Hoosier Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip Something's up with those charts. Some of the years have different strength classifications on the temperature and precip maps...like 87-88 is shown as strong on the temperature map and moderate on the precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Something's up with those charts. Some of the years have different strength classifications on the temperature and precip maps...like 87-88 is shown as strong on the temperature map and moderate on the precip map. Hmm. I got it from here. https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Awesome maps!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 If y'all have some time, check out OHweather's outlook: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 Just talking about October in strong Ninos... there's a split in warmer/colder than average with some lean toward colder. I think from a national perspective, 1940 may be the best match to this October in terms of temps but we'll see where we end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 If y'all have some time, check out OHweather's outlook: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/ Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough). Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough). Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc. It was a tremendous effort on your part...very well thought out regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 It was a tremendous effort on your part...very well thought out regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the conclusions. Agree 100%! Well done OHweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough). Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc. With having later starts to winter this century, it is also safer to go with a warmer December. I look forward to hearing your thoughts as the cold-season progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me. Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average. Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 From NE forums: WINTER OUTLOOK from Michael Clark from Bamschase.net. Great MET WINTER OUTLOOK from Jonathon Marker @ WeatherVue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me. Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average. Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them. 1899fall.png 1899winter.png 1902fall.png 1902winter.png I have to agree that for this winter there is a unique set of conditions that we have not seen in any of our lifetimes. Not much below normal at all in the country over the last 60 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Long range models show vigorous rushing ridging over middle NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I noticed the euro 10 day brings lower 70's back to Ohio....no sign of a cold transition in the medium range. With us being in uncharted water wrt the warm fall anomalies in a super el nino, maybe there's another option no one seems to be talking about.... ...warmth straight thru spring (aka Josh's worst nightmare) of course if that happens, Al Gore might throw his hat in the ring by March lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me. Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average. Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them. 1899fall.png 1899winter.png 1902fall.png 1902winter.png It is very strange. A cold Fall in a STRONG Nino is near unanimous, while the winter signal itself is MUCH more mixed. Our region has been dominated by colder than normal weather since Feb 2013, and when it looked like that would continue into Fall (based on strong Nino signal alone) it turned mild. Its not as if weve been in a mild pattern, its been the polar opposite (pun intended). Its always funny to me when some try to dismiss the Fall signals but act like winter is just a guaranteed torch, when it could not be further from the truth. The "near guarantee" (aka Fall) has failed miserably...now onto the winter of the unknown. I dont have maps, but at Detroit, Fall of 1877 was near normal temp-wise (+0.4F), the ONLY Fall of the 11 strong Ninos NOT below normal, then winter was mild, wet, and snowy. Fall of 1888 was very cold, and winter ended up being colder than normal, dry, and below normal snow (note it was a slightly mild Dec, mild Jan, and bitter cold Feb but winter still ended up colder than normal due to feb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 7 more weeks before panic would even enter my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I noticed the euro 10 day brings lower 70's back to Ohio....no sign of a cold transition in the medium range. With us being in uncharted water wrt the warm fall anomalies in a super el nino, maybe there's another option no one seems to be talking about.... ...warmth straight thru spring (aka Josh's worst nightmare) of course if that happens, Al Gore might throw his hat in the ring by March lol. Oh, Ive seen the usual suspects talking about warmth straight through winter. Like I said, nothing will surprise me this winter. Plenty of signs pointing towards a good winter, plenty of signs hoisting red flags. Winter of the unknown. No one, and I mean NO ONE will be more disappointed in our region than the warmistas if this winter isnt warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 7 more weeks before panic would even enter my mind. yup. Fall will be warmer than normal thanks to September. October has been just slightly warmer than normal, but it has already flurried. Been enjoying this month, as I do every year, because I LOVE Fall. Say it every year, falls on deaf ear, but Im not even in winter mode yet. My switch flips on Nov 1st, I go from Fall to snow mode, but even then, WAY to early for any panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 If this winter follows the pattern of this October, it would go along with many of the winter forecasts. Somewhat milder than normal, with the "cold fronts" dropping temps back to "normal levels". Leaning on the warm side of normal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 It is very strange. A cold Fall in a STRONG Nino is near unanimous, while the winter signal itself is MUCH more mixed. Our region has been dominated by colder than normal weather since Feb 2013, and when it looked like that would continue into Fall (based on strong Nino signal alone) it turned mild. Its not as if weve been in a mild pattern, its been the polar opposite (pun intended). Its always funny to me when some try to dismiss the Fall signals but act like winter is just a guaranteed torch, when it could not be further from the truth. The "near guarantee" (aka Fall) has failed miserably...now onto the winter of the unknown. I dont have maps, but at Detroit, Fall of 1877 was near normal temp-wise (+0.4F), the ONLY Fall of the 11 strong Ninos NOT below normal, then winter was mild, wet, and snowy. Fall of 1888 was very cold, and winter ended up being colder than normal, dry, and below normal snow (note it was a slightly mild Dec, mild Jan, and bitter cold Feb but winter still ended up colder than normal due to feb). You're right. There are no analogs for this years El Nino. We're in uncharted territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now). Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures. Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change. One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99. Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now). Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures. Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change. One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99. Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner. It was in 1998. Reached at least the low 60s here too. I remember that very well. I was really into snow and cold then and I was miserable that day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 It was in 1998. Reached at least the low 60s here too. I remember that very well. I was really into snow and cold then and I was miserable that day, lol. Would've been miserable until January 1 lol. That was a rough start for winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 It was in 1998. Reached at least the low 60s here too. I remember that very well. I was really into snow and cold then and I was miserable that day, lol. I remember we reached record temps in the lower 70s in early December that year. Think it was a few days in a row IIRC. Of course less than a month later we got buried by the New Year blizzard of '99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Was just looking back to 1998 to see what I had here. Reached the mid 60s both in November and December. Had some lows in the 50s in early December which is really wild. I had 1.1" going into the New Years 99 Blizzard for the season and that was all in December. Didn't even come close to snowing in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 If this winter follows the pattern of this October, it would go along with many of the winter forecasts. Somewhat milder than normal, with the "cold fronts" dropping temps back to "normal levels". Leaning on the warm side of normal levels.The first and third weekend of October had temps well below normal. I could see a roller coaster pattern like that. A monthly departure could end up like +1-2F but is a product of periods of well above normal and we'll below normal, as in departures some 15-20F off of normal, both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now). Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures. Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change. One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99. Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner. Which would only continue the un-nino-like pattern. It isn't uncommon to have a few days in the 60s or even 70 in November though, even a cold November, but if it is frequently 60s that would be unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 You're right. There are no analogs for this years El Nino. We're in uncharted territories. Pretty much. Good luck to anyone trying to pin down a prediction for this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Pretty much. Good luck to anyone trying to pin down a prediction for this Winter. It will snow sometimes...how's that? One thing I'd say is that IF December comes in colder than average or only modestly warmer than average, it's going to greatly increase the chances for a colder than average winter. I'm on the backloaded/step down winter wagon or whatever you want to call it, though I'm not sure it's a "clean" step down (i.e. each month colder than the previous). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 It will snow sometimes...how's that? One thing I'd say is that IF December comes in colder than average or only modestly warmer than average, it's going to greatly increase the chances for a colder than average winter. I'm on the backloaded/step down winter wagon or whatever you want to call it, though I'm not sure it's a "clean" step down (i.e. each month colder than the previous). Mark me down on the cold December, warm Jan/Feb bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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