shots somewhere, when it goes positive we get blow torch.

 

AO & NAO is the wildcard as usual.  If we get a lot of blocking we could avoid the wild temp swings that seem unavoidable without the blocking between -EPO events...again, if that continues....and it will as long as that warm blob hangs out in the GOA.

The seasonal models (JAMSTEC, CFSv2, CA) are showing that the warm pool we have now should be gone for DJF... but a robust, yet weakening, +PDO remains. It'd be too little too late, but I like the prospect of a weak +PDO or even a -PDO for next tornado season.

 

I've filed that under "I'll believe it when I see it"

[andyhb]

+PDO strengthened in the NCDC data for June, not a good sign (although it's partially expected given the incoming mod-strong Nino).

[ClicheVortex2014]

+PDO strengthened in the NCDC data for June, not a good sign (although it's partially expected given the incoming mod-strong Nino).

Yeah the region has been fluctuating more than the GFS's fantasy range. It's kinda frustrating, and even more so since we have no clue what 'warning signs' to watch for. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

CFSv2's seasonal outlooks now go out to JFM. It maintains the mostly east-based Nino and a weakening +PDO... probably switches to negative by the time tornado season starts. Fun.

 

[stadiumwave]

CFSv2's seasonal outlooks now go out to JFM. It maintains the mostly east-based Nino and a weakening +PDO... probably switches to negative by the time tornado season starts. Fun.

 

 

 

Going by history it should switch to -PDO; however, even the extended in JFM still shows above normal anomalies on the coast which is a +PDO sig. The Pacific as a whole cools significantly.

[csnavywx]

If Nino 3.4 goes to 2.5+C like the CFS says, ENSO forcing >> all other forcing. It won't even be a match. Blowtorch city. Indeed, the models that take it over 2C show just that, a huge warm signal over central Canada and the Northern US.

 

Snow lovers had better pray that this somehow goes central-Pac based or comes in weaker or this winter will be basically over (for most of the subforum) before it begins. The only other way out that I can possibly think of is if we somehow end up with a brief period of insane -AO and -EPO. But even then, it'll be fighting a relentless subtropical jet.

[Hoosier]

If Nino 3.4 goes to 2.5+C like the CFS says, ENSO forcing >> all other forcing. It won't even be a match. Blowtorch city. Indeed, the models that take it over 2C show just that, a huge warm signal over central Canada and the Northern US.

Snow lovers had better pray that this somehow goes central-Pac based or comes in weaker or this winter will be basically over (for most of the subforum) before it begins. The only other way out that I can possibly think of is if we somehow end up with a brief period of insane -AO and -EPO. But even then, it'll be fighting a relentless subtropical jet.

Besides that, can always hope for a fluke event in an overall hostile pattern.

[ClicheVortex2014]

If Nino 3.4 goes to 2.5+C like the CFS says, ENSO forcing >> all other forcing. It won't even be a match. Blowtorch city. Indeed, the models that take it over 2C show just that, a huge warm signal over central Canada and the Northern US.

 

Snow lovers had better pray that this somehow goes central-Pac based or comes in weaker or this winter will be basically over (for most of the subforum) before it begins. The only other way out that I can possibly think of is if we somehow end up with a brief period of insane -AO and -EPO. But even then, it'll be fighting a relentless subtropical jet.

Just curious... why don't you guys think much of a central-based Nino? Because, as of right now, that's going against the majority of the models (CFSv2 is the only one that has an east-based Nino). Just curious what y'all are seeing.

[andyhb]

Just curious... why don't you guys think much of a central-based Nino this time 'round? Because, as of right now, that's going against the majority of the models (CFSv2 is the only one that has an east-based Nino). Just curious what you guys are seeing.

 

Well the strong WWB/MJO episode ongoing is going to shove more warm water eastward and Nino 1+2 is already very warm (warmer than any of the other regions). This argues for a basin-wide/east-based event vs. a Modoki/central-based.

 

Personally, it still seems a bit dubious to reach the craziness of the 97-98 event, although a strong Nino looks easily attainable. I really hope the PDO swings back in the other direction soon, or us here in the NW are going to be facing an increasingly critical drought situation (much like California).

[A-L-E-K]

we'll have a raging nino and cold NW flow will still find a way to dominate

[ClicheVortex2014]

Well the strong WWB/MJO episode ongoing is going to shove more warm water eastward and Nino 1+2 is already very warm (warmer than any of the other regions). This argues for a basin-wide/east-based event vs. a Modoki/central-based.

 

Personally, it still seems a bit dubious to reach the craziness of the 97-98 event, although a strong Nino looks easily attainable. I really hope the PDO swings back in the other direction soon, or us here in the NW are going to be facing an increasingly critical drought situation (much like California).

Pardon my ignorance, but what does a typical basin-wide strong Nino look like for DJF in North America? I know what all the other forms of Ninos/Ninas look like... except for that one.

 

As far as drought in your region... I hope not. But at least you don't have a dry season like the US west coast, where they average essentially no rain. But I share the same sentiment with you; I hope that at least the warm pool goes away. I hope I never see something like that in my life again... but at my age, that's not likely

[csnavywx]

Pardon my ignorance, but what does a typical basin-wide strong Nino look like for DJF in North America? I know what all the other forms of Ninos/Ninas look like... except for that one.

 

As far as drought in your region... I hope not. But at least you don't have a dry season like the US west coast, where they average essentially no rain. But I share the same sentiment with you; I hope that at least the warm pool goes away. I hope I never see something like that in my life again... but at my age, that's not likely

 

That's not even detrended, or it would be worse (climo period is 1980-2010). These are the only three times since 1950 (NOAA's record) that ENSO 3.4 has gone to 2.0 or above.

 

If you look carefully at a typical Modoki setup, you never see the 27C isotherm progress into the eastern basin. That's a critical feedback threshold for convection, that, when crossed for a long enough period of time (say 2-3 months) basically signals an east-based event due to the progressive weakening of the trades that it induces, which makes the warm pool easier to move east. A Modoki usually sports negative anomalies in Nino 1-2 (except during the initial stages), but I think we're getting past the point where that's even possible, especially with the massive ongoing MJO-assisted WWB that's set to propagate across the Pacific.

 

The only thing that's holding this Nino back at all has been a somewhat lackluster contribution from the South Central Pacific.

[A-L-E-K]

that would rule, we deserve a break

[buckeye]

that would rule, we deserve a break

 

got to admit, there would be something oddly nostalgic about a '97-'98 repeat.   

 

It's funny how you can remember winters like those almost as well if not better than the +snow/- temp winters.

[Hoosier]

got to admit, there would be something oddly nostalgic about a '97-'98 repeat.   

 

It's funny how you can remember winters like those almost as well if not better than the +snow/- temp winters.

 

 

imo, 97-98 was the winter where the general public became more aware of the term "El Nino."  It was hyped a lot and for good reason.  I even remember my great aunt mentioning it back then, except she pronounced it "El Meano" lol. 

 

Playing devil's advocate, the map that csnavy posted is only 3 years.  3 super Ninos in 65 years of records is not very many cases.  I know there are records going back prior to the NOAA cutoff -- do we know about any "super" Ninos pre-1950?

[kevlon62]

imo, 97-98 was the winter where the general public became more aware of the term "El Nino." It was hyped a lot and for good reason

Original air date 10/25/97 . . .

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/97/97delnino.phtml

[stadiumwave]

 

That's not even detrended, or it would be worse (climo period is 1980-2010). These are the only three times since 1950 (NOAA's record) that ENSO 3.4 has gone to 2.0 or above.

 

If you look carefully at a typical Modoki setup, you never see the 27C isotherm progress into the eastern basin. That's a critical feedback threshold for convection, that, when crossed for a long enough period of time (say 2-3 months) basically signals an east-based event due to the progressive weakening of the trades that it induces, which makes the warm pool easier to move east. A Modoki usually sports negative anomalies in Nino 1-2 (except during the initial stages), but I think we're getting past the point where that's even possible, especially with the massive ongoing MJO-assisted WWB that's set to propagate across the Pacific.

 

The only thing that's holding this Nino back at all has been a somewhat lackluster contribution from the South Central Pacific.

I keep saying....this isn't a Nino that you can just look at analogs & say...here's business ad usual. Until that warm blob in NPAC is gone persistent ridginging in Alaska & NW Canada are going to dominate winters...East-based, modoki...it will not matter, cold air will be forced south when EPO dives.

If warm blob remains, there will he large cold air intrusions in the lower 48 east of Rockies when -EPO/Ridging kicks in followed by blow torch when it relaxes.

If -NAO blocking occurs, which hasn't much the last 2 winters, then cold air will lock in longer instead of very transient cold then blow torch pattern.

[ClicheVortex2014]

imo, 97-98 was the winter where the general public became more aware of the term "El Nino."  It was hyped a lot and for good reason.  I even remember my great aunt mentioning it back then, except she pronounced it "El Meano" lol. 

 

Playing devil's advocate, the map that csnavy posted is only 3 years.  3 super Ninos in 65 years of records is not very many cases.  I know there are records going back prior to the NOAA cutoff -- do we know about any "super" Ninos pre-1950?

My biggest concern is the warm pool/+PDO. As you said... we've only have 3 super Ninos since 1950. How many of them had an extreme warm pool like this? Probably none.

 

With that said... and as I've mentioned before, CFSv2 gets rid of the warm pool by the time DJF comes around. IMO, CFSv2's solution with the entire Pacific is reminiscent of 97-98. Not only is it an east-based Nino... but it has the same thing happening to the PDO. 

 

This is really bad for map comparison since the maps aren't the same... but look at the key features in the North Pacific... namely the area around Japan and the GOA/PDO region.

 

July 7, 1997: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.7.7.1997.gif

July 6, 2015: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.6.2015.gif

 

There's a whole bunch of cool water coming from the Sea of Okhotsk. Warm water mostly to the south of Japan. Also a rather strong PDO. The only big difference was the pool of especially warm water in the western GOA/Aleutian islands in 1997, but it's further southeast in 2015. 

 

Here's December 23, 1997: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.12.23.1997.gif

 

Notice the cool water is approaching the west coast. The water back in the Japan region has warmed.

 

Here's the CFSv2: http://i.imgur.com/qpqhGEa.gif

 

JFM looks somewhat similar to what December 23, 1997 looked like.

 

As I've said before... I don't expect the PDO to flip this winter... it's probably gonna take longer than that. But I think the PDO should be cooling or transitioning to -PDO this winter, based on not only the models (which aren't very reliable), but from looking at cases like 1997-1998 where the PDO flipped from warm to cool during a Nino.

[michsnowfreak]

Most people remember winter based on how much snow falls. A winter with a temp departure of -0.5F but 50% of avg snowfall would be remembered as a "mild" winter whereas a winter with a temp departure of +1.5F but 150% of avg snow would be a "harsh" winter. Obviously many of us on a weather board know better, but I have seen it with my own eyes over the years (talking general public).

The sensible weather of 72-73, 82-83, & 97-98 were all very different. I have a list of strong ninos since the 1870s (as posted earlier in this thread) but not sure which were "super ninos".

As much as I want harsh winters every year I am realistic. It simply won't happen. But I also notice trends...and the trend I this region is increasingly harsh winters. We have had ONE winter in the last 8 years with below normal snow, & that winter (2011-12) still had more snow than it should have considering the horrendous pattern we were in.

[Chargers09]

We're in for a clunker.

[nwohweather]

We're in for a clunker.

Eh that's okay a strong El Niño is needed to save the west and these last two winters have been especially harsh

[andyhb]

I keep saying....this isn't a Nino that you can just look at analogs & say...here's business ad usual. Until that warm blob in NPAC is gone persistent ridginging in Alaska & NW Canada are going to dominate winters...East-based, modoki...it will not matter, cold air will be forced south when EPO dives.

If warm blob remains, there will he large cold air intrusions in the lower 48 east of Rockies when -EPO/Ridging kicks in followed by blow torch when it relaxes.

If -NAO blocking occurs, which hasn't much the last 2 winters, then cold air will lock in longer instead of very transient cold then blow torch pattern.

 

If the Nino strengthens beyond a 2˚C anomaly, it's very likely that it will dominate the pattern over the EPO/etc.

 

We really haven't had a strong ENSO signal in any of these recent years where the western ridge has controlled the pattern across the CONUS.

[csnavywx]

If the Nino strengthens beyond a 2˚C anomaly, it's very likely that it will dominate the pattern over the EPO/etc.

 

We really haven't had a strong ENSO signal in any of these recent years where the western ridge has controlled the pattern across the CONUS.

Yes, the Blob/RRR and the AMOC-slowing induced cold-pool in the North Atlantic have the potential to help out here. But, like I said above, they'll likely be fighting a raging subtropical jet. There's a reason Texas and Oklahoma got slammed with rain in May and we got slammed in June. It's already on the field and in play.

 

 

And yes, as a rule, whenever extreme El Nino events occur, they are usually followed by a strong Nina.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yes, the Blob/RRR and the AMOC-slowing induced cold-pool in the North Atlantic have the potential to help out here. But, like I said above, they'll likely be fighting a raging subtropical jet. There's a reason Texas and Oklahoma got slammed with rain in May and we got slammed in June. It's already on the field and in play.

 

 

And yes, as a rule, whenever extreme El Nino events occur, they are usually followed by a strong Nina.

2017 tornado season is sounding good

[michsnowfreak]

We're in for a clunker.

We are certainly due for one...but I'll believe it when I see it.

While I doubt we will be buried in snow and entrenched in a tundra for weeks to months on end as we were the last two years, don't count out a snowy winter. I just can't see a Nino without it's temp swing, so even a snowy winter would likely see some bare periods and torches.

A winter of average temps, average snowfall, and average snow cover days will seem like a clunker anyway lol.

[stadiumwave]

If the Nino strengthens beyond a 2˚C anomaly, it's very likely that it will dominate the pattern over the EPO/etc.

We really haven't had a strong ENSO signal in any of these recent years where the western ridge has controlled the pattern across the CONUS.

Storms & track etc...yes. But regardless of how strong or weak the El Nino is if EPO takes nose dive with these strong ridges the cold must come. El Nino will not do away with that unless a persistent GOA SLP cools the waters there...which could very well happen.

If it doesn't & warm blob stays then the cold will come. I could forsee large winter storms in the southern plains with active subtropical jet when EPO nose dives & floods when it doesn't. Not constant cold unless there is a persistent -NAO. Without -NAO it's blow torch when -EPO relaxes.

So, I agree a strong El Nino will dominate in some aspects...MJO will be big, typhoon rule could also be big but other unusual phenomena like the warm blob will make its presence felt also. Could be a really interesting winter.

[andyhb]

NMME July ensemble set is going absolutely bonkers, good amount of the members have the strongest Nino in modern times, 95+ % have a strong Nino.

 

[Hoosier]

Wow. How does that NMME typically perform?

[ClicheVortex2014]

NMME July ensemble set is going absolutely bonkers, good amount of the members have the strongest Nino in modern times, 95+ % have a strong Nino.

 

 

Updated plots for some more models:

 

A bunch of those SST solutions are really weird. 

 

CanCM4 and NASA GEOS5 has the Nino shattering the 97-98 Nino, and both have a Modoki-like temp/precip pattern.

CM2.1 has a weird looking equatorial Pacific... and the north Pacific is even weirder.

 

The middle row of models have all gotten rid of the warm pool and have the PDO cooling.

 

Comparing NDJ to DJF, most of the models have the Nino and PDO weakening. The only exceptions are CM2.1 and NASA_GEOS5