Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[ingyball]

Pretty much. Good luck to anyone trying to pin down a prediction for this Winter. 

 

I literally just read this article after I read your post, it pretty much sums up what you said lol. http://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/2015/10/29/persimmon-seeds-predict-strange-winter-weather/74460654/

[wisconsinwx]

I have to say it warms my heart to see the PNA projections for the first half of November. If we're going to elude strong Nino climo and see a lot of wintry weather, a negative PNA will probably be a major factor.

[Geos]

Another system coming out of the SW next weekend.

Very un-el Niño-like.

 

 

[Hoosier]

My 2015-16 winter outlook for the Chicago area, with some general thoughts for other areas at the end.  This is not technical in nature...if you want a very detailed writeup, I'd recommend OHweather's excellent thread in the main forum.

 

Put it in GIF format, but couldn't figure out how to have more than 20 seconds in between slides, so some of the slides go by faster than ideal.  The whole thing takes about 5 minutes to watch, but for anyone who doesn't want to watch the whole thing, I've singled out and attached the most important info below the GIF.

 

 

 

==========

 

 

 

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Based on the last few runs of the GFS, and the snow/cold it shows I'm not worried in the short term.

[IWXwx]

Thanks for posting your thoughts Hoosier. I think that a pertinent point is the SST's outside of the Nino region. This is uncharted territory in how, in conjunction with such a strong Nino, may affect our sensible weather, making any winter forecast low confidence.

[Hoosier]

Thanks for posting your thoughts Hoosier. I think that a pertinent point is the SST's outside of the Nino region. This is uncharted territory in how, in conjunction with such a strong Nino, may affect our sensible weather, making any winter forecast low confidence.

 

 

Yeah, there isn't an analog for these kinds of Pacific SSTs with a strong Nino.  How it factors in is anybody's guess.  I do think there's a risk of putting too much emphasis on it and expecting a wild result.

 

As far as this Nino, even though the data before 1950 is a bit sketchy, I think there's a pretty good chance it's a top 3 event in the past 140-150 years and the strongest basin-wide event.  That alone makes this an interesting winter to forecast for, and then you throw in all the unknowns.

 

I failed to elaborate on my AO/NAO thoughts, but basically I have them negative due to various correlations with ENSO, summer/fall readings, etc, but obviously there's a good deal of uncertainty here.  We'll need a decent Pacific though or else it may not mean much.

 

One thing that makes me nervous is how it seems like many of the forecasts are going for a backloaded winter, including mine.  Groupthink can get you into trouble sometimes lol.  But there really doesn't seem to be a good reason to bet against that.  If anyone goes with a frontloaded winter and gets it correct, kudos to them.  I could see an overall temperature progression similar to last winter, but I'm going with the idea of February not being able to completely wipe out the positive anomalies.  Of course it's possible...look at last winter...but it's hard to go with a repeat of last February. 

[Hoosier]

The latest CanSIPS that just came out says why wait

 

January:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

The latest CanSIPS that just came out says why wait

January:

500.png

tmp.png

prcp.png

January does look absolutely gorgeous, but the February maps make little sense. It has a better 500mb map than January's, but warm temps and normal to below normal precip.

[Hoosier]

January does look absolutely gorgeous, but the February maps make little sense. It has a better 500mb map than January's, but warm temps and normal to below normal precip.

 

Well, the mets do say that 500 mb is usually a better indicator of what's going to transpire at the surface instead of these 2m anomaly maps on the seasonal models.  So going by that, perhaps February would be colder than January.

[mitchnick]

Well, the mets do say that 500 mb is usually a better indicator of what's going to transpire at the surface instead of these 2m anomaly maps on the seasonal models. So going by that, perhaps February would be colder than January.

I was thinking/hoping exactly that. I'd take February's 500mb map in a second, so I hope it's right.

[TugHillMatt]

An average of 1 to 2 degrees above normal for the winter isn't A HUGE above average winter as some national mets have been touting. Sounds like you're thinking December and February are exact opposites of each other, averaging one another out, with January being about normal.

[Hoosier]

An average of 1 to 2 degrees above normal for the winter isn't A HUGE above average winter as some national mets have been touting. Sounds like you're thinking December and February are exact opposites of each other, averaging one another out, with January being about normal.

 

 

I think January could be a transition month...imo it's the toughest call out of the 3.

 

82-83/97-98 get mentioned a lot, but I think there are enough differences to lean toward a cooler winter than those two (82-83 was a relatively late bloomer; the timing of 97-98 is similar to this one but 97-98 was more east based).  I just couldn't pull the trigger on a colder than average winter...not that it's impossible, but I have a hard time going that way.  Look at an event like 2009-10...it was much weaker than this one and more west based...it did end up colder than average but by relatively modest amounts (especially around the Lakes), and it took an insane -AO. 

[TugHillMatt]

I think January could be a transition month...imo it's the toughest call out of the 3.

 

82-83/97-98 get mentioned a lot, but I think there are enough differences to lean toward a cooler winter than those two (82-83 was a relatively late bloomer; the timing of 97-98 is similar to this one but 97-98 was more east based).  I just couldn't pull the trigger on a colder than average winter...not that it's impossible, but I have a hard time going that way.  Look at an event like 2009-10...it was much weaker than this one and more west based...it did end up colder than average but by relatively modest amounts (especially around the Lakes), and it took an insane -AO. 

Great points. 2009/10 was a good winter for the east coast. Atleast for some of the more inland areas that haven't had many snow winters this century.

[Geos]

Good logical ideas for the winter Hoosier. 

 

I too think it will be a backloaded winter. Have a feeling things will be slow for most of December, then things will pick up more as the El Niño starts to decrease in intensity going into January. I think there will be some wild swings from late December into mid January, but I think a colder than normal pattern sets in late January and lasts into March.

Really a challenge nailing down anything specific, especially since we don't have any good analogs for this winter. I think DJF will have near normal to slightly above normal precipitation, especially from the southern Lakes to the Ohio Valley. I have a feeling that the southern jet will a bit further north due to northern Pacific conditions.

 

2009-2010 was pretty memorable here with plenty of moisture early on - both rain and snow in December. January was more tranquil with less snow and a two week "mild" period, then the snow came barreling back in, in February. Not one drop of moisture was liquid that February - all snow. That was a 60" winter here.

[TugHillMatt]

Good logical ideas for the winter Hoosier. 

 

I too think it will be a backloaded winter. Have a feeling things will be slow for most of December, then things will pick up more as the El Niño starts to decrease in intensity going into January. I think there will be some wild swings from late December into mid January, but I think a colder than normal pattern sets in late January and lasts into March.

Really a challenge nailing down anything specific, especially since we don't have any good analogs for this winter. I think DJF will have near normal to slightly above normal precipitation, especially from the southern Lakes to the Ohio Valley. I have a feeling that the southern jet will a bit further north due to northern Pacific conditions.

 

2009-2010 was pretty memorable here with plenty of moisture early on - both rain and snow in December. January was more tranquil with less snow and a two week "mild" period, then the snow came barreling back in, in February. Not one drop of moisture was liquid that February - all snow. That was a 60" winter here.

 

I believe that was a great winter for Wisconsin, wasn't it? Madison winter. The 2 main storm tracks were up through the Western Lakes, and along the Appalachians. This area had a below average snowfall winter because lake effect didn't occur as much.

[Hoosier]

I believe that was a great winter for Wisconsin, wasn't it? Madison winter. The 2 main storm tracks were up through the Western Lakes, and along the Appalachians. This area had a below average snowfall winter because lake effect didn't occur as much.

 

 

09-10

 

 

[n1vek]

That January 500mb pattern is above normal and classic mega-nino look. Its temp departure is silly and not possible given the configuration.

I had the same thought. What type of pattern could produce those anomalies? Warm source region? Ridging? Just sounds like 35 and rain.

[Stebo]

I believe that was a great winter for Wisconsin, wasn't it? Madison winter. The 2 main storm tracks were up through the Western Lakes, and along the Appalachians. This area had a below average snowfall winter because lake effect didn't occur as much.

You are thinking of 08-09 I believe.

[Stebo]

That January 500mb pattern is above normal and classic mega-nino look. Its temp departure is silly and not possible given the configuration.

The mean trough on that 500mb pattern is west of us, which is favorable. I don't buy the temp map as much based upon the 500mb pattern, the precip pattern does look like it would make sense.

[Geos]

I believe that was a great winter for Wisconsin, wasn't it? Madison winter. The 2 main storm tracks were up through the Western Lakes, and along the Appalachians. This area had a below average snowfall winter because lake effect didn't occur as much.

 

Madison had a really big storm December 8-9, 2009 with 17-20". I think they got hit again really good later in the winter. Winter before was pretty good for them as well. 

[TugHillMatt]

Oh, ok. I knew it was one of those winters. 09-10 was a great winter for the Appalachians, as seen from Hoosier's map.

[Hoosier]

Here's your November 1 CFS peek at December.  We'll see how it trends throughout the month.

 

 

[buckeye]

Here's your November 1 CFS peek at December.  We'll see how it trends throughout the month.

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151101.201512.gif

 

awesome!   Give me an island of snow and cold around the holidays and sandwich that with torches and everything in the world will be good 

[BuffaloWeather]

Another winter outlook.

 

http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/

[Hoosier]

Another winter outlook.

 

http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/

 

His commentary on the strength of this Nino is off base to say the least. 

 

The year 2002 was an El Nino year of similar intensity to what I expect this year’s El Nino to be

 

I mean, really? 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

2009-2010 was an absolutely awful winter in the Toronto area - one of the driest and most snow free on record. I recall there was also a very strong AO that year which led to Labrador torching while the Mid-Atlantic had a snow and cold bonanza.

[BuffaloWeather]

His commentary on the strength of this Nino is off base to say the least. 

 

 

 

 

I mean, really? 

 

Well he is a met and there is no analog for this years El Nino.

 

[Hoosier]

Well he is a met and there is no analog for this years El Nino.

 

 

 

I don't disagree that this year is unique in some ways...I'm taking issue with the idea that this Nino is of similar strength to 2002. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't disagree that this year is unique in some ways...I'm taking issue with the idea that this Nino is of similar strength to 2002. 

 

Yeah, that doesn't make sense. Maybe he meant in a way of where the warmest waters were located in the Pacific in comparison to the stronger ones of 82 and 97?