Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[Harry]

1896-97 was the strong one.

 

 

UGH.. Good catch! Thanks!  Yeah 1897-98 was nina i do believe?

[Harry]

Are you getting maps of this stuff (the snowfall by year)?  If so, can you post the link.

 

 

Yeah i wouldn't mind seeing that either. Thanks!

[JoMo]

Yep, you have to register (free) but here's the link:

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/index.jsp

 

Lots of good stuff. I'm using the "Maps of Data > MRCC Gridded Data > Specific period" to quickly generate the snowfall % of mean using a period of Nov 1st to April 1st of each of the strong/very strong El Nino years,  but there's lot of stuff I haven't touched on the site yet, heh.

[Chambana]

UGH.. Good catch! Thanks! Yeah 1897-98 was nina i do believe?

Yup, 1897 was La Niña. I do believe 1896 featured a drought? I could be wrong though. Great discussion guys. Thanks for the link to Cli-MATE jomo!

[IWXwx]

We had plenty of front-loaded extreme cold the past 2 winters. It's just the heavy snow / winter storms that have been lacking.  

 

 

I don't agree with this.  The last couple of winters were actually front AND back loaded.   They seemed to start early and end late.

Remember last November?   Here in Central Ohio we were tracking a winter storm in mid NOV, and had single digit lows after it gave us a few inches.   

I think we tend to judge the weeks leading up to and including xmas as to whether it's considered front loaded.  If winter is brown the impression is it's not a front loaded winter.

 

Meh, 4.2" of snow and cold in November, then 3.5° above normal and 0.4" of snow for all of December at FWA. This location averages around ~33" a season. With the extreme January and and February of '15, I consider it back-loaded.

[TugHillMatt]

Yeah, it was pretty extreme, I agree. But all in all, for the last five years here we've seen warm N,D with little snowfall and then cold J, F, M (exception March 2012), with average to above average snowfall in that time period.

Sent from my iPhone

I definitely agree with this! Besides last November, the Novembers and Decembers for the time I have lived in this area have been pretty mild and rather boring. The second half of January and February have been the opposite! Pretty strong but short winters.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Nino is an East based Super Nino.

Not as far East as 1997 but it's not even close to being a modoki.

The subsurface warm pool has expanded East big time the last 25 DAYS.

And the trades are weakening from the dateline to far East enso 3.

This will allow this warm pool to surface over the epac and the Nino configuration will turn even more East based.

The major question I'd ask is the warm subtropical water North towards Mexico going to help keep the SW inundated with cut offshore or perpetual troughs pumping warm moist air into the Midwest coming from historically warm and wet regions

If that isn't suppressed. Yucky

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, it was pretty extreme, I agree. But all in all, for the last five years here we've seen warm N,D with little snowfall and then cold J, F, M (exception March 2012), with average to above average snowfall in that time period.

Sent from my iPhone

For the most part winters have been more backloaded recently. February has been on a downright historic pace the last decade here. However, the last 3 November's have been colder than normal.

I wouldn't call 2013-14 backloaded, at least here. It was truly a hard winter from start to finish, just epic. Very cold November with a few light shots of snow. Then once the ground was covered in snow in early December we didn't look back until the end of March. The second half of winter was certainly more severe, but when I think.of backloaded I think of not much going on the first part of winter.

[Chicago WX]

I think 2013-14 was spread out pretty well...especially considering how truly difficult it is to get cold/snowy conditions for 5 consecutive months. Granted, most didn't put up eye popping Nov snowfall totals, but it's not a really snowy month for most anyways. But starting in Dec 13, everyone was above normal in snowfall...and the rest is history. As Chambana said upthread...this was one of the all-timers. Probably won't see another like this for a long time.

 

2013-14 Snowfall: Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Season Totals

 

CLE: T...4.7...17.1...23.7...23.8...15.1...1.3...0.0...85.7

CMH: T...4.7...12.7...17.7...15.9...4.5...0.9...0.0...56.4

DTW: T...1.2...15.5...39.1...23.4...12.5...3.2...0.0...94.9

FWA: T...1.0...9.9...30.3...19.2...13.2...1.1...0.0...74.7

GRB: T...1.2...26.4...17.0...17.7...6.1...3.7...0.0...72.1

GRR: T...2.2...34.7...41.9...29.0...6.4...1.8...0.0...116.0

IND: T...0.1...8.8...26.9...16.5...3.1...0.3...T...55.7

MKE: 0.0...2.0...19.3...19.6...15.9...6.3...0.3...0.0...63.4

MLI: 0.4...0.6...13.8...17.7...22.3...10.3...T...0.0...65.1

MQT: 3.5...19.0...46.9...39.2...20.9...30.0...35.8...3.6...198.9

MSP: T...1.1...15.9...22.7...18.4...4.7...7.0...0.0...69.8

ORD: T...0.9...14.2...33.7...19.5...12.3...1.4...0.0...82.0

PIA: T...0.6...8.5...18.2...22.9...7.1...0.3...0.0...57.6

STL: 0.0...T...5.6...15.8...5.8...1.6...T...28.8

 

Monthly temp departures (Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar):

 

[Hoosier]

The Nino is an East based Super Nino.

Not as far East as 1997 but it's not even close to being a modoki.

The subsurface warm pool has expanded East big time the last 25 DAYS.

And the trades are weakening from the dateline to far East enso 3.

This will allow this warm pool to surface over the epac and the Nino configuration will turn even more East based.

The major question I'd ask is the warm subtropical water North towards Mexico going to help keep the SW inundated with cut offshore or perpetual troughs pumping warm moist air into the Midwest coming from historically warm and wet regions

If that isn't suppressed. Yucky

 

 

As far as where this Nino is based, why are the only choices east based and modoki?  I wouldn't call it modoki but it seems more basin wide.  Even the western region has been very warm relative to average.

 

You bring up a good point about the warm anomalies north of the ENSO region.  I'm not sure if it holds or how to really factor it in to an outlook, but it's there.  In any case, with the strength of the Nino and what should be an active southern branch, there should be some pretty big/wound up systems.

[stadiumwave]

The Nino is an East based Super Nino.

Not as far East as 1997 but it's not even close to being a modoki.

The subsurface warm pool has expanded East big time the last 25 DAYS.

And the trades are weakening from the dateline to far East enso 3.

This will allow this warm pool to surface over the epac and the Nino configuration will turn even more East based.

The major question I'd ask is the warm subtropical water North towards Mexico going to help keep the SW inundated with cut offshore or perpetual troughs pumping warm moist air into the Midwest coming from historically warm and wet regions

If that isn't suppressed. Yucky

The forcing is NOT east. Greatest "forcing" has been around 130....which is easily further west than 97-98.

This is a basinwide Nino as far as anomalies, with central forcing. It's a hybrid

I'm driving & can't post maybe somebody could post this for me

[michsnowfreak]

I think 2013-14 was spread out pretty well...especially considering how truly difficult it is to get cold/snowy conditions for 5 consecutive months. Granted, most didn't put up eye popping Nov snowfall totals, but it's not a really snowy month for most anyways. But starting in Dec 13, everyone was above normal in snowfall...and the rest is history. As Chambana said upthread...this was one of the all-timers. Probably won't see another like this for a long time.

2013-14 Snowfall: Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Season Totals

CLE: T...4.7...17.1...23.7...23.8...15.1...1.3...0.0...85.7

CMH: T...4.7...12.7...17.7...15.9...4.5...0.9...0.0...56.4

DTW: T...1.2...15.5...39.1...23.4...12.5...3.2...0.0...94.9

FWA: T...1.0...9.9...30.3...19.2...13.2...1.1...0.0...74.7

GRB: T...1.2...26.4...17.0...17.7...6.1...3.7...0.0...72.1

GRR: T...2.2...34.7...41.9...29.0...6.4...1.8...0.0...116.0

IND: T...0.1...8.8...26.9...16.5...3.1...0.3...T...55.7

MKE: 0.0...2.0...19.3...19.6...15.9...6.3...0.3...0.0...63.4

MLI: 0.4...0.6...13.8...17.7...22.3...10.3...T...0.0...65.1

MQT: 3.5...19.0...46.9...39.2...20.9...30.0...35.8...3.6...198.9

MSP: T...1.1...15.9...22.7...18.4...4.7...7.0...0.0...69.8

ORD: T...0.9...14.2...33.7...19.5...12.3...1.4...0.0...82.0

PIA: T...0.6...8.5...18.2...22.9...7.1...0.3...0.0...57.6

STL: 0.0...T...5.6...15.8...5.8...1.6...T...28.8

Monthly temp departures (Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar):

Nov 13.png

Dec 13.png

Jan 14.png

Feb 14.png

Mar 14.png

Thanks you for this wonderful recap of my most favorite winter ever

[IWXwx]

You know winter is nigh when Tim starts posting.

 

Thanks for the details from a memorable winter. I have a bad feeling that this winter will be a shell of '13-'14.

 

I'm looking forward to Indian Summer this week.

[TugHillMatt]

You know winter is nigh when Tim starts posting.

 

Thanks for the details from a memorable winter. I have a bad feeling that this winter will be a shell of '13-'14.

 

I'm looking forward to Indian Summer this week.

I sure hope so! Even if they said "warmer" than that winter, I'd be fine with that! 20s for highs instead of negatives and single digits? Sounds good to me! lol

[Hoosier]

This may come as a surprise.  Just over half of the strong Nino winters produced above average precip in Chicago.  A few of those were not real far above average but still.  The 3 Super Ninos (72-73, 82-83, 97-98) were all wetter than average, though 97-98 barely made it as it came in at just +0.10".

 

Point being, and this goes for other areas, be careful in automatically assuming this winter will be drier than average.  If anything, there's more of a dry signal toward the eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley for strong Ninos, which at first thought seems kinda odd as you'd think some of that area would have a higher chance of benefitting from the STJ more often.    

[Chambana]

Looking at solar cycles and solar activity it does appear the super Nino of 97-98 occurred during the solar minimum of solar cycle 23. Looking at the current strong/super Nino of 2015 appears it will occur during which I I think is being claimed as the "second peak" of cycle 24. Kinda interesting really.

[Hoosier]

1877-78 and 1888-89 not included

 

[andyhb]

IRI plume for October has most peaking in the tri-monthly centered on December (typical), with a steep decline following (as often occurs in response to the Walker cell restrengthening).

 

[Chambana]

I had also done research, blending the most active North Atlantic hurricane season, to the least active North Atlantic hurricane seasons, yielded some very interesting results.

First of we take a look at the least active hurricane years (1914, 1917, 1925, 1929) it paints a very cold picture for the lower 48, of course this is before satellite era, but fun to look at either way you slice it

Next let's take a a look at the most active hurricane seasons on record, (2005, 1933, 2012, 2011, 1995) as you can see warmer than normal anomalies are painted across the lower 48, not sure if their is any correlation or not! Also 2015 season has been eerily quiet as well, contuining the trend of the past few hurricane seasons.

[Hoosier]

I had also done research, blending the most active North Atlantic hurricane season, to the least active North Atlantic hurricane seasons, yielded some very interesting results.

First of we take a look at the least active hurricane years (1914, 1917, 1925, 1929) it paints a very cold picture for the lower 48, of course this is before satellite era, but fun to look at either way you slice itimage.png

Next let's take a a look at the most active hurricane seasons on record, (2005, 1933, 2012, 2011, 1995) as you can see warmer than normal anomalies are painted across the lower 48, not sure if their is any correlation or not! Also 2015 season has been eerily quiet as well, contuining the trend of the past few hurricane seasons.

 

 

Can't remember who but there's somebody who is big on that.  Maybe JB lol

[Chambana]

Can't remember who but there's somebody who is big on that. Maybe JB lol

Oh god lol. This was for entertainment purposes only! I am in no way shape or form making a forecast off an eerily quiet hurricane season haha. JB is a joke. He's probably still riding his 2002-2003 analog.

[BuffaloWeather]

What a typical Strong El-Nino pattern looks like.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

In the end we are so far into uncharted territory.

Analogs kind of don't apply.

This is an extraordinary amount of heat at the surface of the NPAC. And all on the NA side.

Just reeks

of explosiveness.

[The_Global_Warmer]

As far as where this Nino is based, why are the only choices east based and modoki? I wouldn't call it modoki but it seems more basin wide. Even the western region has been very warm relative to average.

You bring up a good point about the warm anomalies north of the ENSO region. I'm not sure if it holds or how to really factor it in to an outlook, but it's there. In any case, with the strength of the Nino and what should be an active southern branch, there should be some pretty big/wound up systems.

I suppose there is always room between an East based and modeki.

And even basin wide.

The next two weeks will tell us a lot.

The sub surface warmth is still deepening and moving East from the last massive WWB centered around the dateline.

Another weaker but much further East WWB or trade weakening is happening all the way to 105W.

This should allow the previous kelvin wave to make it to the SA coast or close.

That's a big change.

[BuffaloWeather]

Judah Cowen favors a negative AO winter. From the blog:

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

The AO is currently negative and is predicted to temporarily turn
positive the end of the week before returning to negative over the
weekend and remaining near neutral, though model uncertainty is large.

In the short term, as below normal geopotential heights strengthens on
the North Atlantic side of the Arctic this will froce a positive trend
int eh AO. However this is only predicted to be temporary and overall
geopotential heights are predicted to remain relatively high over the
Arctic basin forcing the AO to turn more negative.

 

Despite a predicted negative bias to the AO, the pattern does not look
particularly cold for the Northern hemisphere continents. Strong low
pressure in the eastern North Pacific should pump mild Pacific air
across much of North America while strong ridging in western Asia should
prevent cold continental air from flowing westward into Europe. The
best chance of cold weather is in East Asia with a predicted tendency
for troughing downstream of the western Asia ridging.

 

Longer term we continue to favor a negative bias to the AO. Though
not as rapid as the past two Octobers, Siberian snow cover has advanced
this month at an above normal rate, Arctic sea ice extent remains below
normal, and active atmospheric blocking favors the likelihood of
troposphere-stratosphere coupling due to increased energy transfer from
the troposphere to the stratosphere. All three factors favor a negative
winter AO.

 

Impacts

 

The AO, which has remained mostly in negative territory since the end
of June continues to average below zero. The AO is currently weakly
negative and is predicted to trend positive and turn positive for most
of this week. However the AO is predicted to once again trend negative
and return to negative values over the weekend and into next week.
However by the middle of next week model uncertainty is very large and
the forecasts are for a neutral AO.

 

The predicted fluctuations in the AO state are reflective of rapid
transitions in the geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic basin.
The dominant early trend is deepening low geopotential heights in the
North Atlantic side of Arctic. This will help force a pattern
transition from one that favors troughing to one that favors more
ridging for both the Eastern United States and Europe. The negative AO
and deep troughs in both the Eastern United States and Europe has
resulted in cold temperatures. However the trend for both regions looks
to be for milder temperatures. The trend looks different for East
Asia. Predicted rising geopotential height anomalies in both the North
Pacific side of the Arctic and western Asia should help to force lower
geopotential heights in East Asia. This will help to advect cold
temperatures from Siberia into the region. Given the model forecast of
ongoing troughing in the region this is where we continue to favor the
best chance of below normal temperatures.

 

Looking for longer term towards the winter we follow Siberian October
snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric
precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. So far this
October Siberian snow cover has advanced more rapidly than normal though
not as fast as the two most recent Octobers. Arctic sea ice in the
Barents Kara seas is below normal and certainly less extensive than last
year at this time. Finally high latitude blocking has been above
normal so far this October. In particular model forecast of the
geopotential height field projects on to the pattern that favors
increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that
eventually warms the polar stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex.
We consider all of these factors to favor a negative winter AO and
therefore a relatively cold winter across the Northern Hemisphere
continents in the mid-latitudes. However we also have one of the
strongest El Niños ongoing that is predicted to last through the
winter. El Niño is thought to force milder winters across the
extratopical Northern Hemisphere. It is challenging to anticipate how
the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high
latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather.

[Hoosier]

There's pretty good evidence for -AO winter in the means.  However it's important to not fall in love with one index at the expense of other things.  To me the -AO will help make a really warm winter less likely, but what's going on in the GOA will be important.  If we get a vortex to set up shop with an eastward tendency in the GOA, then I don't think any amount of -AO/-NAO would really help.  But the seasonal models generally keep it farther west toward the Aleutians.

[michsnowfreak]

This may come as a surprise.  Just over half of the strong Nino winters produced above average precip in Chicago. A few of those were not real far above average but still. The 3 Super Ninos (72-73, 82-83, 97-98) were all wetter than average, though 97-98 barely made it as it came in at just +0.10".

Point being, and this goes for other areas, be careful in automatically assuming this winter will be drier than average. If anything, there's more of a dry signal toward the eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley for strong Ninos, which at first thought seems kinda odd as you'd think some of that area would have a higher chance of benefitting from the STJ more often.

It's surprising, but not really . Take all the years, put them in a grid, & voila, you get your strong nino climo. Kinda like an 80" winter and a 20" winter average out to 50". It's the avg of a small sample size. But I've extensively looked at all the strong nino winters (at Detroit) individually, & there is nothing in common with them. Different patterns in snow, precip, snowcover, what were the coldest/warmest parts of winter, etc. The ONLY strong sign that showed up in all of them was a cold Fall. And look how that's working out.

[andyhb]

There's pretty good evidence for -AO winter in the means.  However it's important to not fall in love with one index at the expense of other things.  To me the -AO will help make a really warm winter less likely, but what's going on in the GOA will be important.  If we get a vortex to set up shop with an eastward tendency in the GOA, then I don't think any amount of -AO/-NAO would really help.  But the seasonal models generally keep it farther west toward the Aleutians.

 

Considering a lot of big cutters tend to come with a -PDO/-PNA with corresponding increased west coast troughing, would think that some here would want that (and yes I'm obviously speaking with a svr wx bias lol).

 

SE ridge to work with that would be less likely with a strong ST jet though.

[Hoosier]

This type of Pacific warmth outside of the Nino areas off of Baja/northward + Strong Nino is a combo that we really haven't seen before

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip