Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Well I was going to agree with CanadianGuy that some are trying to wish this into a cold winter but I will refrain from cussing needlessly. And the warm crowd is doing the exact same. You are right no cussing needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 And the warm crowd is doing the exact same. You are right no cussing needed. I personally am not making a call on this one, but those who are wishing for cold are ignoring the massive strong El Nino, just because we are in a +PDO doesn't mean that the much larger forcing won't overwhelm the PDO. The PDO is weakening especially in the last week, may that be temporary or not I don't know but if you lose the +PDO or it weakens considerably the forcing associated with it will be negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Sorry to everyone who witnessed that meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I personally am not making a call on this one, but those who are wishing for cold are ignoring the massive strong El Nino, just because we are in a +PDO doesn't mean that the much larger forcing won't overwhelm the PDO. The PDO is weakening especially in the last week, may that be temporary or not I don't know but if you lose the +PDO or it weakens considerably the forcing associated with it will be negligible. That PDO can be overwhelmed for sure as we saw happen in 97-98. I wouldn't count on that alone with nino either. Some of what i look at in no particular order. ENSO - All 4 regions PDO, AO Snow cover Trends.. See this for example.. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n10/full/ngeo2517.html or.. Atlantic/Pacific etc.. Solar QBO Precip & temps from Summer onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Since our source region most of the winter when not getting true cross polar flow is Canada, I think an important factor is that it appears likely Canada will be warmer this winter (obviously still cold in an absolute sense) which in north/northwest flow would make cold shots less potent. If we get into enough zonal Pac flow setups and couple that with less potent cold shots, would help yield a warmer than avg lean even if it's not an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 And the warm crowd is doing the exact same. You are right no cussing needed.some in the warm crowd are definitely wishcasting. I haven't even seen anyone here really wishcast/forecast a cold winter (new england forum another story). Merely pointing out that strong nino climo is FAR from unanimously a mild, dry winter brings out the claws. So the strong ninos on record are split right down the middle locally (milder than normal winters and colder than normal) but yet forecasting ANYTHING other than a warm winter is wishcasting . Ive already made it clear that im not forecasting anything, but I'm not even necessarily wishing for a cold winter as a cold Nino winter could be of the very dry variety. Those types of winters it's not uncommon to have a clipper be your biggest storm of the winter, and at the end of the day most of us are about snow over temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Sorry to everyone who witnessed that meltdown. I'd like to apologize on behalf of the Canadian posters for "CanadianGuy"s offensive comments. Not very Canadian at all, and on the eve of election night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Since our source region most of the winter when not getting true cross polar flow is Canada, I think an important factor is that it appears likely Canada will be warmer this winter (obviously still cold in an absolute sense) which in north/northwest flow would make cold shots less potent. If we get into enough zonal Pac flow setups and couple that with less potent cold shots, would help yield a warmer than avg lean even if it's not an all out torch. Yeah the lack of the cross polar flow is really going to be key. Doesn't mean we won't have cold shots but magnitude of cold will be limited. The concern too is the snow cover in Western Canada is lacking right now and if we remain in a +EPO that region is going to continue to run behind everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'd like to apologize on behalf of the Canadian posters for "CanadianGuy"s offensive comments. Not very Canadian at all, and on the eve of election night too. You don't need to apologize for one idiot who happens to be Canadian. The US has more than enough idiots to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Since our source region most of the winter when not getting true cross polar flow is Canada, I think an important factor is that it appears likely Canada will be warmer this winter (obviously still cold in an absolute sense) which in north/northwest flow would make cold shots less potent. If we get into enough zonal Pac flow setups and couple that with less potent cold shots, would help yield a warmer than avg lean even if it's not an all out torch. What were temps in 09-10 across Canada? More specifically in the south central part and thus the Plains? I know eastern/ne Canda roasted. Ofcourse we had that crazy -nao that delivered big for DC to Philly which helped torch the eastern parts of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The warm crowd is definitely wishcasting. I haven't even seen anyone here really wishcast/forecast a cold winter (new england forum another story). Merely pointing out that strong nino climo is FAR from unanimously a mild, dry winter brings out the claws. So the strong ninos on record are split right down the middle locally (milder than normal winters and colder than normal) but yet forecasting ANYTHING other than a warm winter is wishcasting . Ive already made it clear that im not forecasting anything, but I'm not even necessarily wishing for a cold winter as a cold Nino winter could be of the very dry variety. Those types of winters it's not uncommon to have a clipper be your biggest storm of the winter, and at the end of the day most of us are about snow over temps. The farther east you are the better in strong Ninos. New England has a much better shot than the Great Lakes at a colder/snowier winter. Their wishcasting has some scientific backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I am leaning more towards normal ( temps ) for this area.. I'll have something more official in a few weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 What were temps in 09-10 across Canada? More specifically in the south central part and thus the Plains? I know eastern/ne Canda roasted. Ofcourse we had that crazy -nao that delivered big for DC to Philly which helped torch the eastern parts of Canada.I'm too lazy to check actual anomalies right now lol, but guess is it was warmer than normal too like points east. The persistent typical winter cold that winter was largely aided by the historic Arctic and North Atlantic blocking pattern, which is actually favored in a west based Modoki Niño according to some research posted by forum member okpowdah leading into last winter. It appears this Niño is unlikely to be extreme east based like 97-98 wrt highest SST anomalies and thus the forcing, so it will come down to placement of the most persistent tropical convection and the forcing resulting from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The farther east you are the better in strong Ninos. New England has a much better shot than the Great Lakes at a colder/snowier winter. Their wishcasting has some scientific backing.Im not sure it's about cold as much as it is above normal precip, at least on the east coast, which can lead to more snowstorms there. Mild/Cold is all in the relative sense. An average St Louis winter would be a disaster Detroit winter. A climo Nino of a torching upper midwest and a cold deep south...would still in the literal sense be deep winter in the upper midwest and chilly and wet, but not wintry, in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 The last couple summer's our area featured normal to below in daily temps....that switch seems to have been flipped. We will see how things average out on monthlies when all is said and done...but I would be willing to bet that we don't see such long lasting stretches of well below normal as we have the last few winters. I guess for now I am leaning towards an "average" season...with a solid nod towards above normal monthly temp departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Im not sure it's about cold as much as it is above normal precip, at least on the east coast, which can lead to more snowstorms there. Mild/Cold is all in the relative sense. An average St Louis winter would be a disaster Detroit winter. A climo Nino of a torching upper midwest and a cold deep south...would still in the literal sense be deep winter in the upper midwest and chilly and wet, but not wintry, in the south. Agreed. At least we won't have to worry to much about suppression. Cold shots are usually rare and far between with Pacific air controlling the lower 48 in typical strong Ninos. Temperature is much easier to predict in comparison to snowfall as already pointed out it only takes one storm to bring it to a normal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'm too lazy to check actual anomalies right now lol, but guess is it was warmer than normal too like points east. The persistent typical winter cold that winter was largely aided by the historic Arctic and North Atlantic blocking pattern, which is actually favored in a west based Modoki Niño according to some research posted by forum member okpowdah leading into last winter. It appears this Niño is unlikely to be extreme east based like 97-98 wrt highest SST anomalies and thus the forcing, so it will come down to placement of the most persistent tropical convection and the forcing resulting from it. All i have is this from 09-10.. Not sure how much of a cut off there was north of the border? Strength wise this nino seems more on pace with 72-73.. Placement i would have to check on how it compares to that? Not sure? I wanna give it a few more weeks before i jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 The last couple summer's our area featured normal to below in daily temps....that switch seems to have been flipped. We will see how things average out on monthlies when all is said and done...but I would be willing to bet that we don't see such long lasting stretches of well below normal as we have the last few winters. I guess for now I am leaning towards an "average" season...with a solid nod towards above normal monthly temp departures That's pretty much a given I think...especially compared to 2013-14. If you go back through the strong Ninos, the ones that were colder than average were modestly so...like -1 or -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 That's pretty much a given I think...especially compared to 2013-14. If you go back through the strong Ninos, the ones that were colder than average were modestly so...like -1 or -2. Yeah I agree. This winter wont be anything like the last 2 across this region temps wise. Not happening. And yeah anything is possible but it is extremely unlikely we see a repeat on the past two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 This. It's been a while since we've seen a front loaded winter. We had plenty of front-loaded extreme cold the past 2 winters. It's just the heavy snow / winter storms that have been lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 At this point I feel there isn't enough real data to support a NUCLEAR WARM winter like some are pushing for or a WIND CHILL WARNING EVERY WEEK winter like other's are pushing for. People need to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Yeah I agree. This winter wont be anything like the last 2 across this region temps wise. Not happening. And yeah anything is possible but it is extremely unlikely we see a repeat on the past two. Hmmm? Cohen disagrees. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/14/expert-ramp-up-in-siberian-snow-cover-hints-at-cold-winter-for-eastern-u-s/ Again lets see how the next few weeks go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 All i have is this from 09-10.. Winter0910Temps.png Not sure how much of a cut off there was north of the border? Strength wise this nino seems more on pace with 72-73.. Placement i would have to check on how it compares to that? Not sure? I wanna give it a few more weeks before i jump. Based off that map, I think I messed up details in my first post, the west based forcing allowed for a favorable position of the Aleutian low and thus a predominantly -EPO as well, and the historic blocking torched eastern Canada, but also locked in troughing for eastern US. 72-73 has been mentioned on New England and NYC Niño/winter threads, as well as 87-88 as possible analogs. I think it's a good call to wait and see a bit where the highest SST anomalies and forcing sets up in relation to the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Just looking at accumulated snowfall for this subforum using strong/very strong El-Nino's since 1950..... 97-98 was decent for Kentucky, but pretty meh for a lot of this forum, normal to below normal. 82-83 was quite awful for nearly everyone. 72-73 was normalish for Michigan but below normal for most everyone else. 65-66 was around normal across southern IL, southern IN, SE 1/2 of Ohio, below normal for pretty much everyone else. 57-58 was below normalish as well, although not as bad as the other years, near normal in Ohio. Small sample size but as far as snowfall is concerned strong/very strong El-Nino's are not good for snowfall in the midwest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 This. It's been a while since we've seen a front loaded winter. I don't agree with this. The last couple of winters were actually front AND back loaded. They seemed to start early and end late. Remember last November? Here in Central Ohio we were tracking a winter storm in mid NOV, and had single digit lows after it gave us a few inches. I think we tend to judge the weeks leading up to and including xmas as to whether it's considered front loaded. If winter is brown the impression is it's not a front loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Just looking at accumulated snowfall for this subforum using strong/very strong El-Nino's since 1950..... 97-98 was decent for Kentucky, but pretty meh for a lot of this forum, normal to below normal. 82-83 was quite awful for nearly everyone. 72-73 was normalish for Michigan but below normal for most everyone else. 65-66 was around normal across southern IL, southern IN, SE 1/2 of Ohio, below normal for pretty much everyone else. 57-58 was below normalish as well, although not as bad as the other years, near normal in Ohio. Small sample size but as far as snowfall is concerned strong/very strong El-Nino's are not good for snowfall in the midwest..... Was right around normal snowfall here in 72-73. The east side of the state did better vs climo that winter i do believe? How about 1902-03 and 1897-98? They were also strong if i remember correctly? I know about the others and thus 1899-00, 40-41, 57-58 etc.. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Based off that map, I think I messed up details in my first post, the west based forcing allowed for a favorable position of the Aleutian low and thus a predominantly -EPO as well, and the historic blocking torched eastern Canada, but also locked in troughing for eastern US. 72-73 has been mentioned on New England and NYC Niño/winter threads, as well as 87-88 as possible analogs. I think it's a good call to wait and see a bit where the highest SST anomalies and forcing sets up in relation to the dateline. I think this may be playing somewhat of a role with the -EPO. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n10/full/ngeo2517.html Question is will it be there this winter? Between that and the explosion of snowcover i will wait and see. It could all change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Was right around normal snowfall here in 72-73. The east side of the state did better vs climo that winter i do believe? How about 1902-03 and 1897-98? They were also strong if i remember correctly? I know about the others and thus 1899-00, 40-41, 57-58 etc.. Thanks! Yeah, the south central part of Michigan had a stripe of above normal in 72-73. Not sure about the 1800's but 1902-1903 was normal/above normal for much of the midwest, central Indiana to west-central OH wound up much above normal. NW Michigan, UP, and much of the eastern 3/4 of Wisconsin wound up below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Was right around normal snowfall here in 72-73. The east side of the state did better vs climo that winter i do believe? How about 1902-03 and 1897-98? They were also strong if i remember correctly? I know about the others and thus 1899-00, 40-41, 57-58 etc.. Thanks! 1896-97 was the strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Yeah, the south central part of Michigan had a stripe of above normal in 72-73. Not sure about the 1800's but 1902-1903 was normal/above normal for much of the midwest, central Indiana to west-central OH wound up much above normal. NW Michigan, UP, and much of the eastern 3/4 of Wisconsin wound up below normal. Are you getting maps of this stuff (the snowfall by year)? If so, can you post the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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